Strong rally beginning expectation 

towards & above life time highest 

after 2 Crucial Levels break out 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 13 to Feb 17,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

2- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.

3- 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023 

4- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17856.50

5- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972 which is Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range. 

6- Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023.

7- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone.

8- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 88.05 & %D(3)- 81.18.

9- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in the negative zone

10- MACD(26,12)- -122.47 & EXP(9)- -138.11 & Divergence- 15.64

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Waves structure of Nifty was potsed in previous week weekly Outlook and since then no material change in it therefore not being updated in this week weekly Outlook.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 was completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.

Although 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but after this next 2 Weekly closing was within this range therefore confirmation of this range valid break down is still required. As last 11 Sessions trading was between 17354-17972 which is within Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range also and Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023 therefore firstly sustaining beyond last 11 Sessions trading range should be watched in the coming week for first strong signal of corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation/completion.

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone therefore some more up moves can not be ruled out. Although its both lines are in Over bought zone but let its downward intersection happen then Short Term correction will be considered.

2- In MACD its both lines are kissing in negative zone therefore showing indecisiveness signals. Let its one sided clear cross over happen then that sided Short Term Trend will be considered accordingly.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023. 

4- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 which started from 16747.7 and completed at 18887.6.

5- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) are as follows:-

13.0%- 18609

23.6%- 18382

27.0%- 18309

38.2%- 18070(Crucial)

50.0%- 17817(Crucial)

61.8%- 17565(Crucial)

70.7%- 17374

76.4%- 17252

78.6%- 17205

88.6%- 16991

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completed at 16747.7 and impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which completed at 18887.6. Now corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 which will correct impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) according to above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels.

As Nifty has corrected 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and also has retraced upto 70.7% Level(17374) after lowest formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 as well as strong Pull Back Rally developed after this lower levels formation therefore signals of Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion have emerged. Let confirmation come then its completion will be considered.

Nifty-Last 11 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Feb 10,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts

1- Lower levels strong base formation from Jan 27 to Feb 03,2023 between 17354-17688 

2- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications

3- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between  17354-17972 

Conclusions from 11 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Last 11 Sessions actual trading between  17354-17972 in which firstly strong base was formed at lower levels between 17354-17688 and after that up moves started on 03-02-2023. As last 3 sessions most time trading was below last 11 sessions highest without slipping below 17688 therefore signals of sustaining at higher levels of 11 sessions range have been seen. As some consolidation at lower levels in previous 3 sessions have also been seen therefore up moves beginning expectations above last 11 sessions highest(17972) have emerged. 

Fresh consolidation without sustaining below 17801 will be first strong signal of strong rally beginning and finally sustaining above last 11 sessions highest(17972) will confirm it which should be firstly watched in next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(10-Feb-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day sideways trading with consolidation patterns indications between 17801-17876

2- Whole day actual trading between 17801-17876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after weaker opening and Nifty traded 92 points down also last Friday but whole day sideways trading was seen with consolidation patterns indications therefore view will not be Bearish immediately. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about last Friday trading range(17801-17876) as well as prepare for next decisive moves beginning therefore finally sustaining beyond last Friday trading range should be watched in the beginning of coming week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 17354-17902.

2- Intermediate Term is down.

3- Long Term Trend is up.

Although corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on Union-Budget day(01-02-2023) and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but following signals of its completion have emerged which should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks:-

1- Nifty has retraced 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and sustaining above it for the last 6 sessions with recent lowest formation above it at 17585 on 03-02-2023. 

2- Last 11 Sessions trading between 17354-17972 with lower levels strong base formation between 17354-17688.

3- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications.

4- Nifty has not slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17313) during on going correction.

Next supports and resistances beyond last Friday closing(17856) are as follows:-

Supports:-

1- 17816-17841

2- 17719-17783

3- 17585-17718

4- 17513-17552

5- 17438-17492

6- 17226-17374

Resistances:-

1- 17912-17972

2- 18109-18132

3- 18155-18192

4- 18216-18240

5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)

As more than 500 points recovery from lower levels from Union-Budget lowest and lower levels good intraday  consolidation patterns formations were seen also in the last 11 sessions therefore strong rally beginning possibility has emerged after on going Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 correction completion. Let nifty to sustain above following next 2 Crucial levels then strong rally will be seen towards and above life time highest and it is expected also:-  

1- Last 11 sessions highest(17972)

2- Previous 24 sessions trading range highest(18265)

Firstly watch 17780-17916 after weaker Global cues amid fresh rally beginning possibility above 17916

Pre-open Outlook(10-02-2023)

As Dow Jones closed 249 points down after slipping 550 points from intraday highest yesterday therefore sentiment turned weaker today morning and resultant most Asian markets are trading in Red hence Indian markets will also open in negative zone today.

Lower levels good intraday consolidation was seen yesterday therefore until Nifty will not slip below yesterday lowest(17780) till then decisive down moves will not be seen and follow up consolidation today will mean finally strong rally above yesterday highest(17916)

Expected that Nifty will trade most time today within yesterday trading range(17780-17916) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next decisive moves beginning therefore finally it should be watched in the coming sessions amid fresh rally beginning possibility above yesterday highest(17916).

Finally decisive up moves above 

today highest & 18000 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(10-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Sharp up moves

3- Consolidation between 17823-17884

4- Sharp up moves

5- Sideways trading in last hour with consolidation patterns indications between 17878-17916

6- Whole day actual trading between 17780-17916

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

Although firstly 103 Points down moves from intraday higher levels in first 30 minutes after positive opening but were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves were seen after that. As consolidation between 17823-17884 in Mid-session also therefore again sharp moves were seen after 01:30 PM. 

Sideways trading with consolidation patterns indications between 17878-17916 in last hour but Very Short Term indications have turned Overbought also after more than 400 points recovery from lower levels in last 6 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about this range(17878-17916)  tomorrow but expected that finally decisive up moves will be seen above today highest and 18000 in the coming sessions/week.

 As out of station therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(09-02-2023) is not being updated.

 Valid break out of today trading range 

will confirm next decisive beginning 

after RBI Credit Policy

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(08-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 79 Points sharp fall after positive opening

2- Selling between 17730-17785

3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

4- Sharp up

5- Volatility in last hour between 17709-17778

6- Whole day actual trading between 17653-17811

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

Although positive opening but firstly 79 points sharp fall and after that selling between 17730-17785 therefore down moves remained continued in first 4 hours and Nifty traded 111 points down also. As lower levels consolidation was also seen through down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves developed from lower levels.

As only volatility in last hour after higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore it will be understood that one sided technical positions could not be formed today. it is clear that Nifty will have to prepare for next decisive moves beginning and that will be done within and near about today trading range therefore firstly valid break out today trading range(17653-17811) should be watched tomorrow for next decisive beginning confirmations after RBI Credit Policy announcements at 10:00 AM tomorrow.

Sustaining above 17783 will confirm

 sharp up moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(07-02-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 137 Points sharp fall in first 20 minutes after weaker opening.

2- Selling between 17769-17802

3- Sharp fall

4- Consolidation Patterns indications in last 5 hours between 17699-17783

5- Whole day actual trading between 17699-17823

Conclusions from intra day

chart analysis 

As higher levels selling last friday therefore firstly 137 Points sharp fall was seen in first 20 minutes after weaker opening and fresh selling developed after intraday recovery from lower levels hence sharp fall was seen again.  

Although whole day negative zone trading and today closing was 89.45 down also but consolidation Patterns indications were seen in the last 5 hours between 17699-17783. If fresh consolidation develops tomorrow then sharp up moves will be seen above today highest. Finally sustaining above 17783 should be watched in the coming sessions for such sharp up moves beginning confirmations.