19800 will confirm strong rally 

above life time top at 20222.45

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly 

Outlook(Oct 09 to Oct 13,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Oct-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 and Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023.

3- Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at at 19223.7 on 31-08-2023.   

4- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent and life time top formations at 20222.45 on 5-09-2023 but Short Term correction beginning from this level. 

6- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. 

7- Last 10 sessions sideways trading between 19333-19798

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started after from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 after corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at this level. Now impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 of this this Waves structure is in continuation with recent and life time top formations at 20222.45 on 5-09-2023 but Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent recent bottom formations at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. As last 10 sessions trading has turned sideways between 19333-19798 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next Trend formation and big moves therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Oct-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 51.38 & %D(3)- 37.55.

3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative and positive zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- -147.25 & EXP(9)- 46.73 & Divergence- -193.98

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone therefore indicating previous week started up moves continuation in the coming week.

2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative and positive zone therefore this indicator is showing stronger indications of Short term Trend formations.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Oct-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19560 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19778

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19623

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 19264

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18517

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Although Nifty showed stronger indications of Intermediate Trend turning downward after forcefully slipping below its decider 55-Day SMA but strong recovery was seen from lower levels in last 3 sessions of previous week and and Nifty has closed above 55-Day SMA(19623) at 19653.50 last Friday. As Intermediate Trend is at stake and finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will generate strong signals of next Trend formation and decisive moves beginning hence should be firstly watched in next week. 

Short term trend is down and if Nifty moves above 55-Day SMA(19623) then finally sustaining beyond Short term trend decider 21-Day SMA(today at 19778) should be watched for its confirmations. It should also be kept in mind that once sustaining above 21-Day SMA will mean Rally above life time highest(20222.45) after all trends turning upward and on going correction completion confirmations.

Nifty-Last 10 Sessions

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 22 to Oct 06,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 19660-19679

B- 19692-19751

C- 19763-19798 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 19592-19615

B- 19488-19540

C- 19343-19774

3- Last 10 Sessions actual trading between 19333-19798 

Conclusions from 10 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Last 10 Sessions sideways trading between 19333-19798 with above mentioned supports and resistances which seems to be almost equally strong and last Friday closing was also almost in the centre of last 10 sessions trading range therefore it will be understood that:-

1- Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next big moves within and last 10 sessions trading range in the beginning of next week.

2- Finally sustaining beyond last 10 sessions trading range will confirm next Trend formations and big moves beginning.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.

3- Short Term trend is down.

Correction of Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 from 20222.45 on 5-09-2023 after life time top formations at this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but few signals of its completion have been emerged in previous week:-

1- Weekly Candle of previous week was "Bullish Hammer" 

2- Weekly closing of previous week was both above 5-Day and 55-Day SMA.

3- Forceful recovery was seen from lower levels in previous week.

4- Intraday consolidation patterns and supports were seen at lower levels in all the last 3 sessions of previous week.

As Short Term Indicator Stochastic is showing signals of previous week started up moves continuation in the coming sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched in next week:-

1- 21-Day SMA(today at 19778)

2- Top of last 10 Sessions trading range at 19798.

As finally sustaining above these 2 levels will mean 10 sessions trading range break out and all trends turning upward confirmations as well therefore finally sustaining above psychological level of 19800 should be watched for fresh rally beginning above life time top(20222.45) because psychological level of 19800 is little above these 2 levels(19778 & 19798).

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 

19488-19576

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(06-10-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Oct-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels

2- Supports between 19488-19500(immediate supports)

3- Sharp up

4- Selling between 19551-19576

5- Whole day actual trading between 19488-19576

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although gap up strong opening but firstly down moves were seen. As these down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels and after that lower levels some supports also developed therefore sharp moves were seen. Minor selling also at higher levels in last hours therefore expected that firstly sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched in the coming sessions because any side good intraday positions were not seen.

 As busy therefore unable to update today(05-10-2023) Outlook. 

 Down moves expectations below

 day's lowest

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(04-10-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Oct-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 104 Points down in first 3 minutes after flat opening

2- Whole day sideways trading with selling Patterns formation between 19480-19564

3- Whole day actual trading between 19480-19623

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

At the time of Indian markets opening most Asian markets were trading in negative zone and some were deeply down in following manner

Nikkei 225- was trading 537.50 points and 1.69% down.

Hang Seng- was trading 617.66 points and 3.47% down.

SET- was trading 19.89 points and 1.35% down.

As sentiment turned dampened due to crashing like situation in Asian markets therefore Nifty has fallen 104 Points in first 3 minutes after flat opening. After that whole day sideways trading with selling Patterns formation between 19480-19564 therefore down moves are expected below day's lowest(19480) in the coming sessions.

Finally 19493-19798 will confirm next trend amid firstly up moves expectations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 03 to Oct 06,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Sep-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.

6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023.

7- Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at at 19223.7 on 31-08-2023.   

8- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent and life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 but Short Term correction beginning from this level. 

9- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19492.10 on 28-09-2023. 

    

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. impulsive Wave-1 completed at  18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 started.

 

At present impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent and life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 but Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19492.10 on 28-09-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Sep-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 39.54 & %D(3)- 31.06.

3- Stochastic is showing negative/positive divergence

4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.

5- MACD(26,12)-33.87 & EXP(9)- 250.24 & Divergence- -216.37

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Stochastic & MACD)

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone therefore showing signals of fresh up moves beginning in the coming week.

2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone as well as its MACD line is little above Zero line therefore suggesting stronger indications of downward trend formations. Divergence between its both lines has widened to 216.37 therefore some up moves also can not be ruled out hence this indicator is suggesting to adopt wait and watchful approach for final confirmations.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Sep-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19644 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19761

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19628

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 19216

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18498

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Nifty is hovering around both Short and Intermediate Term deciding Averages(5-Day SMA,21-Day SMA and 55-Day SMA) for the last 6 sessions therefore Short and Intermediate Term trends are at stake. Let one sided clear intersection of these Averages happen then that side trend formations and decisive moves beginning will get confirmations.  

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(29-Sep-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Sep-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 19552-19604

2- Sharp up 

3- Consolidation between 19653-19682

4- Selling between 19705-19726

5- Sharp fall in last hour

6- Whole day actual trading between 19552-19726

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after flat opening but lower levels consolidation developed therefore sharp up moves were seen after 11:00 AM. As follow up consolidation in Mid-session therefore after that some up moves were seen but higher levels fresh selling therefore Nifty had fallen more than 100 points in last hour,

As good intraday consolidation in comparison to selling therefore finally up moves are expected above last Friday highest(19726) but consolidation is also firstly required because some selling was also seen at higher levels last Friday.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.

3- Short Term trend is at stake.

Short Term correction of impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation now with recent bottom formations at 19492.10 on 28-09-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts. 

Although Nifty had moves below 61.8%(18605) crucial retracement level during on going correction and hovered around Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 19628) in previous week but closed above both these levels last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond both these levels will be watched in the coming week for the life of on going correction.

As Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of fresh up moves beginning in the coming week and last Friday intraday charts are showing good consolidation also therefore firstly up moves are expected towards next resistances in the beginning of next week:- 

1- 19705-19726

2- 19761-19797

Next supports below last Friday closing are as follows:-

1- 19552-19604

2- 19493-19556

As Nifty traded in last 6 sessions between 19493-19798 with above mentioned supports and resistances in which Nifty has tested and broken down 2 most Crucial levels(61.8% retracement level & Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA) as well as both these levels are within last 6 sessions trading range therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for next big moves beginning after following next trend formation confirmations:- 

1- Sustaining above 19798 will mean strong rally beginning towards and above life time top(20222.45) after all trends turning upward confirmations.

2- Sustaining below 19493 will mean all trends turning downward confirmations and down moves continuation towards the bottom of Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3(19223.7).

As last Friday intraday charts and Short Term indicator Stochastic are suggesting firstly up moves beginning possibility therefore firstly up moves are expected in next week but finally sustaining beyond 19493-19798 will confirm next trend therefore should be finally watched for next trend confirmations.