Sentiment was completely depressed therefore recovery seen for change of sentiment on the back of improved IIP data. Confusion in market on IB report and implications of its leakages. Let it disclose and according to that its seariousness will be known till then confusion only. Voltality remains high in selling markets and today 1% rise may be its part also. 5850-5900 is next resistance and until that will not clear till then any type of next up move will not be considered.
Correction is on and today up moves are only sentiment based therefore any decisive up move will be considered only after confirmations.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Trading Levels for 10-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 10-12-10
R3 6093
R2 6015
R1 5890
AVG 5817
S1 5695
S2 5615
S3 5491
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10
R3 6075
R2 6008
R1 5896
AVG 5825
S1 5711
S2 5642
S3 5525
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10
R3 12014
R2 11813
R1 11496
AVG 11300
S1 10985
S2 10789
S3 10472
R3 6093
R2 6015
R1 5890
AVG 5817
S1 5695
S2 5615
S3 5491
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10
R3 6075
R2 6008
R1 5896
AVG 5825
S1 5711
S2 5642
S3 5525
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 10-12-10
R3 12014
R2 11813
R1 11496
AVG 11300
S1 10985
S2 10789
S3 10472
Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-12-2010)
Following line was told in last conclusive paragraph for yesterday:-
"Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow"
Down move was seen and Nifty cloed 137 points down as well as yesterday lowest was at 4742.
4 days narrow range move after pull back rally was the key and sustaining below it was confirmation of fresh down move toward the low of correction and that was seen yesterday.
ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-
A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)
ABC correction showing daily Chart:-
Long term trend is up. Short and intermediate term trends are down. Intermediate term trend is confirm down and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5561)
I told following lines yesterday:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."
Same lines repeating today also:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."
EOD charts are showing weak structure and complete selling patterns in intraday charts also therefore further down moves possibility can not be ruled out.
Today market moves will depend on on Govt clarification on IB report leakage but finally down moves will be seen. As per my view 200 Day EMA will be next trend decider and lot of process has to be completed for fresh rally. Complete consolidation requires for any type of upmoves and until that will not complete till then any type of rally should not be expected.
"Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow"
Down move was seen and Nifty cloed 137 points down as well as yesterday lowest was at 4742.
4 days narrow range move after pull back rally was the key and sustaining below it was confirmation of fresh down move toward the low of correction and that was seen yesterday.
ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-
A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)
ABC correction showing daily Chart:-
Long term trend is up. Short and intermediate term trends are down. Intermediate term trend is confirm down and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5561)
I told following lines yesterday:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."
Same lines repeating today also:-"yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations."
EOD charts are showing weak structure and complete selling patterns in intraday charts also therefore further down moves possibility can not be ruled out.
Today market moves will depend on on Govt clarification on IB report leakage but finally down moves will be seen. As per my view 200 Day EMA will be next trend decider and lot of process has to be completed for fresh rally. Complete consolidation requires for any type of upmoves and until that will not complete till then any type of rally should not be expected.
India's food inflation rate rises slightly to 8.69%
India's food inflation rate rose slightly to 8.69 for the week ended November 27 from 8.60 in the previous week, an official statement said here today, quoting provisional data.
The statement showed that the inflation rate for fuel remained unchanged from the previous week's level 9.99 per cent in the week ended November 27.
The statement showed that the inflation rate for fuel remained unchanged from the previous week's level 9.99 per cent in the week ended November 27.
Mid-Session Outlook(09-12-2010)
Although global sentiment is little positive but mood depressed in indian markets due to scams. Nifty got intraday support at 5877 and traded up to 5910 as well as showed higher bottom also. AS sentiment dampened therefore fresh selling required today to break 5877 and little up move possibility can not be ruled out Until Nifty does not sustain above 6045 till then any decisive up move will not be considered. Thin volumes lacklustre market today and next trend signal will be drawn from the break out of today first 2 hours range(5877-5915). Upward break out will set up move up to 5945 and below 5877 will mean continuation of that down move which started after breaking down of 4 days narrow range moves.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-12-2010)
View was bullish for yesterday but after watching global sentiments I clearly told my changed view 3 times upto 1st hour of trading yesterday for saving any type of loss:-
1- Firstly told in half hour before opening in Pre-Open Market Outlook-2:- yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.
2- Secondly told within 15 minutes after opening in Post-open outlook:- if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.
3- Thirdly told within 1 hour after opening inPost-Open Outlook-2:- After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.
It has been seen in last 5 sessions that ranges are being broken out and broken down after global cues and different news therefore sustaining beyond has to be seen for confirmations according to 2/3 days closing beyond technical requirements. Nifty closed below 5945 yesterday and if it happens today also then that will be confirmation of breaking down.
Although sustaining below question is left to be replied but It is clear from EOD charts that 4 days narrow range has been broken down and yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations. It seems that last week begun pull back rally has been finished yesterday and expected that Nifty will sustain below 5945 as well as more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.
Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow.
1- Firstly told in half hour before opening in Pre-Open Market Outlook-2:- yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.
2- Secondly told within 15 minutes after opening in Post-open outlook:- if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.
3- Thirdly told within 1 hour after opening inPost-Open Outlook-2:- After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.
It has been seen in last 5 sessions that ranges are being broken out and broken down after global cues and different news therefore sustaining beyond has to be seen for confirmations according to 2/3 days closing beyond technical requirements. Nifty closed below 5945 yesterday and if it happens today also then that will be confirmation of breaking down.
Although sustaining below question is left to be replied but It is clear from EOD charts that 4 days narrow range has been broken down and yesterday intraday charts of Nifty and many pivotal stocks are showing selling formations. It seems that last week begun pull back rally has been finished yesterday and expected that Nifty will sustain below 5945 as well as more down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.
Opening will depend on global cues but sustaining above 5945 not expected and finally down moves toward 5690 expected either from today or tomorrow.
Mid-Session Outlook(08-12-2010)
Indian markets showed complete weakness today and broken down last 4 days range for the reasons below:-
1- US markets lost all the gains and closed flat after Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy yesterday.
2- US futures trading in Red since morning today and more than 45 points down at this moment.
3- Petroleum rates hiking news.
4- China(SSE) .95% and Hangsang 1.5% down.
As sustaining below last 4 days range therefore more down move expected.
1- US markets lost all the gains and closed flat after Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy yesterday.
2- US futures trading in Red since morning today and more than 45 points down at this moment.
3- Petroleum rates hiking news.
4- China(SSE) .95% and Hangsang 1.5% down.
As sustaining below last 4 days range therefore more down move expected.
Post-Open Outlook-2(08-12-2010)
After watching today down force it is expected that Nifty will not able to sustain above 5945.
Post-Open Outlook(08-12-2010)
Last 4 days trading range broken down by force after weaker Asian cues and US futures today therefore if Nifty sustains below 5945 then it will be termination of last week started pull back rally.
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT ON 07-12-2010)-US FUTURES & ASIAN MARKETS ARE WEAK TODAY MORNING THEREFORE COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5975
Pre-Open Market Outlook-2(08-12-2010)
US markets lost all intraday good gains after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy and closed flat therefore sentiment completely depressed and most Asian markets are Red today morning. Indian markets will trade within yesterday range first after negative opening today. Indian markets got good support at lower levels yesterday and technically up move signals are visible also but yesterday trading range(5945-5990) should be kept in mind for next up move confirmations.
3 Bullish Signals
1- MACD upward intersection of average line
2- Last 4 sessions range bound consolidations.
3- Upward break out of falling channel
2- Last 4 sessions range bound consolidations.
3- Upward break out of falling channel
6091 in on cards
Pre-Open Market Outlook(08-12-2010)
Last 4 sessions trading range is 5945-6065. Nifty slipped below 5965 but could not sustain and recovered as well as closed above. Last 4 sessions closing is as follows:-
1- 03-12-2010- 6012
2- 04-12-2010- 5993
3- 06-12-2010- 5992
4- 07-12-2010- 5977
Trading has been so close in last 4 sessions that closing has been within 35 points. Although Nifty closed at the lowest yesterday in last 4 sessions but daily candle is bullish Hammer with intraday consolidation patterns and rounding bottom formations.
1- Rounding Bottom Formations Chart-
MACD turned positive after intersecting average line upward and good consolidation seen yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will break out last 4 days range sustain above 5065 and test 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement level(6091) in the coming sessions. It seems that last 4 sessions narrow range moves will finally proove consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will clear both next resistance ranges and will test last resistance range in this month:-
1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(last resistance range)
Positive market and Green closing expected today.
Last 4 sessions trading range is 5945-6065. Nifty slipped below 5965 but could not sustain and recovered as well as closed above. Last 4 sessions closing is as follows:-
1- 03-12-2010- 6012
2- 04-12-2010- 5993
3- 06-12-2010- 5992
4- 07-12-2010- 5977
Trading has been so close in last 4 sessions that closing has been within 35 points. Although Nifty closed at the lowest yesterday in last 4 sessions but daily candle is bullish Hammer with intraday consolidation patterns and rounding bottom formations.
1- Rounding Bottom Formations Chart-
1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(last resistance range)
Positive market and Green closing expected today.
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 07-12-2010-TRADE
NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5964-TGT-6064-CMP-6015
NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-5964-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6015
NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-5964-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6015
Pre-Closing Outlook(07-12-2010)
Range bound trading within 5945-5995 today.first 4 hours suggesting consolidation formation but could not sustain at higher level also therefore view is cautious and more confirmation required for fresh up move. Last 4 sessions indicating both buying and selling patterns and until Nifty does not sustain beyond 5945-6065 till then no confirmation.
As intraday charts are showing more consolidation formation therefore my view is turning bullish but little more confirmations are required yet.
As intraday charts are showing more consolidation formation therefore my view is turning bullish but little more confirmations are required yet.
Mid-Session Outlook(07-12-2010)
Nifty dipped 5965 and it is strong down move indication. Sustaining below 5965 will be next down move confirmation.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-12-2010)
For deciding next moves following factors will be kept in mind:-
1- Pull back rally is on.
2- Selling indication were seen during last 2 sessions in Last week.
3- Indian markets opened strong after positive Asian markets cues Yesterday and slipped from higher levels in "Water Fall Pattern"(Bullish Formation) in last 4 hours.
4- Consolidation was required after above mentioned last week selling indications which were seen at higher levels yesterday.
5- Yesterday higher levels slipping was attributed to rates hikes affected Banking sector down fall.
Nifty closed flat at 5992 yesterday. Last 3 sessions are suggesting:-
1- Selling indication within 5975-6020
2- Consolidation within 5980-6070 yesterday(as "Water Fall Pattern" therefore consolidation)
6015 is key and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications and Indian markets will prepare its near about for next moves in the coming sessions. Although slipped from higher levels yesterday but consolidation patterns in last 4 hours therefore 6015 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications.
Now next moves confirmation broader range is 5965-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it in the coming sessions for next moves and sustaing beyond 6015 is first strong indication point of next moves.
Although confirmations required but view turning bullish after watching "Water Fall Pattern" yesterday.
1- Pull back rally is on.
2- Selling indication were seen during last 2 sessions in Last week.
3- Indian markets opened strong after positive Asian markets cues Yesterday and slipped from higher levels in "Water Fall Pattern"(Bullish Formation) in last 4 hours.
4- Consolidation was required after above mentioned last week selling indications which were seen at higher levels yesterday.
5- Yesterday higher levels slipping was attributed to rates hikes affected Banking sector down fall.
Nifty closed flat at 5992 yesterday. Last 3 sessions are suggesting:-
1- Selling indication within 5975-6020
2- Consolidation within 5980-6070 yesterday(as "Water Fall Pattern" therefore consolidation)
6015 is key and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications and Indian markets will prepare its near about for next moves in the coming sessions. Although slipped from higher levels yesterday but consolidation patterns in last 4 hours therefore 6015 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond will give next moves indications.
Now next moves confirmation broader range is 5965-6065 and Nifty will prepare within it in the coming sessions for next moves and sustaing beyond 6015 is first strong indication point of next moves.
Although confirmations required but view turning bullish after watching "Water Fall Pattern" yesterday.
Mid-Session Outlook(06-12-2010)
Almost all the Asian markets are in green and Indian markets responding it with trading in positive zone. Nifty sustaing above 6025 since opening today and cleared previous strong resistance. Nifty next expected target is 6091
Post-Open Outlook(06-12-2010)
Strong opening and sustaining above 6025. Fresh up moove expected on the lines explained in weekly.
NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6045
NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-MESSAGE
NIFTY DEC FUT(SHORTED ON 03-12-2010)-MARKET MAY BE VOLATILE THEREFORE PLEASE COVER AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE
Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-12-2010)
Most Asian markets are positive therefore sentiment good today morning. Some banks hiked deposit and lending rates in last 2 days and some others are expected to follow in the coming week. Indian markets will respond these developments today and decide derection.
If Nifty sustains above 6025 then that will be confirmation of next up move. Let confirmation come then positions should be taken accordingly.
If Nifty sustains above 6025 then that will be confirmation of next up move. Let confirmation come then positions should be taken accordingly.
Weekly Analysis- 06-12-2010 to 10-12-2010
Following lines were told on 27-11-2010(Saturday) which prooved 100% accurate:-
"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"
278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-
1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.
2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-
23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728
1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-
Conclusions
As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.
5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.
"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"
278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-
1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.
2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-
23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728
1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-
As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.
5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.
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