Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 13 to Apr 17,2015)

Nifty-Weekly Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(Correction beginning after 15 Years highest formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(9 months correction completion and Wave-1 beginning)
3- Wave-1 (6335.90 on 08-11-2010)
4- Wave-2 (4531.15 on 20-12-2011)
5- Wave-3 (life high formations at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015)

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

Impulsive Wave-3 continuation,it has extended above 1.618% and its next extension levels are as follows:-

1- 1.618%- 8,858(extension completed)
2- 1.764%- 9,454
3- 1.886%- 9,952
4- 2.000%- 10,418
5- 2.236%- 11,381
6- 2.618%- 12,941

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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 Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Correction beginning after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. As 850(more than 9%) points correction and a strong signal of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole that 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20.

Broadening Rising Channel Formations in last 8 months

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Broadening Rising Channel formation started on 08-08-2015 and since then rally continuation within this channel. As Rising Channel therefore it is a Bearish pattern and its valid breaking down will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because Channel is such 8 months long. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore view is cautious and sustaining beyond lower rising line of this channel should be watched in the coming weeks for first strong signal of next Long Term Trend.

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and correction beginning
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally continuation(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015
9- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8153

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 8269.15 and after that Pull Back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8787.40 but correction completion confirmation is still required. Long Term Trend is up and its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8153 which is 627 points below previous close therefore no threat to Long Term Trend at this moment.

Waves structure of on going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
2- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
3- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
4- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
5- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B(8788.20)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Wave-B completed at 8788.20 and recent top formation of on going Pull Back rally is at 8787.40 on 10-04-2015 which is just below the top of Wave-B therefore 8788.20 has become crucial now because that will decide Intermediate Term Trend which is sideways between 8269-8788 for the last 15 sessions and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 & Apr 10,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels consolidation between 8683-8728 on 09-04-2015
2- Higher levels selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015
4- Most time good selling between 8754-8787 on 10-04-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8683-8787

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Although lower levels some supports but higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility as sell as sustaining below last 2 sessions lowest(8683) will mean steep fall.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8761-8781
2- Selling between 8754-8768
3- Selling between 8777-8787
4- Whole day actual trading between 8733-8787

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

54 Points sideways market in previous trading sessions(10-04-2015) with closing near the higher levels of the day but almost whole day selling patterns formations therefore strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction started after Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 and last 8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel which is such long Bearish pattern also therefore valid break down of its lower Rising line will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because in that situation Nifty may correct following big rallies:-

1- 5118.85 from 28-08-2013(because valid break down will its 5th wave completion confirmation)
2- 4531.15 from 20-12-2011(because valid break down will its 3rd wave completion confirmation)

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions,finally sustaining beyond this range will be strong indication of next decisive moves. Although previous session and week closing near the higher levels of the day day/week but good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week. Next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond Intermediate Term deciding levels(8269-8788) and should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks.

8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(10-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8683-8714
2- Consolidation between 8702-8728
3- Selling between 8740-8763
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8683-8785

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following line was told yesterday in "Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility":-

As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680)

Following lines were told today at 07:50:00 AM in "Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)":-

1- India’s Rating Outlook Raised by Moody’s on Economic Prospects
2- As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets
3- Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news

As selling yesterday therefore Very Short Term down moves possibility was told and it was seen immediately after opening and Nifty slipped 73 points in first hour but from higher level because most positive news and Nifty got supports at 8682.45 which was  just above yesterday lowest(8680)

Although good supports at lower levels today but selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today therefore some more consolidation like today is firstly required for next decisive up moves.

Following resistances were updated in Outlooks of previous sessions:-

1- 8738-8788(strong)
2- 8805-8825(weak)
3- 8920-8943(weak)
4- 9023-9096(strong)

1st resistance has been almost cleared today but some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must. Once forceful break out / sustaining above 8825 will mean possibility of fast 100 points rally and emergence of correction completion hopes also after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations.

Certainly 8825 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond it should be firstly  watched now for next Big moves confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(09-04-2015)

Sentiment is strong today morning after following news:- 

India’s Rating Outlook Raised by Moody’s on Economic Prospects

Rally is on but some selling patterns were seen yesterday therefore very Short Term down moves possibility was considered for today market. As most positive news today morning therefore gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets. Markets are tend to consolidate at higher levels after such strong news and this possibility can not be ruled out because Long and Short Term Trends are up and rally is on.

Very Short Term Down Moves Possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (8-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8700-8716 in first hour.
2- Mixed Patterns between 8700-8730 in last 4 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8680-8730

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly selling and after that Mixed Patterns formations in last 4 hours therefore an indication of some down moves. Next resistances are 8738-8825 and selling seen just below it today. As more selling is required for decisive therefore follow up selling tomorrow will mean correction of last 7 sessions rally between 8269-8730.

As some selling today therefore very Short Term down moves possibility with slipping below today lowest(8680) can not be ruled out but sustaining below it is must after complete follow up selling for correction beginning.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(08-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8662-8693(Immediate Resistances)
2- Consolidation Patterns between 8586-8617(Immediate Supports) 
3- High volatility after RBI Credit Policy.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8586-8693

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel were seen yesterday  therefore following conclusive lines were told yesterday in Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy:-

firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;- 

1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion. 
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.

Nifty slipped below 8627 but without required force after negative sensing unchanged RBI Credit Policy and lower levels consolidation was also seen today therefore some up moves were seen in last hour. As first hour selling between 8662-8693 and next resistances are just above it between 8738-8825 therefore firstly follow up consolidation is required for next decisive up moves.

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8825. Certainly positive indication after closing above 8627 after consolidation below it between 8586-8617 therefore Pull Back Rally continuation will be expected towards 8825. Let Nifty sustain above 8825 after complete follow up consolidation then rally above life time high will be considered after Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations. 

As we were neither Bullish nor Bearish for today Credit Policy therefore we updated only Crucial levels yesterday and same view today that Nifty will firstly prepare for next trend between 8586-8825 in the coming 2/3 sessions but Pull Back Rally will be seen within sideways market. Let Nifty prepare then next trend will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations in the coming sessions.

Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(07-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost 4 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns between 8574-8600 
2- Last more than 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8574-8667

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following resistances were updated 04-04-2015 in "Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time":-

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

Importance of 8521-8627 was told in almost all the Outlooks of last 1 week and Nifty closed above it today but as such consolidation patterns were not seen at lower levels and last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel as well as today closing is within above mentioned 1st resistance range therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;- 

1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion. 
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.