Most crucial levels will confirm Long Term Trend and next one-sided big moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 13 to Mar 17,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formations at 17255.2 on 28-02-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new "Waves structure" begun from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 after "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at this level. Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 17255.2 on 28-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its Corrective Wave-(ii) beginning.
2- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with Falling Channel formation.
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 55.60 & %D(3)- 73.37.
5- In MACD- Its both lines are kissing in the negative zone
6- MACD(26,12)- -93.36 & EXP(9)- -99.43 & Divergence- 6.07
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation within Falling Channel therefore valid break out of this channel should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next Trend confirmations. Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore showing signals of more down moves in next week.
2- In MACD its both lines are kissing therefore this indicator is not suggesting any side Short term moves but its both lines are in the negative zone therefore showing downward trend formation signals.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 17612
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 17675
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 17844
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 18030
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17434
2- Nifty closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA at 17412.90 on 10-02-2023
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Although Nifty closed below all the Short to Long Term Averages last Friday but closed little below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for Long Term Trend confirmations because that will decide next one sided big moves.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(10-Mar-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 265 Points down in first half hour after 122 points huge gap down opening.
2- 109 Points recovery from lower levels in next 2 hours.
3- More than 5 hours sideways trading between 17367-17434
4- Whole day actual trading between 17325-17451
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
As all the Global markets were in crashing mode last Friday therefore Nifty also moved down 265 Points in first half hour after 122 points huge gap down opening. Although Nifty recovered 109 points from lower levels in the next 2 hours but sideways trading was also seen between 17367-17434 in the last more than 5 hours and one-sided intraday patterns could not develop within this range.
Whole day last Friday trading was under Bearish Global cues led depressed sentiments and technical positions reverses also during such public psychology therefore firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this sideways trading range(17367-17434) in the beginning of next week. As finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next decisive moves beginning therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week for confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down .
3- Long Term Trend is at stake and finally it will be decided through sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA which is today at 17434.
As corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts therefore its continuation is expected because:-
1- Stochastic indicator is showing down moves signals in short term Short Term.
2- Both lines of MACD indicator is in negative zone therefore indicating downward trend formation.
3- Intraday charts of last Friday have not shown clear consolidation patterns formation.
As US markets and most Global markets closed more than 1% down last Friday and if such Bearish sentiment prevails next Monday also then Indian markets will also open weak next Moday and firstly sustaining beyond lowest of last Friday sideways trading range(17367-17434) should be watched for next decisive down moves beginning confirmations. Next supports below 17367 are as follows:-
1- 17256-17304
2- 17106-17219
3- 16941-17029
4- 16760-16855
Next resistances above last Friday sideways trading range highest(17434) are as follows:-
1- 17574-17772
2- 17775-17799
3- 17866-17891
4- 17902-17924
5- 17949-18022
6- 18069-18132
7- 18155-18192
8- 18216-18240
9- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
Sideways trading range(17367-17434) of last Friday has become most crucial because top of this range is exactly at Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(17434) therefore finally sustaining beyond these most crucial levels will confirm Long Term Trend and next one-sided big moves also hence it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for confirmations.
