8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8337-8356
2- Consolidation between 8269-8331(Immediate Supports)
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8334-8346
4- Whole day actual trading between 8269-8392

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing but whole day good consolidation therefore Pull Back Rally possibility in the beginning of next week

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 started)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following most positive news flow in March Derivative series:- 

1- Market Friendly Union Budget on 28-02-2015.
2- RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015.  
3- Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, 2015 was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 13-03-2015.
4- Positive news of rates hike delaying in FOMC on 18-03-2015 night.

Surprising most encouraging news of RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 and new life time high formation also same day but that correction beginning which remain continued till the last day on March Derivative series. 

Nifty traded 4 sessions between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015 within 8521-8627 with intraday consolidation patterns but this range was forcefully broken down on 26/03/2015 because all the Global markets were most depressed due to following negative news:-

1- Saudi Arabia launches air strikes in Yemen.
2- Greece Crisis enhancement news because Greece cash crisis takes turn for worse.

Indian markets also reacted negative and Nifty closed 209 points down on 26/03/2015 as well as gave Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation after slipping below 8470.50. As above mentioned 4 sessions trading was with consolidation patterns and this range was broken down due to negative news therefore if follow up consolidation develops in next week after intraday consolidation on 27-03-2015 then sustaining above 8627 will give strong indication of correction completion.

As selling developed after above mentioned encouraging and positive news and following resistances have developed at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is also required rally continuation:- 

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

At present Short and Intermediate term trends are down and Long Term Trend is still up,its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8111. Wave-5 started from 7961.35 and it is just below 8111 therefore these 2 levels become most crucial. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet as well as some more down moves possibilities can not be ruled out therefore sustaining beyond 8111 / 7961.35 sould be watched in the coming week / weeks for deciding the fate of Long Term Trend. It should be kept in mind that Wave-1 started from  5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its 5th Wave completion confirmation on 26/03/2015,if Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8111) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace that rally which started from  5118.85.

As Oscillators are oversold and good intraday consolidation on 27/03/2015 therefore Pull Back rally in expected in the beginning of next week but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and if it happens near about following retracement levels that will be first strong signal of correction completion:-  

1- 0.707%- 8300(Retraced and closing above it on 27/03/2015 )
2- 0.764%- 8234
3- 0.786%- 8208
4- 0.886%- 8093

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

Correction confirmation and 8109/7961 will decide Long Term Trend

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(27-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8436-8499
2- Sharp down in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9326-8499

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following weekly analysis topic was posted on 22-03-2015:-

Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week

As intraday charts of last 4 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore it was expected that Impulsive Sub Wave-1 will remain continued and finally fresh rally will start after follow up consolidation today despite weakness in US and European markets yesterday but  I proved wrong because Sentiment turned most depressed today morning because US markets closed near the lowest of the day yesterday after last hour sharp down. Resultant  gap down opening of Indian markets was seen and Impulsive Sub Wave-1 failing confirmation in first minute today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. As Dow's Futures slipped more than 160 points and European markets also slipped after opening therefore no respite for Indian markets and whole day crashing like situation was seen today.

Short Term Trend was already down and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50 and it means correction continuation confirmation from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Wave-5 started from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and its completion confirmation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015(on RBI Rates cut day) therefore Nifty will firstly correct that rally which started from 7961.35. Long Term Trend is still up and its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8109. As 7961.35 is just above 8109 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8109 / 7961.35 will decide the fate of Long Term Trend. 

Wave-1 started from  5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 completion confirmation today. If Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8109) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace whole that rally which started from  5118.85 and these levels should be watched in the coming weeks for Long Term Trend confirmations.

As Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day after 1/2 sessions lower levels consolidation but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and following retracement levels of Wave-5 should be firstly watched in the coming 1/2 sessions for Pull Back rally:-  

[0.618] 8,403.3600(Retraced today but Most crucial level)
[0.707] 8,300.2900
[0.764] 8,234.2900
[0.786] 8,208.8100
[0.886] 8,093.0100

Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2015)

Most positive news flow in March Derivative series but correction beginning and Bullish Waves structure failed on the expiry day of settlement today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. Certainly I proved wrong and as per Elliot Waves Theory Waves should be recounted in such situations. Whole Waves structure will be understood on long Charts and then will be updated accordingly.

Finally positive closing Possibility after 5th Session follow up Consolidation 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(26-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Minor selling patterns formations
4- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8516-8573

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were posted on 22-03-2015 in weekly analysis topic in Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week:- 

1- firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next big moves between 8470.50-8640
2- Until Nifty will not slip below 8470.50 till then mentioned Waves structure will maintain and possibility of Sub Wave-3 formations will remain alive for fresh up moves above the top of Sub Wave-1(9119.20)
3- Semi Final between Bulls & Bears will be played between 8470.50-8640 in Next week and its break out will decide their big victory.

Following lines were told on 22-03-2015 in Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20:-

it seems that Indian markets have entered into consolidation phase and follow up consolidation in the coming sessions will Mean Bulls will play Final match with 9119.20.

Following lines were told yesterday in Fresh rally possibility above 8640:-

1- consolidation patterns were also seen today and complete consolidation was seen on 20th and 23rd Mar therefore fresh up moves hopes above 8640 are alive but follow up consolidation is must in the coming 2/3 sessions
2- Emergence of fresh up moves signals after broken out of  8470.50-8640 but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640. 

Although some selling patterns formations but on the other hand consolidations patterns were also seen today and Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel which is good intraday consolidation therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are under  consolidation phase because sufficiently good consolidation patterns were seen in last 3 sessions also. 

As US markets are in deep Red and Dow Jones is trading more than 200 points down and most European markets closed more than 1% down as well as SGX Nifty is trading 58 points down therefore if such depressed closing will be seen in US markets today then sentiment may be completely depressed tomorrow morning and all Asian markets will possibly trade in negative zone. In such dampened sentiments initial weakness in Indian markets can not be ruled out but we can not ignore last 4 sessions consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will not slip below 8470.50 and finally Indian markets will close positive after follow up 5th session consolidation. 

Fresh rally possibility above 8640

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(25-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Selling patterns formation between 8578-8602
3- Minor consolidation between 8547-8563
4- Mixed Patterns formations at higher levels between 8601-8627 
5- Minor consolidation between 8538-8550
6- High Volatility 
7- Whole day actual trading between 8535-8627

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20:-

1- emergence of fresh up moves signal 
2- follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and up moves started immediately after opening as well as Nifty traded 77 points up today. It was clearly told that follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640 and Nifty could not move above 8640 because follow up consolidation was not seen but on the contrary following selling patterns were also seen in first 4 hours today:-

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
2- Selling patterns formation between 8578-8602

As lower levels consolidation and Mixed Patterns formations at higher levels with 92 points high volatility was also seen in last more than 2 hours today therefore view will not be Bearish despite today closing near the lowest of the day today because Technical positions reverses also in such today like high volatility.

Following lines were told on 22-03-2015 in Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week:-

firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next big moves between 8470.50-8640 for following decisive big moves:-

1- Once slipping below 8470.50 will mean Sharp fall
2- Sustaining above 8640 after complete consolidation will mean first strong signal of Sub Wave-3 formation towards new life time high above 9119.20

Although selling patterns formations in first 4 hours today but consolidation patterns were also seen today and complete consolidation was seen on 20th and 23rd Mar therefore fresh up moves hopes above 8640 are alive but follow up consolidation is must in the coming 2/3 sessions.

As today Candle is Inverted Hammer / Gravestone Doji Bullish and adding of one more signal of up moves on today EOD chart therefore increasing of fresh rally possibilities after getting supports above 8470.50.

Finally following almost same conclusion which updated yesterday:-

Emergence of fresh up moves signals after broken out of  8470.50-8640 but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640. Once sustaining above it will mean fresh up moves with emergence Sub Wave-3 formation possibility for rally above 9119.20 in the coming weeks/months despite last 3 sessions closing near the lowest of the day.

Bulls Final Match Possibility with 9119.20

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(24-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8560-8582
2- Down moves after weak opening of European markets.
3- 5 Waves of Bullish Falling Wedge formations in last hours
4- Double bottom Supports in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 8540-8608

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although down moves after at 01:35 PM and negative closing today but following points will also be considered:-

1- Down moves after at 01:35 PM was due to weak opening of European markets.  
2- As such selling patterns were not seen today.
3- 2 Hours good consolidation between 8560-8582
4- 5 Waves of "Bullish Falling Wedge formations" in last hours
5- Double bottom Supports in last hour

As above consolidation Patterns formations also seen today therefore it will be understood that Indian market has started consolidation because whole day all "Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels" were seen last Friday also.

As good consolidation patterns formations in last 2 sessions therefore it seems that Indian markets have entered into consolidation phase and follow up consolidation in the coming sessions will Mean Bulls will play Final match with 9119.20.

We clearly mean that emergence of fresh up moves signal but follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8640 and once sustaining above it will mean fresh up moves with emergence Sub Wave-3 formation possibility for rally above 9119.20 in the coming weeks/months.

Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 23 to Mar 27,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- All Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 8553-8627

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day down moves in a complete negative zone trading day and 0.74 down closing but as selling patterns formations were not seen but on the contrary Down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel which is a consolidation pattern therefore firstly Bounce Back possibility in the beginning of next week.

Long Term Trend is up, Intermediate and Short Term Trends turned down despite most positive following news:-

1- Market Friendly Union Budget on 28-02-2015.
2- RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015.  
3- Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, 2015 was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 13-03-2015.
4- Positive news of rates hike delaying in FOMC on 18-03-2015 night.

As selling developed after such encouraging positive news therefore following resistances have developed at higher levels:- 

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

For EOD Charts analysis Just click following previous Week Analysis Topic:-

Sustaining beyond 8672 will decide the fate of on going Correction

Following crucial conclusions were updated in above topic:-

1- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 20 sessions and Neckline at 8672
2- Corrective Sub Wave-2 is on and expected that technically it should complete near about or above 8543 and impulsive Sub Wave-3 should start for fresh up moves above the top of Sub Wave-1(9119.20).

Corrective Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completed at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015 and Impulsive Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Corrective Sub Wave-2 started and now it is in continuation. 

Last 2 supports of Impulsive Sub Wave-1 are as follows:- 

1- 8590-8640(Broken down)
2- 8484-8580

Although 1st support was broken down and closing below it on 20-03-2015 but intraday consolidation patterns were seen same day therefore minor signal of correction completion because fresh consolidation was seen in last support ranges of Impulsive Sub Wave-1. As positive news based selling at higher levels therefore follow up complete consolidation is firstly required for Corrective Sub Wave-2 completion and  Impulsive Sub Wave-3 beginning. Until Nifty will not slip below 8470.50 till then mentioned Waves structure will maintain and possibility of Sub Wave-3 formations will remain alive for fresh up moves above the top of Sub Wave-1(9119.20).

Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started from 8470.50 on 10-02-2015 and its 0.886%(8543.99) retracement has been almost completed in previous week. As supports between 8484-8640 and intraday consolidation was also  seen last Friday therefore firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next big moves between 8470.50-8640 for following decisive big moves:-

1- Once slipping below 8470.50 will mean Sharp fall
2- Sustaining above 8640 after complete consolidation will mean first strong signal of Sub Wave-3 formation towards new life time high above 9119.20

Semi Final between Bulls & Bears will be played between 8470.50-8640 in Next week and its break out will decide their big victory.

हिन्दू नव वर्ष "विक्रम संवत 2072" की आप सभी को हार्दिक शुभकामनाएँ !

Wishing you all Happy Hindu New Year
"Vikram Samvat 2072"