Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 09 to Mar 13,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

As Wave-3 gained 3277.70 points in 1 year and 1 month and after that the correction which started from 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 completed within 1 month and 25 days after loosing only 1220 points therefore this correction was not previously considered price-wise and time-wise correction of Wave-3 but after this 3 impulsive waves(Wave-i,Wave-iii,Wave-v) and 2 corrective waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) have been seen therefore now Waves structure is being recounted with this correction consideration as Wave-4.

Now correction of Wave-5 is very much on with its recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020 and no indication of its completion yet.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(5th Wave structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion 
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-ii beginning
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion at 12103.05 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-iv beginning
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-5 completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corrcetion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(5th Wave structure)

5th Wave is constituted by its 5 Sub waves of which 3 are impulsive(Wave-i,Wave-iii and Wave-v) and 2 are corrective(Wave-ii and Wave-iv),now correction is on after 5th impulsive Sub Wave completion which is a strong indication of whole 5th Wave correction happening which started from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 

As impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and now its correction continuation therefore firstly 10637.15 should be watched be watched in next week for the depth and life of on going correction. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Wave-5 Trend line)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion 
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 (11760.20 on 28-08-2018)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-5 (10004.55 on 26-10-2018)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 (12103.05 on 03-06-2019)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-5 (10637.15 on 23-08-2019)
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corretion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020
8- Wave-5 corrections trend line broken down and closing below it on 06-03-2020  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Wave-5 Trend line)

A trend line has been drawn at the bottom of both corrective Sub Waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) of Wave 5 and this trend line has been broken down on and closing below it on 06-03-2020 which is a strong signal of on going correction continuation 
 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5-Day SMA is at 11189.1
2- 13-Day SMA is at 11560.4
3- 55-Day SMA is at 12007.1
4- 200-Day SMA is at 11686.0

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Averages)

Nifty closed at 10989.45 on 06-03-2020 with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 same day which is much below above mentioned main averages and that is confirmation of Indian markets weakness.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(9951-12430):-

1- 13.0%- 12107 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 11845 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 11760 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 11483 (Retraced)
5- 50.0%- 11190 (Retraced)
6- 61.8%- 10898 (Retraced)
7- 70.7%- 10677
8- 76.4%- 10536
9- 78.6%- 10481
10-88.6%- 10233 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

61.8% retracement of Wave-5 has been completed last Friday after slipping below 10898. Next 70.7%(10677) is much important because it is just above Wave-iv of Wave-5(10637.15 on 23-08-2019) .As 70.7% retracement level has become crucial there it should be firstly watched in next weak for the life and length of on going correction.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction is very much on and all the trends are down. As such forceful correction after Wave-v of Wave-5 completion therefore it may correct whole 5 waves rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and finished at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020.

Following calculation as per Elliott Wave theory is suggesting that 12430.50 may be the final top of that rally which  from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3  gained.

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3277.70 points(11171.50-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 2478.60 points(12430.50-9951.90)

As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-1 and Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained. Wave-5 correction started after gaining lesser points than  Wave-3 gained as well as Wave-5 correction begun from 12430.50 after completing 5th Sub wave of Wave-5 therefore it means correction begun from 12430.50 after completing all targets of price and waves which means strong signal of Nifty correcting whole rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and this correction will be both Price-wise and time-wise.    

Sub Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and 70.7% retracement level is just above it is at 10677 which should be firstly watched in the coming week for the life and length of on going correction because slipping below it will mean next target of correction at the bottom of Wave-5(9951.90).

Only hope for the bulls is that Short Term indicators have turned oversold and if any positive news come regarding Corona Virus then a strong Pull Back rally will be seen and if such news comes before slipping below 10637.15 then will be good for the health of Nifty because:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-5 will remain intact.  
2- 10637.15 is one of the strongest support because Wave-v of Wave-5 rally started from here after 33 sessions consolidation.
3- Forceful rally started from here after Corporate Tax cut announcements on 20-09-2019. 

Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility which should be firstly watched in the coming weeks. 

11083 will confirm fresh down moves amid Yes Bank negative news and crashing US markets

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(06-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 11245-11292
2- Selling between 11138-11389
3- Last hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- Whole day actual trading between 11245-11389

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after strong opening but lower levels consolidation developed therefore sharp up was seen in Mid-Session. As selling developed at higher levels therefore down moves were seen in last hours which were in Bullish Falling Channels hence lower levels buying and higher levels selling will be understood for today and that will mean Mixed Patterns formation between 11245-11389.

As RBI sets Rs 50,000 withdrawal limit on Yes Bank accounts and Dow Jones is trading more than 1000 points down today therefore SGX Niftry is trading more than 300 points weak below 10950 at this moment but lower levels buying today and immediate supports below today lowest are between 11083-11144 therefore firstly sustaining beyond 11083 should be watched tomorrrow for fresh down moves beginning confirmations.

Levels will confirm next big moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 79 Points down in first 8 minutes
2- More than 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns formation between 11232-11328
3- Consolidation between 11083-11140
4- Up moves in last 2 hours
5- Whole day actual trading between 11083-11356

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although positive opening but not sustaining and slipping 79 Points down in first 8 minutes. As more than 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns formation and not pure consolidation therefore slipping after some more Corona Virus cases finding news but clear consolidation at lower levels therefore up moves were seen in last 2 hours

Supports between 11100-11144 has been updated several times in previous sessions Outlooks and Nifty has not closed below in yet and recover sharply after slipping below it. As follow up consolidation developed within and below it therefore this support range has become stronger and now immediate supports will be understood between 11083-11144 and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then decisive down moves will not be seen.

Last 4 sessions most time trading between 11083-11428 and finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out of this range will confirm next big moves which may be according to final solution or extension of Corona Virus problem and that should be watched otherwise sideways trading within this range will be seen amid uncertainty. 

Firstly watch 11100-11428 amid Corona Virus led all Global markets high uncertainty and volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(04-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Last 3 hours up moves with downward corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 11153-11342

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Asian markets were trading strong after more than 4% US markets rally yesterday therefore good opening of Indian markets and consolidated also whole day firstly through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels and after that last 3 hours up moves with downward corrections hence Indian markets will be understood well prepared for more up moves.

Nifty traded 5 Hours with Mixed Patterns formation between 11315-11428 yesterday therefore more follow up consolidation is firstly required for strong rally above 11428. As all Global markets are being affected from Corona Virus news therefore its next developments should also be firstly watched tomorrow.

Supports range between 11100-11144 was updated on 29-02-2020 and it was repeated yesterday also . As supports above 11100 and resistances below 11428 therefore firstly Nifty will trade within 11100-11428 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves and that will be according to next big developments of Corona Virus which should be firstly watched amid this disease led high uncertainity and volatility in all Global markets. 

Firstly watch next supports range amid Corona Virus panic 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook(03-03-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 5 Hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 11315-11428
2- 381 Points sharp fall in last hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 11037-11428

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all Asian markets with Dow's Futures were trading  strong therefore gap up opening and traded also with more than 1% gains but first 5 hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formation therefore 381 Points sharp fall was seen in last hours because 2 new cases of Corona Virus were found in India.

Next supports range between 11100-11144 was updated on 29-02-2020 in "Just watch next 2 levels for the life of on going correction" and Nifty closed within it at 11132.75 today,firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations amid Corona Virus panic led high volatility and huge fall in most Global markets.

Live Proofs or 100% accurate Outlooks

Only we told for deeper correction on 15-02-2020 and Nifty crashed 900 points in last 2 weeks. 

We again told on 21-02-2020 for correction below 11615/11460.70 was and that was seen up to 11175 on 28-02-2020.

When Nifty was trading above 12100 then following conclusive line was told in the Weekly Outlook of Feb 17 to Feb 21,2020 with its topic name of "Strong signals of deeper correction beginning from next week"

correction is expected in next week which may be deeper also.

When Nifty was trading above 12000 then following conclusive line was told in the Weekly Outlook of Feb 24 to 28,2020 with its topic name of "Correction continuation towards and below next supports"

First strong signal of deeper correction beginning  will be after sustaining below 11909 and that will mean correction continuation towards and below 11615/11460.70 also which will be seen in the coming weeks/months.