Firstly sustaining beyond 200-Day SMA
& finally 23263.20 will confirm
length of on going correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Dec 23 to Dec 27,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.
11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at this level. Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 started from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.4 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023 and Wave-B begun from this level. Wave-B completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started from this levels which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level which completed .
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv)of Wave-3 started which completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024. Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this levels which completed at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024 and from this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 06.83 & %D(3)- 19.45.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 139.45 & EXP(9)- 350.12 & Divergence- -210.67
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is now completely ovedrsold but has not genetared any upward moves beginning signal. Let its both lines to move above oversold zone after upward intersection then Short Term upward moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore it will be understood that MACD indicator has shown Downward Trend formation signals and resultant on going downward moves continuation will be expected.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24149
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24341
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24388
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24687
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23834
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Finally Nifty had moved down sharply in all the 5 sessions of previous week after 8 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and facing resistance at this crucial level. Short and Intermediate Term Trends have turned down in last week 1100 points sharp fall and now Long Term Trend is also at stake because Nifty moved down 296 points sharply below its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 23834) as well as last Friday closing was 246 points below it also. As now it is confirm that Long Term Trend is at stake and firstly sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA should be watched in the coming week/weeks for its direction confirmations and resultant that side bigger moves beginning confirmations accordingly.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(20-Dec-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 23892-24065
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels in the last more than 3 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 23538-24065
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly upward moves after positive opening last Friday but selling developed which remained continued more than 3 hours therefore down moves started which remained continued till last half hour. As last more than 3 hours down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also therefore firstly upward moves are expected towards 23892 in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at stake.
2- Intermediate Term trend is down.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
On going Waves structure of Nifty which begun from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 through its impulsive Wave-1 beginning which is in on and now its corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts.
As Short Term indicator Stochastic is completely Over sold therefore Short Term Upward moves are expected in the beginning of next week which may be limited also because another Short Term indicator MACD is showing Downward Trend formation and finally on going downward moves continuation possibility also.
Nifty could not sustain above Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and fallen sharply as well as closed 246 points below Long Term Trend 200-Day SMA(today at 23834) last Friday therefore now Long Term Trend is at stake and firstly sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 23834) should be watched for its finally formation confirmations. Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 bottom is at 23263.20 and once slipping below it will mean deeper correction beginning confirmations hence if Nifty sustaions below 200-Day SMA then it should be firstly watched.
As lower levels consolidation patterns formations last Friday therefore firstly upward moves are expected towards following next resistances which should be watched one by one for next decisive moves beginning confirmations:-
1- 23892-24065
2- 24066-24149(Gap resistance)
3- 24204-24266
4- 24414-24479
5- 24568-24624
6- 24725-24790
Next supports below last Friday closing are as follows which should be watched one by one for the life and length of on going correction:-
1- 23298-23337
2- 23161-23206
3- 22961-23096
4- 22760-22871
5- 22291-22395
6- 21884-22191
7- 21502-21582
8- 21417-21500
As firstly sustaining beyond 200-Day SMA(today at 23834) & finally bottom of corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3(23263.20) will confirm life and length of on going correction therefore these 2 crucial levels should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next Trend formations and bigger moves beginning confirmations.
