Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green.
3- RBI Credit polocy triggered strong rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.32
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-Jan-2012): 18.28

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1596
BSE Declines : 1217
NSE Advances : 888
NSE Declines : 556

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Jan)- -1860000(-40.67%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Jan)- +813500(+12.63%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Jan)- -1397100(-21.00%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Jan)- +1649750(+64.15%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Jan)- +77000(+1.41%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Jan)- +606350(+144.30%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,127.35(+81.10 Points & +1.61%)
Sensex- closed at 16,995.77(+244.04 Points & +1.46%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,954.05(+119.85 Points & +1.75%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,338.01(+44.00 Points & +0.70%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5254
R2 5197
R1 5162
Avg 5105
S1 5070
S2 5013
S3 4978

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5220     Trgt 2
H5 5199     Trgt 1
H4 5177     Long breakout
H3 5152     Go Short
H2 5143
H1 5135
L1 5118
L2 5110
L3 5101     Long
L4 5076     Short Breakout
L5 5054     Trgt 1
L6 5033     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5264
R2 5206
R1 5163
Avg 5105
S1 5062
S2 5004
S3 4961

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5222     Trgt 2
H5 5199     Trgt 1
H4 5175     Long breakout
H3 5147     Go Short
H2 5138
H1 5129
L1 5110
L2 5101
L3 5092     Long
L4 5064     Short Breakout
L5 5041     Trgt 1
L6 5017     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 10473
R2 10195
R1 10016
Avg 9738
S1 9559
S2 9281
S3 9102

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10312     Trgt 2
H5 10200     Trgt 1
H4 10088     Long breakout
H3 9962     Go Short
H2 9920
H1 9878
L1 9795
L2 9753
L3 9711     Long
L4 9585     Short Breakout
L5 9473     Trgt 1
L6 9361     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-01-2012)

Strong rally after RBI Credit policy and after that more than 3 hours trading between 5120-5140. Next resistance range is between 5130-5225. As good run up today therefore its minor correction is firstly possible tomorrow.

Liquidity infusion enthused sentiment

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2012)

Sentiment glittered after RBI cutting CRR by 50 BPS and all the Indices surged. As today opening was positive and traded at higher levels therefore we told at 09:50:00 AM for confirmation through sustaining beyond 5058.

Rally is very much on and Nifty tested 200-Day EMA(5130) today, sustaining above it will be strong indication of all trends turning up as well as more up moves.

Credit policy: RBI cuts CRR by 50 BPS

The Reserve Bank of India in its quarterly review meet on Tuesday cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps to ease tight liquidity pressure in the banking system. RBI kept repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively, despite mounting anxiety over slowdown in growth.

The cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to hold with the RBI, is a popular instrument to inject cash into the system. It now stands at 5.5%.

Tuesday's cut lowers the CRR to 5.50 per cent from 6.00 per cent, where it had stood since April 2010, and releases Rs 32,000 crore ($6.4 billion) of liquidity into the banking system, the RBI said.

Post-open Outlook(24-01-2012)

Last 2 sessions higher levels intraday selling patterns but positive zone trading after Green opening above 5058 today. View of correction possibility is still maintained but news based market today therefore sustaining beyond 5058 should be firstly watched for confirmations.

Correction despite whatsoever RBI Credit Policy tomorrow

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(23-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5044-5058 after Selling between 5035-5053 last Friday
2- Hanging Man like Bearish candle today after Hanging Man / Dragonfly Doji (Bearish)Candle last Friday.
3- Whole day trading between 5030-5058

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Today and last Friday intraday selling positions have been updated above. We don't about RBI Credit tomorrow but expected that Indian markets will finally move down after announcement of Credit Policy. As uncertainity therefore Market may be volatile but until Nifty will not sustain above sustain above 5058 till then any up move will not be considered.

Sustaining beyond following ranges will be next moves confirmation therefore may be watched also for confirmations:-

1- 5030-5058(First strong indication)
2- 5004-5064(Confirmation)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 23-Jan-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 23-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 23-Jan-2012 1579.16 1637.96 -58.8

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 23-Jan-2012 873.05 1311.53 -438.48

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(23-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Flat closing in tight range market.
2- White Candle.
3- All the indices are mixed. Some closed positive while others closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.30
Nifty P/E Ratio(23-Jan-2012): 18.14

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1458
BSE Declines : 1332
NSE Advances : 708
NSE Declines : 734

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Jan)- +529300(+19.11%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Jan)- +950850(+14.24%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Jan)- +181550(+3.96%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Jan)- +951900(+16.91%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Jan)- +612950(+9.76%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Jan)- +320450(+14.13%)


Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,046.25(-2.35 Points & -00.05%)
Sensex- closed at 16,751.73(+12.72 Points & +0.08%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,834.20(+31.05 Points & +0.46%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,294.01(+16.74 Points & +0.27%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5101
R2 5080
R1 5063
Avg 5042
S1 5025
S2 5004
S3 4987

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5084     Trgt 2
H5 5075     Trgt 1
H4 5066     Long breakout
H3 5056     Go Short
H2 5052
H1 5049
L1 5042
L2 5039
L3 5035     Long
L4 5025     Short Breakout
L5 5016     Trgt 1
L6 5007     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5092
R2 5077
R1 5064
Avg 5049
S1 5036
S2 5021
S3 5008

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5079     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5066     Long breakout
H3 5058     Go Short
H2 5056
H1 5053
L1 5048
L2 5045
L3 5043     Long
L4 5035     Short Breakout
L5 5029     Trgt 1
L6 5022     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9827
R2 9743
R1 9638
Avg 9554
S1 9449
S2 9365
S3 9260

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9724     Trgt 2
H5 9681     Trgt 1
H4 9637     Long breakout
H3 9585     Go Short
H2 9568
H1 9551
L1 9516
L2 9499
L3 9482     Long
L4 9430     Short Breakout
L5 9386     Trgt 1
L6 9343     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-01-2012)

Whatsoever happened in Indian markets today all that was written in our Blog well before the opening of today market. We gave only 17 points range(5035-5053) and Nifty traded almost whole time within this range.

It is confirm that big moves will be seen after the break out of this range but very small trading range in news based market today but we shall try to understand from all the analytical tools and then will post our final conclusions and next possibilities before the opening of tomorrow market.

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-01-2012)

Following first indication range was given before the opening of today market in Weekly Outlook:-

1- 5035-5053(First Indication)

Our accuracy of levels can be understood from this fact that today first 4 hours trading range is 5030-5059 with selling indications at higher levels and lower levels supports also therefore today trading range break out and sustaining beyond will give next moves confirmations and will be firstly watched.

Mid-session Outlook(23-01-2012)

First indication range(5035-5053) was given in Weekly Outlook(Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2012) and Nifty traded most of the time within that range after almost flat opening today with selling indications at higher levels.

Full guidances have already been given in 6 topics in last 2 days. Just go through and get next moves confirmations one by one through sustaining beyond already mentioned ranges.

Rally continuation after Correction Completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2012)

321 Points rally in two previous weeks but following headlines of previous weekly Outlooks are live proofs of this fact that we clearly and with full conviction predicted only for Rally and Bullish market  well in advance:

1- Bulls Will Welcome In Next Week(Weekly- Jan 07 to Jan 13,2012)
2- Rally Continuation  in next week after Consolidations(Weekly- Jan 16 to Jan 20, 2012)

-------------------------

Following 5 topics have been posted for complete analysis of next week market therefore just click following topics and understand Indian markets with intraday, EOD and indicators charts analysis:-

1- Survival of Crucial Supports in 14 Months Bear Market
2- Daily Averages and Trends Analysis
3- Overbought Indicators demanding correction
4- Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)
5- Firstly Confirmation through Selling Range Break Out

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

14 Months of correction and after that 108 months sideways market with trend Reversal Broadening Pattern therefore possibility of next rally from this range is strong. Following points are suggesting the possibility of correction:-

1- 61.8%(5068) retracement has been completed.
2- Nifty retraced from 5068 in previous week therefore sustaining beyond this level will be firstly watched.
3- Intraday charts showed selling patterns on 20-01-2012.

Short term indicators are in overbought zone and upper Band of Bollinger band has also being tested therefore short term correction is a demand before next up move. As good intraday selling and Hanging Man(Dragonfly Doji-Bearish) Candle Formation therefore correction is firstly expected in the beginning of next week. Ril news based huge volatility was seen last Friday therefore first of all sustaining beyond following 2 ranges will be seen for next moves confirmations:-

1- 5035-5053(First Indication)
2- 5004-5064(Confirmation)

Following points are suggesting for waiting before correction also:-

1- Indicators have not shown divergence yet.
2- All the Indicators are not in overbought zone.

Resistances at higher levels and supports are at lower levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain beyond any crucilal level till then next moves will not get confirmation.

Sustaining below 5004 will be correction confirmation and sustaining above 5064 will be confirmation of continuation of on going rally. As good intraday selling last Friday therefore correction of 533 points on going rally is expected. Although continuation of rally will be finally seen but correction possibility is very much alive in next week.

Overbought Indicators demanding correction

Daily Indicators Analysis

Nifty- 1 Year EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from indicators analysis are as follows

1- Bollinger Band- Nifty traded continuously at the sharply rising Upper Band line and strongly signalling  the demand of correction.
2- MACD- MACD line is above Average line and both lines have diverged suufciently therefore indicating the demand converge through correction.
3- Slow Stochastic- Over bought and showing possibility of correction after previous week rally.
4- William %R- Over bought and showing possibility of correction after previous week rally.
5- ROC- RSI- Rising but not in over bought zone and no signal of divergence therefore showing scope for some more up moves before correction.
6- RSI- Rising but not in over bought zone and no signal of divergence therefore showing scope for some more up moves before correction.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Indian markets are overbought and on the verge of correction. As divergence is not seen therefore signalling little more up moves possibility before beginning of correction.

Intraday selling indications on 20-Jan-2011 and overbought Indicators demanding correction also but divergence is not seen in indicators therefore follow up positions(buying/selling) in the beginning of coming week will be firstly watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)

Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)

13.0%-4544
23.6%-4736
27.0%-4766
38.2%-4863
50.0%-4966
61.8%-5068
70.7%-5145
76.4%-5195
78.6%-5214
88.6%-5301

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

61.8% Retracement Level is at 5068 and it was tested on 07-12-2012 as well as new bottom at 4532 was formed after retracement from this level. Retesting of same level with double top formation at same level on 20-Jan-2011 and completion of 61.8% retracement also.

61.8% Retracement Level is always most crucial and telling to wait and watch for intraday moves beyond this level therefore will be firstly analysed in the coming couple of sessions for the confirmation of following next moves:

1- Again small to deeper correction, or
2- Continuation of previous week rally with required correction at higher levels.