Finally fresh up Moves after follow up consolidation amid Global markets Bearishness

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7536-7606

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day negative zone trading with closing below the Neckline(7600) of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern and also below last 11 sessions lowest(7582) but as such selling patterns were not seen and on the contrary consolidation through down moves in Bullish Falling Channels also developed today therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are under consolidation process and fresh up moves will be seen very shortly after its completion. 

As all the European markets slipped fast after 01:30 PM and Dow's Futures also lost 80 points therefore in reaction Indian markets tumbled and breaking down confirmation of 7582/7600 is still required despite today closing below these levels. 

As Dow Jones is now trading more than 120 points down and all the European markets are also in Red therefore if such Global markets Bearishness remains continued till tomorrow then in reaction some volatility may be seen in Indian markets also but expected that finally fresh up moves will be seen after follow up consolidation near about and between 7536-7635 because last 2 sessions intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations.

First indication of yesterday started correction completion

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(07-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 7592-7610
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 7592-7635

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Watch last 2 Hopes of Bulls":-

following 2 last hopes for Bulls remained alive:-

1- Today closing was above 7600 which is Neckline of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern.
2- Today lowest(7588.65) and closing is above Last 9 sessions trading range(7582-7777).

Two levels of 7582 and 7600 was given and Nifty honoured both levels through not slipping below 7582 (today lowest at 7591.75) and closing above 7600 at 7614.35 today.

Whole day sideways trading within 43 points with only consolidation patterns formations therefore first indication of yesterday started correction completion. As finally sustaining beyond 7582-7635 will be next decisive moves confirmation therefore should be firstly watched tomorrow for following moves:-

1- Below 7582 will mean correction beginning confirmation of Post Budget 952 points rally.
2- Above 7635 will mean up moves towards 7777 and once sustaining above it will mean strong rally towards the target(8374.20) of Inverse Head And Shoulders.

Firstly Watch last 2 Hopes of Bulls

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(06-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sideways trading between 7706-7733 before RBI Credit Policy
2- High volatility after RBI Credit Policy
3- Whole day actual trading between 7588-7733

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As some selling yesterday therefore firstly weak opening of Indian markets and after that sideways trading between 7706-7733 before RBI Credit Policy but high volatility immediately after its announcements and 55 points sharp recovery was also seen after sharp fall because there was nothing adverse in policy because MSF rate was also reduced by 75 basis points with 25 BPS Repo Rate cut.

As Dow's Futures slipped 145 points and most European markets were also more than 2% down therefore whole day down moves remained continued in Indian markets and closing was near the lower levels of the day but following 2 last hopes for Bulls remained alive:-

1- Today closing was above 7600 which is Neckline of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern.
2- Today lowest(7588.65) and closing is above Last 9 sessions trading range(7582-7777)

Although 2% down markets today but not due to RBI Credit Policy but on the back of most depressing all Global markets and firstly sustaining beyond 7600/7582 should be watched tomorrow for today started correction continuation/completion and it should also be kept in mind that deeper correction will be seen only after sustaining below 7582. 

Next Short Term Trend Confirmation through Crucial Levels amid RBI Rates Cut Uncertainty 

Post-open Outlook(05-04-2016)

Although Nifty closed near the higher levels of the day yesterday after gaining 45 points but intraday charts of yesterday have shown some selling patterns formations also therefore we told following line yesterday in "Final Confirmations of next Short Term Trend from 7582-7777":-

"possibility of some down moves after RBI Credit Policy can not be ruled out tomorrow" 

Some down moves were told after RBI Credit Policy but down moves have been seen immediately after opening today and Nifty traded 42 points down within first minute of today trading.

Down moves as per our expectations have already been seen but a big event is ahead in which RBI will cut rates by 25 BPS and if 50 BPS or more is announced then some up moves amid high volatility will be considered but sustaining above 7777 is must. 

Some down were projected for today which have already been seen. certainly rates cut uncertainty but Post RBI Credit Policy moves will be decided according intraday charts patterns formation up to 10:45 AM today and next Short Term Trend confirmation will be according to valid break out of following crucial levels:-   

1- 7667-7777(first signal)
2- 7582-7777(final confirmations)

Final Confirmations of next Short Term Trend from 7582-7777

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling between 7730-7737
2- Minor support between 7705-7710
3- Minor selling between 7757-7764
4- Whole day actual trading between 7705-7764

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 03-04-2016 in "Expectations of Rally above 7777 after complete follow up Consolidations":-

1- Nifty will firstly prepare for such moves on next Monday between 7667-7777 
2- finally rally above 7777 is still expected after complete follow up consolidations tomorrow

Nifty traded within mentioned range(7667-7777) between 7705-7764 and closed also 45 points up today but complete follow up consolidation was not seen despite today closing near the higher levels of the day. As clear selling patterns formations on 31-03-2016 therefore as such good consolidation was required which could not develop but some selling was also seen today therefore possibility of some down moves after RBI Credit Policy can not be ruled out tomorrow. 

As Mixed patterns formation in last 3 sessions between 7667-7777 therefore next decisive moves will be firstly understood from Pre RBI Credit Policy trading hours intraday patterns formations tomorrow. High volatility may also be seen tomorrow after Mixed patterns formation in last 3 sessions therefore following trading ranges should be watched for next Short Term Trend confirmations because some times technical positions reverses also amid high intraday volatility:-

1- Last 3 sessions between 7667-7777
2- Last 9 sessions between 7582-7777(final confirmations)

As last 9 sessions trading between 7582-7777 with lower levels supports and higher levels resistances as well as Neckline(7600) of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern is lying within this range therefore once sustaining beyond this range will confirm the validity of this pattern and resultant following decisive moves will be seen beyond this range:-

1- Above 7777 will mean strong rally towards the target(8374.20) of Inverse Head And Shoulders.
2- Below 7582 will mean correction beginning confirmation of Post Budget 952 points rally.

Expectations of Rally above 7777 after complete follow up Consolidations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 04 to Apr 08,2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Support between 7667-7681(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves with intraday correction.
4- Whole day actual trading between 7667-7740

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following lines were told on 28-03-2016 in "Finally Rally continuation after follow up Consolidations in the coming Sessions":-

1- Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern formations in 48 sessions with its Neckline at 7600 
2- Neckline was broken down with closing above it on 28-03-2016 therefore firstly sustaining beyond Neckline(7600) should be watched in the coming sessions because confirmation of sustaining above it will mean next target of Nifty at 8374.20.

Following lines were told on 31-03-2016 in "Cautious View after Clear Selling Patterns Formations Today":-

1- clear selling patterns formations between 7755-7777 today
2- RBI Credit Policy on 05-04-2016 and Nifty will prepare in next 2 sessions for next decisive moves after its announcements.
3- View will be wait and watch for next 2 Pre-RBI Policy sessions 

Clear selling patterns formations between 7755-7777 was told 31-03-2016 and Nifty traded whole day below it on 01-04-2016 but lower levels supports with intraday consolidation patterns were also seen on on 01-04-2016 therefore Nifty will firstly prepare in the beginning of next week near about and between 7667-7777 for next big trend after RBI Credit Policy on 05-04-2016 because immediate supports and resistances are lying within this range. 

Last 8 sessions trading between 7582-7777 with lower levels supports and higher levels resistances as well as Neckline(7600) of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern is lying within this range therefore once sustaining beyond this range will confirm the validity of this pattern and resultant following decisive moves will be seen beyond this range:-

1- Above 7777 will mean strong rally towards the target(8374.20) of Inverse Head And Shoulders.
2- Below 7582 will mean correction beginning confirmation of Post Budget 952 points rally and then following supports and retracement levels will be watched for its completion:-

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7518-7568
2- 7410-7443
3- 7347-7375

Fibonacci Retracement levels of Post-Budget Rally(6826-7777)

1- 13.0%- 7,653
2- 23.6%- 7,552
3- 27.0%- 7,520
4- 38.2%- 7,413(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,301(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7,189(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7,104
8- 76.4%- 7,050
9- 78.6%- 7,029 
10-88.6%- 6,934  

Certainly Indian markets are going to decide next more than 5% big moves in the beginning of next week and its trigger will be RBI Credit Policy on 05-04-2016. Nifty will firstly prepare for such moves on next Monday between 7667-7777 and let it happen then next trend will get confirmations through intraday patterns formations analysis but finally rally above 7777 is still expected after complete follow up consolidations tomorrow despite negative closing on 01-04-2016 and clear selling patterns formations on 31-03-2016 because lower levels good supports in last 8 sessions and as such selling was not seen.