Levels will confirm next big moves amid US Bond yield led huge volatility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 08 to Mar 12,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Wave-1 gained 4283.20 points

4- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

5- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time highest top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

7- Wave-3 has gained 4641.60 points which are more than Wave-1 gained

8- Correction continuation with recent last Friday bottom formation at 14467.75 on 26-02-2021 which is below last 24 sessions lowest.

9- Last 24 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-3 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021 because:-

1- last Friday closing is below Short Term averages(5,13,and 21 SMA) 

2- Last 24 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421 with higher levels good intraday selling within this range.

3- As Wave-3 has gained more points than Wave-1 then it may correct to form Wave-4.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement )

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time highest top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement Fibonacci retracement levels)

Wave-3 correction beginning confirmation will mean its continuation according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-3(10790.20-15431.8):-

1- 13.0%- 14,828.40(Corrected)

2- 23.6%- 14,336.34

3- 27.0%- 14,178.60

4- 38.2%- 13,658.68(Crucial)

5- 50.0%- 13,110.97(Crucial)

6- 61.8%- 12,563.27(Crucial)

7- 70.7%- 12,150.20

8- 76.4%- 11,885.60

9- 78.6%- 11,783.50 

10-88.6%- 11,319.30 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 73.29 & %D(3) is at 73.10

2- Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone through moving down when Nifty is moving up.

3- Last 24 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421

Conclusions from EOD 

chart analysis (Stochastic)

As Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone therefore signalling Short Term Correction and its beginning confirmation will be after sustaining below last 24 sessions sideways trading range lowest(14468).

Nifty-Last 25 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Febr 01 to Mar 05,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 25 Sessions intraday charts

1- Union-Budget day rally on 01-02-2021

2- Last 24 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421

3- Selling(Resistances) in last 24 Sessions are between:-

A- 15007-15092  

B- 15145-15196

C- 15213-15245 

D- 15274-15315

E- 15335-15431  

3- Consolidation(Supports) in last 24 Sessions are sessions:-

A- 14788-14855

B- 14663-14742

C- 14504-14615

Supports below last 24 sessions trading range are as follows:-

 

A- 13817-13865 

B- 13725-13776

C- 13606-13701

Conclusions from 25 Sessions 

intra day chart analysis 

Strong 701 points rally was seen on Union-Budget day(01-02-2021) and after that Nifty traded sideways last 24 sessions between 14468-15421. 

As above mentioned 5 resistances and 3 supports exists in last 24 sessions trading range therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within this range and finally sustaining beyond last 24 sessions trading range(14468-15421) will generate big moves which will be seen in next week/weeks.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(05-Mar-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours selling between 15007-15092(immediate Resistances)

2- Sharp fall

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels 

4- Whole day actual trading between 14863-15092

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly 4 Hours selling between 15007-15092 therefore sharp fall was seen after that. Although some up moves were seen in last hour but in  Bearish Rising Channels hence these up moves will be understood follow up selling. 

Immediate resistances of Nifty have been developed between 15007-15092 last Friday and until Nifty will not sustain above 15092 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen. 

As last Friday whole day trading will be understood with selling patterns formations therefore sustaining below 14863 will mean sharp fall towards next supports.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.

3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 14468-15421.

Nifty has turned sideways for the last 24 sessions between 14468-15421 after Union-Budget day(01-02-2021) strong 701 points rally and finally sustaining beyond this range will form following next trend:-

1- Above 15421 will mean strong rally but complete consolidation is firstly required because multiple resistances are lying below it.

2- Below 14468 will mean Short Term correction continuation towards above given next supports and Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-3(10790.20-15431.8).

As intraday charts of last Friday are showing good selling therefore firstly some down moves are expected in the beginning of next week hence sustaining beyond next supports should be firstly watched in next week. 

US Bond yield led huge volatility is being seen in all the Global and Indian markets and finally sustaining beyond last 24 sessions trading range(14468-15421) will confirm its impact on Indian markets which should be watched for next big moves confirmations.

 Firstly watch levels amid Global 

markets led huge volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(05-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Global cues led whole day only intraday volatility

2- Whole day actual trading between 14981-15202

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Global markets led too much depressed sentiments today morning therefore firstly weaker opening of Indian markets and after that whole day only intraday volatility and as such one sided trading positions formations were not seen therefore firstly sustaining beyond following immediate supports and resistances should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations because Dow Jones which was trading more than 200 points up 2 hours before is now trading more than 390 points down also:-

Supports:-

1- 15062-15081

2- 15016-15034

3- 14788-14855(Strong supports)

   

Resistances:-

1- 15274-15315

2- 15335-15431 

 Down moves towards next supports after Global markets led depressed sentiments

Pre-open Outlook(04-03-2021)

As Bond yield increased in USA yesterday therefore Dow Jones futures is trading in Red today morning after negative closing yesterday hence all the Asian markets are trading 1% to 1.60% weak today and resultant now SGX Nifty is also more than 220 points down.

As Global markets led such depressed sentiments today morning therefore firstly down moves will be seen in Indian markets also towards following next supports and sustaining beyond should be firstly watched today:-

1- 15062-15081

2- 15016-15034

3- 14788-14855(Strong supports)

 Rally continuation towards next resistances 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(04-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with downward corrections

2- Whole day actual trading between 14996-15273

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day up moves with downward corrections after gap up opening and intraday selling patterns were not seen therefore on going rally continuation will be considered towards following next resistances.

1- 15274-15315

2- 15335-15431 

 Sustaining above 14919 will mean sharp up

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(03-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels

2- 160 Points sharp fall

3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

4- Consolidation between 14788-14855

5- Sharp up in last hour

6- Whole day actual trading between 14751-14959

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly Up moves after gap up opening but in Bearish Rising Channels therefore 160 points sharp fall. As these Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and after that more than 2 hours lower levels consolidation therefore sharp up in last hour.

Resistances between 14856-14919 were updated on 28-02-2021 and consolidation was seen below it today therefore Nifty moved above it but closed at 14919.10 and sustaining above 14919 is must for fresh rally because gap resistances above it are still up to 15065.

As good consolidation between 14788-14855 today therefore until complete selling will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen below 14788 and fresh consolidation tomorrow with sustaining above 14919 will mean sharp up towards 15065 which should be firstly watch tomorrow.

Live proofs of our Levels accuracy

Following lines were told at 11:57 PM yesterday in "Firstly watch 14919 amid Bullish Global cues sentiments led up moves":-

1- firstly sustaining beyond next resistance range(14856-14919) should be watched tomorrow. 

2- Until Nifty will not sustain above 14919 till then decisive up moves will not be considered

Firstly watch 14919

 was told yesterday

 & 

today closing is at 

14919.10

 Firstly watch 14919 amid Bullish Global cues sentiments led up moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(02-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up

2- Selling between 14777-14806

3- Sharp down

4- Consolidation between 14639-15708

5- Selling between 14753-14774

6- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

7- Whole day actual trading between 14639-14806

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Jones futures was trading more than 200 points up today morning therefore all the Asian markets were more than 1% up and resultant strong opening of Indian markets and closed 01.60% up because ta the time of Indian markets closing Dow Jones futures was trading more than 300 points up and all the European markers more than 1% up.

Although Global cues led 01.60% Green closing today but higher levels some selling was also seen after lower levels consolidation and today trading will be understood with  Mixed Patterns formation.  

As Dow Jones is now trading more than 600 points up and such storng closing will mean Bullish sentiment tomorrow morning and then firstly sustaining beyond next resistance range(14856-14919) should be watched tomorrow. Until Nifty will not sustain above 14919 till then decisive up moves will not be considered because some selling patterns were seen today and up moves are only due to Bullish Global cues sentiments led.

 Firstly watch 14635-14696 for next Short Term moves confirmations

Post-open Outlook(01-03-2021)

As Bond yield decreased in USA therefore Dow Jones futures is trading more than 200 points up since today morning hence all the Asian markets are more than 1% up and resultant strong opening of Indian markets.

Immediate next resistances are between 14635-14696 and Nifty hovered around it in first half hour today,firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today for next Short Term moves confirmations.

Correction continuation towards much deeper supports

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 01 to Mar 05,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time highest top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Correction continuation with recent last Friday bottom formation at 14467.75 on 26-02-2021 which is below last 19 sessions lowest.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time highest top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021 because recent last Friday bottom formation formation below last 19 sessions lowest.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

3- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14467.75 on 26-02-2021

4-Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14798

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 15028

C- 21-Day SMA is today at 14893

D- 55-Day SMA is today at 14364

E- 200-Day SMA is today at 12126 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Averages)

As last Friday closing was below 5,13 and 21 SMA therefore indications of Indian markets weakness deepening and firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(14364) should be watched in next week for the life of on going correction.

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis (Stochastic)

Nifty-Weekly Chart (26-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

3- Correction continuation with 2 continuous weekly Black Candles formation

4- Stochastic %K(5) is at 73.54 & %D(3) is at 75.03

5- %K(5) intersected %D(3) downward 

6- Stochastic is showing negative divergence in over bought through moving down when Nifty is moving up.

Conclusions from Weekly chart

analysis (Stochastic)

Correction is very much on and indications of more down moves because:-

1- 2 weekly Black Candles formation continuously.

2- Above mentioned No 5 & 6 developments on Weekly Stochastic. 

Nifty-Last 20 Sessions intraday 

charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 01 to Feb 26,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 20 Sessions intraday charts

1- Union-Budget day rally on 01-02-2021

2- Last 19 sessions trading between 14468-15421

3- Selling(Resistances) in last 19 Sessions are between:-

A- 14635-14696 

B- 14856-14919 

C- 15125-15176

D- 15213-15245 

E- 15274-15315

F- 15335-15431  

3- Consolidation(Supports) in last 20 Sessions are sessions:-

A- 14504-14615(Last Friday closing was within at 14529.15) 

B- 13817-13865 

C- 13725-13776

D- 13606-13701

Conclusions from 20 Sessions 

intra day chart analysis 

Strong 701 points rally was seen on Union-Budget day(01-02-2021) and after that Nifty traded last 19 sessions of Feb 2021 between 14468-15421. As good selling in last 9 sessions therefore last Friday closing was near 19 previous sessions lowest. 

As multiple resistances have developed in last 9 sessions therefore expected that more down moves will be seen towards above mentioned supports in next week.  

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(26-Feb-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14856-14919

2- Down moves

3- Selling between 14635-14696

4- Down moves

5- Whole day actual trading between 14468-14919

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As first 2 hours selling after gap down opening therefore after that down moves were seen. Again follow up selling in last hours hence closing at lowest of the day after last half hour down moves.

Whole day selling last Friday and no consolidation therefore correction continuation is expected in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.

3- Short Term Trend is down.

As last Friday closing was below short term Averages and Weekly Stochastic is also suggesting more down moves therefore last 2 weeks old correction continuation is expected in next week. Remain cautious also because once sustaining below 14468 will mean sharp fall because it will be breaking down confirmation of 19 sessions trading range and next supports are much below it.

55-Day SMA is today at 14364 and sustaining below it will mean Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmation which indicates correction life from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore this levels should be firstly watched in next week for the period of on going correction.

As good intraday selling in last 9 sessions and no consolidation last Friday therefore on going correction will remain continued towards above mentioned supports which are much deeper.