As good recovery in Indian Rupee from intraday lower levels therefore Indian markets are up but slow up moves and with Bearish Rising channel since opening today therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above next resistances range(5450-5475).
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook(23-08-2013)
Resistances above today higher levels between (5450-5475) and Nifty is preparing for next moves just below it between 5380-5452 with intraday volatility firstly and emergence of selling signals also.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations.
2- Sharp up moves beginning after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM.
3- Follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations between 01:00-02:00 PM.
4- Last 1 hour up moves in Bearish Rising Wedge formations.
5- Whole day trading between 5255-5418
Whole day up moves after lower levels consolidations and some more consolidation was also seen in mid session but sharp up moves started after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM and sudden 50 points jump of Dow'Jones Futures after 12:15 PM. Although follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations also seen between 01:00-02:00 PM but today up moves were on the back of strong Global cues and last 1 hour up moves were in Bearish Rising Wedge formations therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above today highs and next resistance range(5450-5475).
All trends are down and Indian markets are in confirm Bear phase,today like Bounce Back may be seen any day because Short Term Indicators are oversold and Volatility remains high in Bear markets. Until complete consolidation will not be seen minimum on Daily charts till then any decisive up move will not be seen. Follow up selling and sustaining below next resistance range(5450-5475) will mean fresh down moves to test next support range(5210-5270) or below it also.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations.
2- Sharp up moves beginning after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM.
3- Follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations between 01:00-02:00 PM.
4- Last 1 hour up moves in Bearish Rising Wedge formations.
5- Whole day trading between 5255-5418
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Whole day up moves after lower levels consolidations and some more consolidation was also seen in mid session but sharp up moves started after strong opening of European markets at 12:30 PM and sudden 50 points jump of Dow'Jones Futures after 12:15 PM. Although follow up Bullish Falling Channel consolidation pattern formations also seen between 01:00-02:00 PM but today up moves were on the back of strong Global cues and last 1 hour up moves were in Bearish Rising Wedge formations therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above today highs and next resistance range(5450-5475).
All trends are down and Indian markets are in confirm Bear phase,today like Bounce Back may be seen any day because Short Term Indicators are oversold and Volatility remains high in Bear markets. Until complete consolidation will not be seen minimum on Daily charts till then any decisive up move will not be seen. Follow up selling and sustaining below next resistance range(5450-5475) will mean fresh down moves to test next support range(5210-5270) or below it also.
Pre-Closing Outlook(22-08-2013)
Firstly lower levels and after that follow up consolidations in last 2 hours therefore continuation of Pull Back Rally. Next resistances are between 5450-5475 and sustaining beyond it will be watched in the coming sessions for the fate of today started rally.
Mid-session Outlook(22-08-2013)
Following support range was updated on 19-08-2013 in "Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months":-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Nifty got supports between 1st support range after weak opening and recovered after lowest formation at 5254.05. As Short Term Indications are oversold and some consolidation between 5263-5310 therefore Bounce back is being seen and next resistances are between 5450-5475.
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Nifty got supports between 1st support range after weak opening and recovered after lowest formation at 5254.05. As Short Term Indications are oversold and some consolidation between 5263-5310 therefore Bounce back is being seen and next resistances are between 5450-5475.
Expected that Nifty will remain range bound between 5263-5475 in the coming sessions and will prepare for next Short/Intermediate Term Trend within this range.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(22-08-2013)
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(21-Aug-2013):-
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8 Day EMA is at- 5492
21 Day EMA is at- 5637
55 Day EMA is at- 5761
200 Day EMA is at- 5764
2- Bollinger Band- Lower Band moving down with the slipping of Nifty and indicating some up moves.
3- Slow Stochastic- Entering into oversold zone.
4- MACD- MACD line is below Average line and gap widen between both lines near oversold line
5- ROC- Entering into oversold zone.
6- RSI- Entering into oversold zone.
- Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis
Although most indicators are entering into oversold zone but not deeply oversold and positive divergence also not seen yet therefore some more down moves are still left before trend reversal and the beginning of any decisive up move.
Mid-session Outlook(21-08-2013)
Although Nifty was more than 100 points up within 1st minute today but we were not Bullish and cautioned in previous Outlook as well as gave confirmation level also. Following lines were told today at 09:42:00 AM in Post-open Outlook:-
1- As Bearish markets remain highly volatile therefore today up moves may be a part of volatility also.
2- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.
Following line was told yesterday in Mid-session Outlook-3 and Pre-Closing Outlook:-
1- Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360.
1- As Bearish markets remain highly volatile therefore today up moves may be a part of volatility also.
2- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.
Following line was told yesterday in Mid-session Outlook-3 and Pre-Closing Outlook:-
1- Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360.
Today lowest is at 5361.10 after loosing more than 140 points today and steep fall will be seen after valid break down below 5360/5306 as well as its high possibility.
Post-open Outlook(21-08-2013)
Although mixed intraday patterns in last 2 Sessions between 5306-5465 but whole day good consolidation was seen on 19-08-2013 therefore up moves seen today. As Bearish markets remain highly volatile therefore today up moves may be a part of volatility also.
11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.
11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation and its neckline(at 5477.20) was broken down on 19-08-2013,Nifty is hovering it around at this moment and firstly sustaining beyond it should be watched for next Long Term Trend confirmations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(21-08-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 19 & Aug 20,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 19-08-2013
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400 on 19-08-2013
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 20-08-2013
4- Selling between 5405-5415 on 20-08-2013
5- More than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed patterns in last 2 sessions.
6- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5306-5465
As most depressing news flow(Indian Rupee weakening by 2% and weaker Global markets) therefore Nifty slipped more than 100 points within first 2 minutes but strong recovery from lower levels also because whole day good consolidation yesterday. More than 2 hours consolidation between 5360-5400 yesterday and more than 5 hours trading within this range today with higher levels selling.
It is clear from last 2 sessions trading that both consolidation and selling seen between 5306-5465 and more than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed intraday patterns therefore Indian markets are not mature for any side decisive moves and will firstly prepare for next moves between 5360-5420 and sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for next Short Term Trend confirmations.
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1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 19-08-2013
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400 on 19-08-2013
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 20-08-2013
4- Selling between 5405-5415 on 20-08-2013
5- More than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed patterns in last 2 sessions.
6- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5306-5465
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
As most depressing news flow(Indian Rupee weakening by 2% and weaker Global markets) therefore Nifty slipped more than 100 points within first 2 minutes but strong recovery from lower levels also because whole day good consolidation yesterday. More than 2 hours consolidation between 5360-5400 yesterday and more than 5 hours trading within this range today with higher levels selling.
It is clear from last 2 sessions trading that both consolidation and selling seen between 5306-5465 and more than 8 hours trading between 5360-5420 with mixed intraday patterns therefore Indian markets are not mature for any side decisive moves and will firstly prepare for next moves between 5360-5420 and sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for next Short Term Trend confirmations.
Pre-Closing Outlook(20-08-2013)
As volatility remain high in Bear markets therefore trading positions have to be understood after every decisive intraday move because small traders stop losses trigger during such volatility.
Consolidation range of 5360-5400 was updated yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013) and last 5 hours trading within this range with higher levels selling but lower levels consolidations also seen today
As higher levels selling patterns today and all trends are down therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360 but volatile day today and technical positions reverses in such volatility also therefore view is cautious and finally next Short Term moves confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 5360-5400 because good consolidation was also seen between this range yesterday.
Consolidation range of 5360-5400 was updated yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013) and last 5 hours trading within this range with higher levels selling but lower levels consolidations also seen today
As higher levels selling patterns today and all trends are down therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360 but volatile day today and technical positions reverses in such volatility also therefore view is cautious and finally next Short Term moves confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 5360-5400 because good consolidation was also seen between this range yesterday.
Mid-session Outlook-3(20-08-2013)
High volatility is a nature of Bearish markets and it is being seen today. As all the Asian and European markets are 0.75% to 2.6% weak therefore sentiment turned depressed and selling formations also developed at higher levels today. Expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(5417) and finally down moves will be seen below 5360.
Mid-session Outlook-2(20-08-2013)
Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013
1- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
2- some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow
As Indian Rupee weakened more than 2% between yesterday closing and today opening of Indian markets therefore Nifty crashed more than 100 points within first 2 minutes today but more than 100 points recovery from lower levels and last more than 3 hours trading within above mentioned Consolidation range(5360-5400)
Some up moves possibility was told yesterday and it was seen also today through more than 100 points lower levels recovery and now Nifty is preparing for next moves between 5360-5400. View is finally Bearish and high volatility is a nature of Bearish markets therefore lower levels recovery seen today and more Short Term up moves can not be ruled out also because no selling signals seen yet.
1- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
2- some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow
As Indian Rupee weakened more than 2% between yesterday closing and today opening of Indian markets therefore Nifty crashed more than 100 points within first 2 minutes today but more than 100 points recovery from lower levels and last more than 3 hours trading within above mentioned Consolidation range(5360-5400)
Some up moves possibility was told yesterday and it was seen also today through more than 100 points lower levels recovery and now Nifty is preparing for next moves between 5360-5400. View is finally Bearish and high volatility is a nature of Bearish markets therefore lower levels recovery seen today and more Short Term up moves can not be ruled out also because no selling signals seen yet.
Follow up moves within 5360-5400 and finally sustaining it beyond will be next Short Term Trend confirmations and should be firstly watched now.
Mid-session Outlook(20-08-2013)
As lower levels consolidations between 6360-5400 yesterday therefore good recovery from lower levels and trading between this range despite most depressing sentiment today morning due to crashing of Indian Rupee in last 2 hours.
Although view is Bearish but Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore sustaining beyond 6360-5400 should be firstly watched for next very Short Term Trend confirmations.
Although view is Bearish but Short Term Indicators are oversold therefore sustaining beyond 6360-5400 should be firstly watched for next very Short Term Trend confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(20-08-2013)
Indian Rupee further weakened by more than 1% today therefore sentiment turned mosted depressed because Indian Rupee traded more than more than 1% weak after the closing of Indian markets yesterday also and resultant huge gap down opening again today. Following line was told in Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months:-
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447).
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
Pre-open Outlook(20-08-2013)
Although Indian markets showed consolidations patterns formations yesterday but Indian Rupee weakened more than 1% after the closing of Indian markets yesterday therefore its reaction will be seen in the beginning of today market through weak opening.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves near about yesterday trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465.
2-Correction continuation after sustaining below 5360 and its possibility is high because all trends are down as well as sentiment is weak today morning due to Indian Rupee trading at all time low and US market weak closing yesterday.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves near about yesterday trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465.
2-Correction continuation after sustaining below 5360 and its possibility is high because all trends are down as well as sentiment is weak today morning due to Indian Rupee trading at all time low and US market weak closing yesterday.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(20-08-2013
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Aug-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5465
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Gap down opening was not seen but almost 45 points down moves within first 5 seconds. As whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and consolidation seen at lower levels also therefor some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow after 281 points sharp down moves in last 2 sessions.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves between today trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465
2-Short Term down trend after sustaining below 5360
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation at lower levels between 5360-5400
3- Whole day actual trading between 5360-5465
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Gap down opening was not seen but almost 45 points down moves within first 5 seconds. As whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and consolidation seen at lower levels also therefor some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow after 281 points sharp down moves in last 2 sessions.
Expected that Nifty will firsly trade and prepare for next moves between today trading range(5360-5465),follow up moves and sustaining beyond this range will pave the way of next;-
1-Short Term up trend after sustaining above 5465
2-Short Term down trend after sustaining below 5360
Huge Bearish Pattern formation in last 11 months
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Aug 19 to Aug 23,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.
Waves Structure of 'ABC' Correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
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1- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
2- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013) and 'ABC' correction continuation.
3- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
4- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
5- Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 5486.85 on 07-08-2013
6- Pull Back Rally top formation at 5754.55 on 14-08-2013.
10 Pull Back Rally termination and bottom formation at 5496.05 on 16-08-2013.
11 Months huge most Bearish Head and Shoulders patterns formation from 14-09-2012 to 16-08-2013
Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Aug-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 11 Months huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation
2- Neckline at 5477.20
3- Long Term Trend turning down confirmations through Nifty sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5776)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 13 to Aug 16,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 13 and 14 Aug 2013.
2- 2 Days up moves reversed in 1 hour on 14 Aug 2013
3- Follow up selling after 1st hour huge fall
3- 3 Sessions actual trading between.
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although strong up moves on 13 and 14 Aug 2013 but in Bearish Rising Channel therefore we told:-
1- In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-08-2013):-
Nifty will not be able to cross next resistance range(5740-5765) and fresh down moves will begin after development of follow up selling in the coming sessions.
2-In Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-08-2013):-
1- Bearish Rising Channels therefore high possibility of today trading range breaking down
2-once sustaining below today lowest(5690) will mean termination of on going Pull Back Rally
As 2 sessions up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Nifty whole 2 sessions up moves become zero in first hour and Nifty formed 5578 at 10:11 AM on 16-08-2013. As was told in both above mentioned previous sessions same happened and down moves begun after development of follow up selling as well as Nifty reversed from 5754 and could not cross 5765.
Follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
All trends turned down after huge fall on 16-08-2013 and Indian markets are in Bear phase. Correction of whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45 was told many times in previous Weekly Analysis and it is being continuously seen. just click Weekly Outlook for:-
1- Retracement levels whole rally between 4531.15-6229.45
2- Detailed analysis of Waves structure.
Most Bearish huge Head and Shoulders patterns formation developed in last 11 Months and its neckline is at 5477.20 which is between next gap support(5447-5526). As all trends are down and such huge Bearish pattern neckline broken down also therefore high possibility of sustaining below gap support lowest(5447).
As we don't want to create panic through updating next expected levels after sustaining below 5447 therefore only giving next following support levels upto 4779:-
1- 5210-5270
2- 5075-5140
3- 4779-4880
It is confirm that Indian markets are in Bear phase and Economic Outlook is also gloomy in the next months as well as political uncertainty can not be ruled out after next General Elections therefore Indian markets will remain in the grip of Bears. Pull Back and Relief rallies will be seen after regular intervals after intraday or 1/2 day consolidations but until complete consolidation will not complete on Intraday,EOD and Weekly charts till then Long Term Trend will not reverse.
Bear Market Trading Strategy
Mouth water lower levels of good stocks nowadays but it should also be kept in mind that Stocks levels remain different in Bull and Bear markets and present levels are Bear markets rates and may be more down also after Bear markets deepening. "Buying in falling markets is like catching Falling Knief resultant one's hand full of one's own Blood" therefore just wait before any investment and get confirmation of bottom formation as well as consolidation completion on Daily charts. Firstly buying should be done for Short or Intermediate Term and should be converted into Long Term only after stock sustaining above Long Term decider 200 Day EMA otherwise must be squared up.
Bounce Back or Pull Back Rallies may be seen any day after lower levels intraday supports and 2/3 hours consolidations because Bear Markets remains highly volatile therefore both side(up and down) trading opportunities will be seen in good amount.
Analysis of "last 11 months huge Bearish Pattern" with Detailed Weekly Analysis of EOD/Intraday Charts will be updated during trading hours today
As follow up selling was also seen after 1st hour sharp fall on 16-08-2013 therefore intraday charts of last Friday are suggesting more down moves in the coming sessions.
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