Watch Levels amid Parliamentary Election news led high volatility & Short to Intermediate Term correction beginning possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 12 to Feb 16,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Feb-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22126.80 on 02-02-2024.
3- Ascending Channel formations
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 started from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 after corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at this level and now is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22126.80 on 02-02-2024 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
As per Elliott Wave theory maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3) at 22231.95 was explained with its calculations in previous week weekly Outlook(Feb 05 to Feb 09,2024) in the topic named "Watch Levels amid maximum target of on going Wave at 22231.95". It was also told in this topic that on going Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 has gained 3289.00 till now and as per Elliott Wave theory it will not gain more than 3394.15 points which mean that now this wave can not gain more than 105.15 points(3394.15-3289.00). Although now Nifty is trading(Previous closing at 21,782.50) little below its maximum target(22231.95) and recent high(22126.80) but remain watchful and cautious because coming weeks and months may remain Parliamentary Elections news flow led highly volatile.
Now Nifty is moving within Ascending Channel. As its valid break out/down with generate first strong signal of next Trend formations and big moves beginning therefore it should also be watched in the coming weeks and months.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Feb-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Last 7 Sessions actual trading between 21630-22126
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 35.17 & %D(3)- 46.94.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive and negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 91.35 & EXP(9)- -24.75 & Divergence- 116.1
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Position of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is suggesting Short term down moves possibility.
2- As in MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its MACD line is rising in positive zone as well as its Average line is moving flat in negative zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is showing minor signal of upward Short Term Trend formations but not confirming.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Feb-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 21826
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 21696
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 21299
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 20510
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 19777
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is well above Long and Intermediate Term Trend decider(200 and 55-Day SMA) therefore these 2 Trend are up but its Short Term Trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its deciders(5 and 21-Day SMA) therefore firstly sustaining beyond 21696-21826 should be watched in the coming week for Short Term Trend formation confirmations.
Nifty-Last 7 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 01 to Feb 09,2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 7 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 7 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 21716-21818
B- 21947-22018
C- 22029-22126
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 7 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 21711-21769
B- 21666-21741`
C- 21630-21665
3- Last 7 Sessions actual trading between 21630-22126
Conclusions from 7 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As both higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation patterns formations in the last 7 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next Trend and big moves within last 7 Sessions trading range in the coming week. As finally sustaining beyond last 7 Sessions trading range will confirm next big moves beginning therefore it should also be watched in next week for its confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(09-Feb-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Feb-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 149 Points volatility in first hour between 21630-21779
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Sharp up
4- Consolidation between 21711-21769
5- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hours
6- Whole day actual trading between 21630-21804
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
Although flat opening last Friday but firstly 149 Points volatility in first hour last Friday and after that consolidation was seen through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore sharp up moves developed after 2 hours. As good consolidation in Mid session therefore up moves remained continued till last hslf hour but these up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel which is a selling pattern therefore higer levels selling will also be understood despite Nifty closing in Green with 0.30% gains.
As both consolidation and selling has patterns developed last Friday and one sided intraday trading patterns were not seen therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within last Friday trading range in the beginning of next week. Let Nifty to trade and prepare then will be decided according to coming sessions intraday charts formations as well as finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of 21630-21804 will confirm next decisive moves beginning which should also be watched in the next week for its confirmations.
Conclusions (After putting
all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend at stake.
Although impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is now in continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but remain cautious because EOD and intraday selling patterns formations were seen in previous sessions charts as well as as per Elliott Wave theory maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3) is at 22231.95 which is only 105.15 points above the highest of on going Wave-(v) of Wave-3(22126.80).
As above posted resistances of last 7 sessions are last trading resistances(22126) of Nifty therefore once sustaining above last resistances will mean fresh strong rally beginning above life time highest. Next immediate supports below last 7 sessions lowest(21630) are as follows:-
1- 21468-21571
2- 21248-21311
3- 21193-21263
4- 21078-21154
5- 20770-20852
Although indicators are not showing any side bigger decisive beginning indication but selling patterns have been seen in previous sessions EOD and intraday charts therefore Short to Intermediate Term correction may be seen in the coming weeks/months. As Parliamentary Election results are less than 100 away and till then election results news led high volatility may also be seen till Election results announcements as well as selling patterns have also been developed in previous weeks therefore following patterns and levels should be watched for next trend formation confirmations:-
1- Valid break out of "Ascending Channel"
2- Valid break out of last 7 sessions trading range(21630-22126)
3- Sustaining beyond above mentioned supports and resistances of last 7 sessions trading range(21630-22126) one by one.
