Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 23 to Feb 28,2015)

Waves structure from all time lowest formation after world Trade Center attack on 11-09-2001

Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Feb-2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Wave-1 beginning at 854.20 on 21-09-2001(all time lowest formation after world trade center attack on 11-09-2001) .
2- Wave-1 completion and Wave-2 beginning at 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(15 Years highest formation)
3- Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(after 9 months correction completion in 2008)
4- Wave-3 continuation with all time high formations at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015.

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis 

Wave-3 continuation towards following retracement levels:-

[1.382] 7,925(Retracement completed)
[1.414] 8,056(Retracement completed)
[1.500] 8,409(Retracement completed)
[1.618] 8,893(Retracement completed)
[1.764] 9,493
[1.886] 9,994
[2.000] 10,462
[2.236] 11,430
[2.618] 12,998
[3.140] 15,141
[3.618] 17,103

On Long Charts above retracement levels of on going Wave-3 are very much possible in the coming 5 years of our honorable P.M. Narendra Modi and its beginning will be after Union Budget-2015.

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-1 beginning after correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014
2- Wave-1 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015 
3- Wave-2 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015
7- Last 4 sessions sideways trading between 8793-8913

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

All Trends are up and life time high formations at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015. Wave-5 continuation with following immediate supports and resistances:-

1- Supports between 8816-8853
2- Supports between 8795-8838
3- Supports between 8736-8751
4- Supports between 8595-8615
5- Supports between 8554-8574
6- Supports between 8475-8505
7- Resistances between 8880-8894
8- Resistances between 8918-8936

Last 4 sessions sideways trading between 8793-8913 and finally sustaining beyond this range will be first strong signal of next trend and confirmation will sustaining beyond on going Wave-5(8470-8996)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 16 to Feb 20,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 8840-8870 on 16-02-2015
2- Selling between 8850-8861 on 18-02-2015
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 18-02-2015
4- Selling between 8883-8894 on 18-02-2015
5- Selling between 8880-8901 on 19-02-2015
6- Consolidation between 8795-8838 on 19-02-2015
7- Consolidation between 8816-8853 on 20-02-2015 
8- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 20-02-2015 
9- 4 Sessions actual trading between 8793-8913 

 Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 4 sessions trading with both higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves and firstly has to prepare within or near about last 4 sessions range(8793-8913) as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will be first strong signal of next big moves.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-5 is on but Short Term Oscillators are overbought therefore last 4 sessions sideways markets for its cooling down. Both Feb. Derivative expiry and Union Budget in next week and sentiments will remain boiling as well as market will prepare and form positions for post Budget big moves. Although post Budget big moves will be decided from coming 2/3 sessions intraday charts patterns formations but expected that finally up moves will be seen in uncharted region after follow up consolidation in the coming sessions. Although Nifty closed in Red and lowest of the day after last more than 1 hour down moves but consolidation patterns formations were also seen therefore rally continuation hopes are alive. 

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793 but until Nifty will not sustain below it till then View will not be Bearish because many time Supports are broken down under consolidation process. As resistances above previous week closing are not strong and as such selling patterns also have not developed yet to say for any deeper correction therefore Indian markets are well poised for Post Budget rally after high volatility and panic bottoms formations. 

Finally Post Budget Rally will be seen after follow up consolidations. 

Rally Continuation with Minor Corrections possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(20-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8880-8901
2- Sharp down
3- Consolidation between 8795-8838
4- Sharp up in last hours
5- Whole day actual trading between 8795-8913

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling on 16-02-2015 therefore following lines were updated for 18-02-2015 trading in "Firstly Down Moves within Sideways Range Bound Market":-

1- Nifty will firstly slip 
2- finally up moves above today highest(8870) despite firstly down moves possibilities in the coming sessions.

As was told for 18-02-2015 same happened on 19-02-2015 and Finally up moves were seen after firstly down moves.

Although Nifty closed in Green after whole day positive zone trading on 18-02-2015 but even though we were not Bullish and updated following lines in "Cautious View after Mixed Patterns Formations"-

1- sufficient selling patterns were also seen in last 2 sessions
2- view is cautious because sometimes sharp falls are seen after such markets

As was projected 100% same happened on 19-02-2015 and Nifty slipped 93 points sharply from higher levels as well as traded 60 points down within first 2 hours also.

All Trends are up and Indian markets are most Bullish as well as good consolidation was seen today at lower levels therefore rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions. As very Short Term indicators are overbought and first 2 hours selling was also seen on 19-02-2015 as well as consolidation is firstly required before next decisive up moves therefore minor down moves possibility under consolidation process can not be ruled out.

Let selling patterns develop then big correction will also be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 4 years. It must be kept in mind that until complete selling patterns will not develop till then deeper correction will not be seen and view will remain Bullish barring minor intraday or 1/2 sessions minor corrections which may happen any day because oscillators are over bought.

Firstly watch next supports after today Sharp fall

Nifty traded in following manner up to 11:10 AM today:-

Although firstly some up moves but Nifty slipped 93 points from higher levels and traded 60 points down today.

Although sharp fall today but I was expecting well before its happening therefore I told following line yesterday in Cautious View after Mixed Patterns Formations:-

view is cautious because sometimes sharp falls are seen after such markets

Although Nifty closed in Green after whole day positive zone trading yesterday but we were not Bullish but cautious,Just click following link and understand the reasons of ours Bearish Outlook in Bullish markets of yesterday:-

Cautious View after Mixed Patterns Formations

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 8820
2- 8740
3- 8610

First support has been tested today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched now for today started correction completion/deeper correction.

Cautious View after Mixed Patterns Formations

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(19-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- 3 Hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Selling between 8850-8861
4- Selling between 8883-8894
5- Whole day actual trading between 8809-8894

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive line was updated today at 12;59 PM in Mid-session Outlook(18-02-2015):-

"It will be safer that valid break out of 8820-8870 should be firstly watched now for next trend confirmations."

Nifty moved above 8870 but could not sustain and closed just below it at 8869.10 after higher levels selling today.

Technical positions of last 2 sessions are as follows:-

1- Good selling between 8840-8870 on 16-02-2015
2- Both consolidation and selling patterns formations between 8809-8894 on 18-02-2015

Following resistances were updated in previous Outlooks;-

1- Resistances between 8820-8852
2- Resistances between 8918-8936

Above mentioned 1st resistances are between 8820-8852 and selling patterns formations were seen between 8840-8894 in last 2 sessions but consolidation patterns formations were also seen today therefore mixed patterns formations will be understood in last 2 sessions. It means that technically Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves and will have to trade and firstly prepare within or near about 8840-8894.

Although Green closing after whole day positive zone trading today but sufficient selling patterns were also seen in last 2 sessions therefore view is cautious because sometimes sharp falls are seen after such markets and complete consolidation is required for decisive up moves above today highest. Let one sided clear technical positions formations develop and Nifty to sustain beyond 8840-8894 then one sided moves will be seen.

Mid-session Outlook(18-02-2015)

As previous resistances were between 8820-8852 and good selling was also between 8840-8870 on 16-02-2015 therefore firstly down moves were expected but Nifty is trading within above mentioned ranges since opening today with consolidation indications. It will be safer that valid break out of 8820-8870 should be firstly watched now for next trend confirmations.

Firstly Down Moves within Sideways Range Bound Market

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(18-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8840-8870
2- Whole day actual trading between 8793-8870

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following resistances were updated on 13-02-2015 in "9401.50 is Maximum Target of on Going Wave-5 of Nifty":-

1- Resistances between 8820-8852
2- Resistances between 8918-8936

As Nifty traded almost whole day within above mentioned 1st resistance range today with selling patterns formations and this resistance range has been strengthened therefore expected that Nifty will firstly slip towards following supports:- 

1- Supports between 8736-8751
2- Supports between 8595-8615
3- Supports between 8554-8574
4- Supports between 8475-8505

As last 5 sessions trading between 8470-8870 with lower levels supports and higher level selling therefore Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves beyond this range and will remain sideways within this range as well as firstly prepare for next trend within this range.

Although Nifty closed positive but genuine selling at higher levels today therefore Nifty has to consolidate for fresh up moves above today highest and until that will not happen till then next up moves above today highest will not be considered. All trends are up and Indian markets are most Bullish therefore expected that finally up moves above today highest(8870) despite firstly down moves possibilities in the coming sessions.