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Post-Open Outlook(20-05-2010)
Little upmove was expected after yesterday last 1 hour consolidations signals and Heavy weight ONGC is up more than 8% on the back of petroleum rates hike news therefore trading range changed and Nifty is trading near 4960 immrdiately after opening. Good opening today after yesterday lower levels minor consolidations is positive signal but more consolidation requires for any sustained up move. If Nifty sustains above 4950 today then it will be strong consolidation signal and in that situation upmoves will be seen in coming sessions.
Pull Back Rally continuation require permission from 8224
Pull Back Rally continuation require permission from 8224
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 11 to May 15,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-May-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)('ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C' recent bottom formation at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015
10- 134 Points strong rally and first indication of corrective Wave-C completion on 08-05-2015.
Waves structure of on going Wave-5
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-May-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-C recent bottom formation at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015
10- 134 Points strong rally and first indication of corrective Wave-C completion on 08-05-2015.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-May-2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation Patterns between 8141-8178
2- Selling patterns between 8188-8204
3- Selling patterns between 8204-8224
4- Whole day actual trading between 8141-8224
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly 110 points strong up moves in first 10 minutes after 74 points gap up opening and after that whole day trading between 8141-8224 with lower levels consolidation but higher levels selling patterns were also seen in last 3 hours therefore firstly sustaining above day's highest(8224) is must for fresh rally continuation.
As today selling patterns formations are at much higher levels(more than 100 points) therefore today resistances are not be much stronger between 8188-8224 and will be broken out easily after minor consolidation.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 06 to May 08,2015):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 5 hours trading with selling patterns formation between 8083-8181 on 06-05-2015
2- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 07-05-2015
3- Mixed Patterns between 8141-8224 on 08-05-2015
4- 3 Sessions actual trading between 7997-8224
Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although whole day good consolidation between 7997-8122 on 07-05-2015 but 5 Hours selling was seen between 8083-8181 on 06-05-2015 therefore complete consolidation was required for sustaining above 8181. As both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling was seen between 8141-8224 on 08-05-2015 therefore some more consolidation is required for fresh decisive rally above 8181/8224.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend Has turned up after 227 points rally from lower levels in last 2 sessions.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend is sideways and Nifty is hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8188) for the last 6 sessions.
Wave-1 begun from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 completed after 18 months 4000 points rally at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction started. Recent bottom of on going corrective Wave-'C' at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015 and after that strong 227 points rally was seen in last 2 sessions which is an indication of Wave-'C' completion and confirmation will be after sustaining above 8181/8224. Once sustaining above 8224 will mean firstly retracement of Wave-'C' according to following retracement levels which started from 8844.40 and completed at 7997.15:-
1- 13.0%- 8,107(Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8,196(Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8,225(Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 8,320 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8,420 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8,520 (Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 8,595
8- 76.4%- 8,644
8- 78.6%- 8,662
10-88.6%- 8,747
Confirmation of Wave-'C' completion at 7997.15 will mean following 2 possibilities of next trend:-
1- Fresh rally above all time high(9119.20) after 'ABC'correction completion. This possibility can be considered because Wave-5 has almost completely corrected and sufficient(28%) correction of 4000 points rally has been seen.
2- If 7th May 2015 started rally terminates below the top of Wave-'C'(8844.40) then 5 Waves correction will be seen and its corrective Wave-5 will moves below the bottom of Wave-'C'(7997.15).
Next resistances of Wave-'C' are as follows:-
1- 8230-8365
2- 8431-8462
3- 8486-8502
5- 8522-8564
6- 8640-8468
7- 8690-8750
8- 8777-8784
9- 8802-8844
As above resistances therefore Nifty has to consolidate for any decisive up move and firstly sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8188) should be watched for the confirmation of next Trend towards:-
1- Above 8188 will mean rally towards the top of Wave-'C'(8844.40)
2- Below 8188 will mean extension of Wave-'C' towards fresh down moves below 7997/7961
Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back Rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week but rally continuation confirmation is must through sustaining above 8224.
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