Most crucial level will confirm 

next one sided big moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly 

Outlook(May 16 to May 20,2022)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020  

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021

6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.

7- Almost 7 months sideways correction between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 begun after previous Waves structure Wave-C completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and news Waves structure started which completed after its impulsive Wave-5 completion with new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction commenced. Now "ABC" correction continuation which is at present sideways between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.

2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021

3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022.

4- Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022

5- Pull Back Rally completion at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and correction beginning.

6- Pull Back Rally correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022 

7- Almost 7 months sideways correction between 15672-18604 with bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022

8- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over bought zone

9- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 11.63 & %D(3)- 13.01.

10- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.

11- MACD(26,12)- -593.58 & EXP(9)- -406.85 & Divergence- -186.73

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Although "ABC" correction continuation with its Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022 but after that strong Pull Back Rally developed which completed at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022 and its correction begun and now that is in continuation with bottom formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022 as well as no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts. 

As Pull Back Rally correction bottom is at 15735.8 and it is little above Wave-C bottom(15671.5) as well as "ABC" correction has turned sideways between 15672-18604 for the last almost 7 months therefore if Nifty slips below 15671.5 then as per Elliott Wave Theory above mentioned correction Waves structure will turn invalid therefore has to be recalculated.

As Stochastic is now completely Oversold therefore suggesting short term up moves indications but MACD is clearly showing downward trend. Let down moves stop and up moves begin then firstly a Short term Pull Back rally will be considered but without Nifty slipping below Wave-C bottom(15671.5).

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at   16060

2- 21-Day SMA is today at  16834

3- 55-Day SMA is today at  16970

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 17197

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 17251

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

As all the shorter Term averages have moves below their longer Term averages and Nifty has closed below all the averages at 15782.15 last Fiday therefore confirming complete weakness in Indian Stock markets. 

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

All the trends are down and Indian markets are completely in Bearish mode. Last 7 months correction has turned sideways between 15672-18604 with recent bottom formation formation at 15735.8 on 12-05-2022. Next supports and resistances within this sideways trading range(15672-18604) as follows:-

Next and last supports are as follows:-

1- 15672-15846

Next immediate resistances are as follows:-

1- 15823-15925

2- 16011-16083

3- 16165-16222

4- 16256-16304

5- 16335-16404

Last supports of 7 months sideways correction range(15672-18604) are between 15672-15846 and Nifty closed within it in both previous sessions at 15808.0 on 12-05-2022 and at 15782.1 on 13-05-2022. As Wave-C bottom is at 15671.5 which is just below the bottom of last supports(15672) and 7 months sideways correction range(15672) therefore 15672 has become most crucial because:-

1- Sustaining below 15672 will mean 7 previous months like big trading range break down.

2- Sustaining below 15672 will mean break down of last supports of 7 previous months trading range.

3- Slipping below 15671.5 will mean previous corrective Waves structure becoming invalid because as per it Wave-C bottom was at 15671.5 and corrective Waves structure will be recounted. 

As Short Term Indicators are Oversold therefore suggesting some up moves possibilities in Short Term but above mentioned multiple resistances are lying and let nifty to sustain above 5th resistance top(16404) then decisive up moves will be seen and sustaining below 15672 will mean deeper correction beginning. First signal of these moves will be after sustaining beyond supports between 15672-15846 therefore it should be carefully watched in next week because deeper correction beginning most crucial level is the bottom(15672) of these supports and it will confirm next one sided big moves.

 Deeper correction on cards & remain cautious

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(13-05-2022)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves after huge gap down opening

2- Selling between 15823-15925

3- Volatility in last 2 hours between 15736-15836

4- Whole day actual trading between 15736-16041

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Global markets were in crashing mode before the opening of Indian markets therefore firstly down moves were seen after huge gap down opening and fresh selling also developed between 15823-15925 hence new intraday low formations in last hours. 

Although volatility in last 2 hours between 15736-15836 and some supports also at lower levels therefore Nifty will firstly trade within this range but huge selling at higher levels and complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 15925.

Supports between 15672-15846 were posted in previous Outlooks and Nifty got supports within this range above 15736 as well as remained volatile in last 2 hours within this range therefore this support range has become most crucial and firstly sustaining beyond this supports range should be watched in the coming sessions. 

As 15671.5 is the bottom of on going "ABC" correction and slipping below 15672 will mean deeper correction beginning after its new bottom formation therefore remain cautious because deeper correction is on cards below this level.

 Firstly watch sustaining beyond 16000 amid Global markets huge volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Minor up moves after positive opening

2- Down moves with upward corrections

3- Slow up moves

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Up moves with downward corrections 

6- Selling between 16165-16222

7- Whole day actual trading between 15993-16318

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly up moves after positive opening but after that down moves were seen with upward corrections which means fresh selling. As consolidation developed through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in Mid-sessions therefore after that Up moves were seen which were also with downward corrections hence consolidation will be understood in Mid-session.

As fresh selling in last hour between 16165-16222 and selling was seen in first hour also therefore down moves will also be seen towards today lowest. Consolidation was seen above today lowest(15993) therefore firstly fresh selling is required for sustaining below it. Once sustaining below it will mean deeper correction beginning because it will confirm break down of psychological levels of 16000 and it was tested today also therefore sustaining it beyond should also be watched in the coming sessions for next big moves beginning confirmations amid Global markets huge volatility.

 Watch 16143 for next trend confirmations amid huge Global markets volatility 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(11-05-2022)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Consolidation between 16287-16329

3- Selling between 16335-16404

4- Sharp fall in last hour

5- Whole day actual trading between 16198-16404

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although consolidation in first 3 hours but higher levels good selling therefore sharp fall in last hour because higher levels selling was seen yesterday also. 

As higher levels good selling but consolidation was also seen above 16143 in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations amid huge Global markets volatility because Dow Jones Futures traded most time 200 posiitve during Indian trading hours and now trading more than 250 points down.

 Firstly watch today lowest amid rising Geo-Political tension

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(10-05-2022)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-May-2022):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slipping after gap down opening

2- Consolidation between 16143-16202

3- Consolidation between 16217-16266

4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

5- Down moves with upward corrections

6- Consolidation between 16217-16266

7- High volatility in last hour

8- Whole day actual trading between 16143-16403

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Global markets remained in crashing mode whole day since morning today therefore firstly slipping after gap down opening but lower levels consolidation developed hence strong up moves were also seen. 

Higher levels selling also developed firstly through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel and after that Down moves with upward corrections in Mid-session and High volatility in last hour therefore whole day today trading will be understood Mixed Patterns formation between 16143-16403.    

As Geo-Political tension is rising daily after 75 days old Russian-Ukraine war and emergence of war extension possibility to other European countries also therefore firstly sustaining beyond today lowest(16143) should be watched because consolidation was seen above it today and let Nifty to sustain above today highest only then decisive up moves will be considered otherwise down moves will be seen towards those next supports which have been updated is previous Outlook today morning. 

 Watch next supports amid Global markets depressing situation

Post-open Outlook(09-05-2022)

As crashing Global markets in following manner today morning therefore sentiment is extremely dampened and resultant gap down weaker opening of Indian markets:-

1- Dow Jones Futures is trading 386 points down

2- All the main Asian markets are trading 1% to 2% down

Firstly sustaining beyond following supports should be watched for next decisive moves amid such Global markets depressing situation:-

1- 16098-16152

2- 15966-16019

3- 15672-15846