Next resistance range will confirm more than 10% one sided decisive moves 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Averages & Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9324.00 on 17-04-2020
4- SMA(Simple Moving Averages)
A- 5-Day SMA is at 9058
B- 13-Day SMA is at 8719
C- 55-Day SMA is at 10474
D- 200-Day SMA is at 11311
5- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 69.03 & %D(3) is at 73.42

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Averages & Stochastic)

The rally which started from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 is very much on through moving above both short Term Averages(5 and 13) and 5-Day SMA has also moved above 13-Day SMA which is another positive signal but Stochastic has become over bought and showing negative divergence also therefore emergence of short Term Correction beginning signals,let clear selling patterns develop on intraday charts then its continuation will be seen.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-A(7511.1 to 12430.50):-

1- 13.0%- 8150 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8672 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8839 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 9390 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 9970 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 10551(Crucial) 
7- 70.7%- 10989
8- 76.4%- 11269
9- 78.6%- 11377
10-88.6%- 11869 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Fibonacci retracement levels)

As 27.0% Retracement has been completed and last Friday highest was little below 38.2%(9390) level at 9324 as well as Nifty closed at the top of on going Pull Back rally therefore firstly sustaining beyond 38.2%(9390) should be watched in next week because that will decide:-
1- Sustaining above 9390 will mean rally continuation towards and/or above 50.0% retracement level(9970)
2- Sustaining below 9390 will mean slipping towards and/or below the bottom(7511.10) of on going rally

NiftyLast 21 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Apr 17,2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 21 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 21 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 21 sessions
A- 9092-9173
B- 8913-8972
C- 8654-8750
D- 8361-8449
E- 8056-8107
F- 7512-7970
3- Mixed Patterns formation  
4- 21 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602 

Conclusions from 21 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 21 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 2 resistances and lower levels 6 supports therefore firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves(more than 10%) which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(17-Apr-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(17-Apr-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sideways up to 10 AM after more than 3% gap up opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Consolidation between 9092-9173(Immediate Supports)
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 9092-9324

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As following 3 reasons therefore more than 3% gap up opening on 17-04-2020:-

1- High expetations from RBI Governor Press Conference which was scheduled at 10:00 AM same day.
2- Dow Jones'S Fututes was trading more than 850 points up since morning on the news of more than 1300 patients recovery from Corona after taking a specific medicine.
3- All the Asian markets were trading strong since morning.

Although huge gap up opening and traded also with such good gains till 10:00 AM but started to slip immediately after RBI Governor Press Conference beginning. As all the down moves till 12;00 PM were in Bullish Falling Channels and lower levels consolidation also between 9092-9173 therefore up moves were seen in last 2 hours.

As last hours Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore some profit booking can not be ruled out because sentiment turned heated in last hours due to news of Package by Finanace Ministery on 18-04-2020 and all Global markets were trading strong at that time.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Waves structure) was updated in the weekly Outlook of Apr 07 to Apr 09,2020 and no material change in Waves structure since then therefore it is not being posted in this week.

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is sideways between 7512-9602 for the last 21 Sessions.
3- Short term trend is up.

Corrective Wave-A completed at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and after that impulsive Wave-B begun which is in continuation with recent top formation at 9324.00 on 17-04-2020 and no confirmation of its completion yet. 

Although last Friday closing was at the top of on going rally with new top(9324.00) formation of on going rally but due to following reasons therefore view will be cautiously Bullish:-

1- Economic package news on 18-04-2019 was in Business news Channels.
2- All European markets were trading more than 3.5% up at the time of Indian markets closing
3- Dow Jones Futures was trading more than 700 points up at the time of Indian markets closing
4- All the Asian markets closed 1.5% to 3% up

As 3.05% positive closing was on the back of above positive news flow on 17-04-2019 therefore firstly sustaining above last Friday highest(9324.00) should be watched in the beginning of next week because following resistances are lying above last Friday closing:-

1- 9254-9403
2- 9430-9584

Although Short Term indicators have turned over bought and showing negative divergence also but sufficient selling patterns have not developed on intraday charts yet therefore firstly next 1/2 sessions of next week should be watched because if fresh selling develops then Short Term Correction will be seen in next week

Above mentioned 1st resistance range(9254-9403) has become most crucial for next week because;-

1- 38.2% retracement level(9390) is lying within it.
2- Recent top of Wave-B(9324.00) and last Friday closing(9266.75) is also within it

As firstly follow up moves within and/or near about next resistance range(9254-9403) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm the life of on going rally with more than 10% one sided decisive moves also therefore should be watched in next week. 

Finally 2 trading ranges will confirm next big moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-04-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Apr-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with downward corrections 
2- Selling between 8997-9053 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8822-9053

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing was near the higher levels of the day but higher levels selling was seen between 8997-9053 therefore follow up selling is must for decisive down moves below today lowest because first 4 hours today up moves were with intraday corrections.

Last 5 sessions trading between 8654-9261 and most time trading within this range is between 8905-9128 therefore finally sustaining beyond these 2 trading ranges should be watched one by one in the coming sessions/weeks for next big moves beginning confirmations.

Sustaining beyond will confirm 8905-9128 next trend amid high volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-04-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Almost 3% up after strong gap up opening
2- Intraday correction
3- sharp fall after fast down moves in European markets and Dow Jones's Futures 
4- Whole day actual trading between 8875-9261

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Dow Jones's Futures was trading more than 150 points down and most Asian markets were flat to negative today morning but strong gap up opening of Indian markets and Nifty traded almost 3% up also in such depressed Global markets sentiments as well as remained more than 2% up despite more than 1% weaker opening of most European markets. In this manner it will be understood that Indian markets completely out performed all Global markets.

As Dow Jones's Futures moved down more than 300 points and all the Europen markets also moved down fast therefore sharp fall was seen in Indian markets after 01:55 PM and Nifty closed 0.76% down despite more than 2.5% fall in most European markets.

Following lines were told yesterday in "Levels will give first strong indication of next decisive moves":-

sustaining beyond 8905-9128 should also be watched because Coronavirus news led huge volatility may be seen any day and these levels will give first strong indication of next decisive moves. 

As Nifty closed within yesterday mentioned trading range(8905-9128) at 8925.30 today amid  Global markets led high volatility therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8905-9128 should be watched for next trend confirmations because technical positions reverses in today like high volatility and out performance on all Global markets.

Levels will give first strong indication of next decisive moves 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(15-04-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp down after flat opening
2- Consolidation between 8913-8972
3- Selling between 9016-9100
4- Last 2 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 8941-9031
5- Whole day actual trading between 8913-9112

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 10-04-2020 in "Levels will confirm next trend according to Coronavirus problem solution timings":-

Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next one sided decisive within and near about last Thursday trading range(8905-9128) and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched in the beginning of next week for confirmations.

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty traded within mentioned trading range(8905-9128) last Monday.

Although firstly sharp down after flat opening but lower levels consolidation was seen therefore some up moves were seen. As follow up selling at higher levels therefore slipped and last 2 hours trading was seen with Mixed Patterns formation. Both consolidation and selling therefore last Monday whole trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation only.

As last 2 sessions trading between 8905-9128 with both consolidation and selling therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and firstly will have tp prepare for one sided moves which will be done in the coming sessions within or near about 8905-9128. 

Following next resistances are lying above 9128;-

1- 9254-9403
2- 9430-9584

Until Nifty will not sustain above 9584 till then decisive up moves will not be seen and once sustaining below 8905 will mean more than 5% sharp fall.

Let market completely prepare for next decisive moves then will be updated according to intraday patterns formations and till then sustaining beyond 8905-9128 should also be watched because Coronavirus news led huge volatility may be seen any day and these levels will give first strong indication of next decisive moves.