Just click on above heading for detailed news
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Sensex, Nifty down 2.8 per cent during the week on concerns over inflation
Just click on above heading for detailed news
Economic Survey 2011: Agri needs to grow at 8.5% in 2011-12
Just click on above heading for detailed news
Trading Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 5456
R2 5397
R1 5350
Avg 5291
S1 5244
S2 5185
S3 5138
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 5477
R2 5412
R1 5362
Avg 5297
S1 5247
S2 5182
S3 5132
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 10806
R2 10658
R1 10556
Avg 10408
S1 10306
S2 10158
S3 10056
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 28-02-2011
H5 5403 Trgt 1
H4 5376 Long breakout
H3 5344 Go Short
H2 5334
H1 5323
L1 5302
L2 5291
L3 5281 Long
L4 5249 Short Breakout
L5 5222 Trgt 1
L6 5196 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy(28 Feb to 04 Mar 2011)
H5 5533 Trgt 1
H4 5465 Long breakout
H3 5384 Go Short
H2 5357
H1 5330
L1 5277
L2 5250
L3 5223 Long
L4 5142 Short Breakout
L5 5074 Trgt 1
L6 5007 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot- Weekly Levels (28 Feb to 04 Mar 2011)
R2 5647
R1 5475
Avg 5354
S1 5182
S2 5061
S3 4889
Pre-closing outlook(25-02-2011)
"Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets"
Nothing negative in Railway Budget. All global markets and US futures are sufficiently positive today but Indian markets moved more than 2% down from day's high and then again Nifty moved up 80 points within 15 minutes. It is Pre-Budget voltality and immediate resistance range is 5290-5330. Sharp surge seen in last half hour and if Nifty moves and sustainins above 5330 today or on Monday then it will first indication of up move. Nifty sustaining below 5290 will mean fast moves toward 5177.
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-COVERING
NIFTY MAR F & O(BOUGHT ON 24-02-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5322(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY MAR F & O(BOUGHT ON 24-02-2011)-PLEASE DO NOT COVER AT TARGET AND WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE
Quiet Marrket Waiting for Budget 2011-12
Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-02-2011)
All trends are down and all global markets crashed after Libyan unrest. Series of public movements erupted in Arabian countries and posed world wide economic challenges because non stopping phase of crude rates hike started and that will stop after cooling down the fire of all these movements Middle-East countries. In fact confidence has been shaked and it will take long time to stabilise again.
Indian markets sharp down yesterday therefore its correction in the form of very small pull back rally may be seen in expectation of good Budget and Nifty may trade within yesterday range(5242-5423) upto Budget declaration. yesterday range will break out according to budget proposals. Resistance ranges within yesterday range are as follows:-
1- 5295-5315(Minor resistance and crossing possible)
2- 5350-5375(Testing possible in expectation of good budget)
Resistance ranges above yesterday range:-
1- 5460-5515(Good selling within and until Nifty will not sustain above 5515 till then any rally can not be imagined despite whatsoever Budget-2011-2012)
2- 5530-5600(Crossing will mean worst is over)
Railway Budget today but Indian markets will wait for Budget 2011-12 and markets moves may be affected by Libyan problem,global market moves and crude price. Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets and Bulls have to prepare and take technical positions. As water Fall(Bullish) pattern yesterday therefore resistance ranges within yesterday range will be watched first and today whole day intraday patterns will give first indication of post budget Indian markets.
Fresh cracking not expected today and opening to closing trading will be within yesterday range(5242-5423) will be seen.
Trading Levels for 25-02-2011
Nifty Spot- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 5557.00
R2 5490.00
R1 5376.00
PIVOT 5309.00
S1 5195.00
S2 5128.00
S3 5014.00
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 5574.00
R2 5507.00
R1 5393.00
PIVOT 5326.00
S1 5212.00
S2 5145.00
S3 5031.00
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 10932.00
R2 10790.00
R1 10500.00
PIVOT 10358.00
S1 10068.00
S2 9926.00
S3 9636.00
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 25-02-2011
H5 5419 Trgt 1
H4 5378 Long breakout
H3 5328 Go Short
H2 5312
H1 5295
L1 5262
L2 5245
L3 5229 Long
L4 5179 Short Breakout
L5 5138 Trgt 1
L6 5097 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 25-02-2011
H6 10641 Trgt 2
H5 10544 Trgt 1
H4 10447 Long breakout
H3 10328 Go Short
H2 10289
H1 10249
L1 10170
L2 10130
L3 10091 Long
L4 9972 Short Breakout
L5 9875 Trgt 1
L6 9778 Trgt 2
Post-closing report(24-02-2011)
Although whatsoever happened in indian stock markets in previous days all that I projected well in advance but I mention in that situation when there is certain crucial.
Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-
slipping possibility is also high therefore supports will be watched:-
1- 5410-5415(minor support,its breaking down and moves below 5400 expected)
2- 5310-5340(Gap on 14-02-2011)
Above mentioned supports are not strong and will be blown over after any negative mood after Budget and slipping below 5310 will mean testing possibility of 5177.
I predicted only for down moves today and also told for moves below above supports and same happened,no support saved and Indian markets crashed today.
-Sensex closed 545.92 points down today.
-Nifty closed 174.85 points down today.
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(MAR FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5234-TGT-5304-CMP-5275
NIFTY(MAR CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5200,5300-NIFTY(MAR FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5234-TGT-5304 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5275
(NO COVERING TODAY.COVERING WILL BE DONE TOMORROW)
NIFTY(MAR CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5200,5300-NIFTY(MAR FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5234-TGT-5304 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5275
(NO COVERING TODAY.COVERING WILL BE DONE TOMORROW)
Mid-session outlook-2(24-02-2011)
Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-
slipping possibility is also high therefore supports will be watched:-
1- 5410-5415(minor support,its breaking down and moves below 5400 expected)
2- 5310-5340(Gap on 14-02-2011)
Above mentioned supports are not strong and will be blown over after any negative mood after Budget and slipping below 5310 will mean testing possibility of 5177.
Today low at this moment is 5307.40. No bottom fishing and any buying should be done after complete complete consolidation confirmation. Testing possibility of 5177 is high and Nifty may dip below it also.
Mid-session outlook(24-02-2011)
Only weak market was told many times in Pre-open outlook today and same is being seen during trading hours immediately after opening today. Rally started on 11-02-2011 is finished after Libyan internal problems and testing possibility of 5177 is high now. Intraday voltality may be seen but Indian markets will remain weak today and in the coming sessions.
Libyan Turmoil fused Indian Market Rally
Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-02-2011)
The turmoil in Libya heaped further pressure on stocks around the world yesterday as investors worry that the global economic recovery may be derailed by the sharp rise in oil prices and swelling inflation. Fear of spreading Libyan revolt in other neighbouring countries is so high that all the global markets has started to melt and Indian markets are also not saved and seems that 11th Feb 2011 begun rally has been fused and lower levels expected in Indian markets also after Libyan unrest broken out. As down move fear was expected therefore following lines were told immediately after opening in Post-open outlook yesterday despite positive trading Indian markets:-
"immediate up move confirmation range is 5490-5515 and if Nifty sustains above 5515 then it will be confirmation of Indian markets up moves"
Intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing selling within 5460-5515 and until Nifty will not sustain above 5515 till then any rally can not be imagined despite whatsoever Budget-2011-2012
Intraday chart showing last 2 Days Selling within 5460-5515:-
Clear selling in last 2 sessions and sentiment is also completely depressed and slipping possibility is also high therefore supports will be watched:-
1- 5410-5415(minor support,its breaking down and moves below 5400 expected)
2- 5310-5340(Gap on 14-02-2011)
Above mentioned supports are not strong and will be blown over after any negative mood after Budget and slipping below 5310 will mean testing possibility of 5177.
Opening to closing within 5385-5460 expected after flat to Weak opening today.
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 24-02-2011
H6 5510 Trgt 2
H5 5493 Trgt 1
H4 5476 Long breakout
H3 5455 Go Short
H2 5448
H1 5441
L1 5428
L2 5421
L3 5414 Long
L4 5393 Short Breakout
L5 5376 Trgt 1
L6 5359 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 24-02-2011
Nifty Spot- Levels for 24-02-2011
R3 5547
R2 5521
R1 5479
Avg 5453
S1 5411
S2 5385
S3 5343
Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 24-02-2011
R3 5557
R2 5529
R1 5482
Avg 5454
S1 5407
S2 5379
S3 5332
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 24-02-2011
R3 5567
R2 5538
R1 5490
Avg 5461
S1 5413
S2 5384
S3 5336
Bank Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 24-02-2011
R3 11051
R2 10964
R1 10814
Avg 10727
S1 10577
S2 10490
S3 10340
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 24-02-2011
H6 5519 Trgt 2
H5 5501 Trgt 1
H4 5484 Long breakout
H3 5463 Go Short
H2 5456
H1 5449
L1 5434
L2 5427
L3 5420 Long
L4 5399 Short Breakout
L5 5382 Trgt 1
L6 5364 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 24-02-2011
H6 10902 Trgt 2
H5 10848 Trgt 1
H4 10795 Long breakout
H3 10730 Go Short
H2 10708
H1 10686
L1 10643
L2 10621
L3 10599 Long
L4 10534 Short Breakout
L5 10481 Trgt 1
L6 10427 Trgt 2
Post-open outlook(23-02-2011)
Libya Internal Problems and its impact on Indian stock markets
Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-02-2011)
Last 6 days trading range is 5410-5600 and Indian markets are discounting Union Budget,Global markets crash and Libya internal problem within this range. Rally started from 5178 on 11-02-2011 but after eruption of Libya internal problems uncertainities increased in Middle East countries because there has already been anti govt. agitations in Yemen and Algeria and such revolts possibilities can not be ruled out in other neighbouring countries also after successful change of power in Tunisia and Egypt. As Petroleum supply may be interrupted due to all these developments therefore its rates hike and adverse impact on global economy is worrying factor and global markets reacting it with sharp declines.
Indian markets out performed global markets yesterday and were less than 1% down while other Asian markets closed with 1% to 2.6% loss and Dow's Futures was trading 133 points down. Market does not like uncertainities and rally begins after its end. This fact should always be kept in mind that rally started in Indian markets after the end of Iraq war on 28-04-2003. Crude is at 30 months high,it will certainly hamper global sentiment and markets therefore delay of rally is possible but denying signals are not seen yet.
Last 6 sessions trading range is 5410-5600 and this range forceful break out as well as sustaining beyond will tell Indian markets final reaction on Middle-East problems and Union Budget. Indian markets are preparing within mentioned range and last 3 sessions technical positions are as follows:-
1- Rally started on 11-02-2011 corrected sharply from 5600 on 18-02-2011 and candle was Engulfing Bearish candle.
2- Correction completion strong indication after base fornation within 5415-5445 on 21-02-2011.
3- Trading within 5440-5515 with Bearish Harami candle on 22-02-2011.
Last 3 Days intraday chart:-
It is clear from above intraday charts that there is clear supports at lower levels and resistances at higher levels and Indian markets will prepare for break out of last 3 days range. Expected first trading range of today is 5430-5480 and its forceful break out and sustaining beyond will give next move first strong indication. As sentiment is turning most depressing therefore moves below 5430 and 5400 may be seen and if Nifty sustains below 5400 then sharp declines will be seen. Until Nifty is sustaining above 5400 till then bullish hopes will remain alive and bullish market confirmation point is sustaining above 5558.
Market will react to global sentiments,markets and US futures also in the same manner as happened yesterday therefore today closing can not be guaranteed but expected that Nifty will trade most of the time between 5430-5480 and either close within this range or above it.
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 23-02-2011
H5 5541 Trgt 1
H4 5520 Long breakout
H3 5495 Go Short
H2 5486
H1 5478
L1 5461
L2 5453
L3 5444 Long
L4 5419 Short Breakout
L5 5398 Trgt 1
L6 5377 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 23-02-2011
Nifty Spot- Levels for 23-02-2011
R3 5595
R2 5557
R1 5513
AVG 5475
S1 5431
S2 5393
S3 5349
Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 23-02-2011
R3 5609
R2 5564
R1 5517
AVG 5472
S1 5425
S2 5380
S3 5333
Bank Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 23-02-2011
R3 11877
R2 11438
R1 11639
AVG 11200
S1 11401
S2 10962
S3 11163
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 23-02-2011
H6 12101 Trgt 2
H5 12036 Trgt 1
H4 11970 Long breakout
H3 11905 Go Short
H2 11883
H1 11861
L1 11818
L2 11796
L3 11774 Long
L4 11709 Short Breakout
L5 11643 Trgt 1
L6 11578 Trgt 2
Pre-closing outlook(22-02-2011)
Nifty moved below 5450 but did not sustained below it and recovered fast therefore bullish hopes are still alive despite crashing global markets.
Mid-session outlook-2(22-02-2011)
Dow's Futures trading 133 points down and Asian markets closed with 1% to 2.6% loss. European markets also trading from .63% to 1.5% down after yesterday sharp fall. Although Indian markets outperforming at this moment with less than 1.5% down trading but sentiment is completely depressed due to global markets crashing like situation.
Today candle will be bearish Harami after Engulfing Bearish candle last Friday. Today trading range 5450-5515 and sustaining below it will mean neutralising the impact of yesterday base formation and moves below 5400 will be seen.
Mid-session outlook(22-02-2011)
Market spiked before the announcement of JPC formation and slipped after its announcement. Market is reacting many sentiments:-
1- Libya internal problems
2- Global markets crash
3- Union Budget
4- Devivative Expiry
Technical positions are as follows:-
1- Rally started on 11-02-2011 corrected on 18-02-2011.
2- Correction completion strong indication on 21-02-2011 after base fornation within 5415-5445.
3- Higher bottom formation today but slipped from higher levels also.
Although slipped from higher levels but technically bullish formations also today therefore rally hopes are still alive despite last Friday sharp correction and Libya internal problems.
Trend confirmation range of today is 5470-5515 and its break out should be watched.
Global crash but Indian markets will react Budget Expectations
Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-02-2011)
Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday. As relevant therefore being repeated today:-
1- "Market is quiet within 5433-5468 since opening today and forceful break out of this range will give first indication of those moves which will laid the foundation of post Budget moves"
2-"Just wait for sustaining beyond of mentioned range(5433-5468) for next and possibly post budget moves confirmations"
Nifty moved below 5433 without force and could not sustained below therefore 5468 broken out with force and sharp surge seen yesterday. It is confirmation of bottom formation between 5415-5445 after last Friday correction. Next up move(rally) confirmation point is forceful break out or sustaining above 5558 because after this:-
1- Intermediate term trend will be up.
2- Inverse Head and Shoulders Neck Line will be broken out.
Last 2 sessions intraday chart showing market preparation:-
Asian markets are crashing after sharp declines in European markets and US futures(Dow 85 points down) therefore Indian markets will open weak and will trade within 5460-5510. As base formation yesterday within(5415-5445) therefore complete selling requires to break it down and not expected that Nifty will dip below it easily. Indian markets are eyeing on Budget-2011 and will prepare according to post Budget expectations only. Intraday trading will be effected from global sentiments today but real moves will be seen after budget according to preparation today and within this week.
JPC formation announcement expected during trading hours today and immediate market reaction will be watched. Confirm consolidation yesterday and its continuation amid depressed global sentiment will mean confirm crossing of 5558 in the coming sessions and it is expected also.
Weak opening,firstly trading and post budget preparation within 5460-5510 and finally flat closing expected today.
Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday. As relevant therefore being repeated today:-
1- "Market is quiet within 5433-5468 since opening today and forceful break out of this range will give first indication of those moves which will laid the foundation of post Budget moves"
2-"Just wait for sustaining beyond of mentioned range(5433-5468) for next and possibly post budget moves confirmations"
Nifty moved below 5433 without force and could not sustained below therefore 5468 broken out with force and sharp surge seen yesterday. It is confirmation of bottom formation between 5415-5445 after last Friday correction. Next up move(rally) confirmation point is forceful break out or sustaining above 5558 because after this:-
1- Intermediate term trend will be up.
2- Inverse Head and Shoulders Neck Line will be broken out.
Last 2 sessions intraday chart showing market preparation:-
Asian markets are crashing after sharp declines in European markets and US futures(Dow 85 points down) therefore Indian markets will open weak and will trade within 5460-5510. As base formation yesterday within(5415-5445) therefore complete selling requires to break it down and not expected that Nifty will dip below it easily. Indian markets are eyeing on Budget-2011 and will prepare according to post Budget expectations only. Intraday trading will be effected from global sentiments today but real moves will be seen after budget according to preparation today and within this week.
JPC formation announcement expected during trading hours today and immediate market reaction will be watched. Confirm consolidation yesterday and its continuation amid depressed global sentiment will mean confirm crossing of 5558 in the coming sessions and it is expected also.
Weak opening,firstly trading and post budget preparation within 5460-5510 and finally flat closing expected today.
Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 22-02-2011
H6 5658 Trgt 2
H5 5628 Trgt 1
H4 5598 Long breakout
H3 5563 Go Short
H2 5551
H1 5539
L1 5516
L2 5504
L3 5492 Long
L4 5457 Short Breakout
L5 5427 Trgt 1
L6 5397 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 22-02-2011
H6 11393 Trgt 2
H5 11318 Trgt 1
H4 11243 Long breakout
H3 11156 Go Short
H2 11127
H1 11098
L1 11041
L2 11012
L3 10983 Long
L4 10896 Short Breakout
L5 10821 Trgt 1
L6 10746 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 22-02-2011
Nifty Spot- Levels for 22-02-2011
R3 5671
R2 5598
R1 5558
AVG 5485
S1 5445
S2 5372
S3 5332
Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 22-02-2011
R3 5702
R2 5620
R1 5574
AVG 5492
S1 5446
S2 5364
S3 5318
Bank Nifty(Feb Futures)- Levels for 22-02-2011
R3 11499
R2 11299
R1 11184
AVG 10984
S1 10869
S2 10669
S3 10554
Pre-closing outlook(21-02-2011)
Mentioned range(5433-5468) broken out by force after good base formation between 5415-5445. Now next crucial level is 5558 and expected that Nifty will move above it as well as will give strong up moves confirmations.
Mid-session outlook(21-02-2011)
Market did not showed enthuciasm on resolving of JPC issue and Presidential address and trading with small losses. Market is quiet within 5433-5468 since opening today and forceful break out of this range will give first indication of those moves which will laid the foundation of post Budget moves.
Market has to prepare for any side moves and let this process complete. Just wait for sustaining beyond of mentioned range(5433-5468) for next and possibly post budget moves confirmations.
Rally confirmation First Point- 5558
Weekly Analysis- 21-02-2011 to 25-02-2011
Following conclusive lines was told in Weekly Analysis- 14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011 and that proved 100% true:-
"Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due and that will be seen in the coming week"
Following events will be closely watched by Indian markets and its results will decide Indian stock markets next immediate moves:-
21 Feb - Budget Session of Parliament begins
21/22 feb- Govt decision on JPC
24 Feb - Feb derivative expiry
25 Feb - Railway Budget-2011-2012
28 Feb - General Budget-2011-2012
Wave-5 started on 11-02-2011 from 5177 and its first 6 sessions moves are as follows:-
1- Firstly 422 points rally completed in first 6 sessions.
2- As very short term indicators were overbought therefore
3- 38,2% correction(almost) of last 5 sessions rally seen in last 6 session(last Friday).
Initial 5 sessions rally has been corrected upto 38,2% level last Friday and confirmation required that correction has been completed or not. Next immediete retracement levels are as follows and it has to be decided that correction has been completed at 5442 last Friday or may correct upto following levels:-
38.2%- 5437
50.0%- 5388
61.8%- 5338
2 following bullish formations developed in last 5 sessions:-
1- Falling Channel break out
2- Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation and Neck Line is at 5558
1-Falling Channel Chart:-
If Nifty does not dip below upper line of Falling Channel and cross Neck Line(5558) of Inverse Head and Shoulders then that will be strong rally expectation point and first confirmation level will be sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5617). Next resistances are as follows:-
1- 5640-5780(Strong resistance)
2- 5800-5860(Strong rally above 5860)
3- 6150-6180
4- 6240-6320
Market will face strong resistance between 5640-5860 and crossing 5860 will mean worst is over and fast strong rally eruption.
Conclusions
Short term trend is up,long term trend is down. Intermediate term trend is sideways and struggling for direction. Decisive confirmation of intermediate term trend will show clear trend to Indian markets because intermediate term trend will be up at 5556 and Inverse Head and Shoulders Neck Line is at 5558. Nifty sustaining above 5558 will mean strong up move because:-
1- Intermediate trend will be up
2- Trend reversal Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern will get confirmation from its neck line break out.
Bottoming out confirmation point of last Friday started correction is required first and sustaining beyond last 4 sessions most time trading range(5460-5500) will give next immediate moves confirmations.
3-First trend deciding Range Chart:-
As per my view Nifty will trade first within last Friday range and will consolidate as well as prepare for post Budget up moves. Sustaining above following levels will be watched one by one for next up moves confirmations:-
1- 5500
2- 5556/5558
3- 200-Day EMA(today at 5617)
4- 5780
5- 5860
5558 should be watched for first strong upmove confirmation point. As per my view Nifty will sustain above 5558 after some more consolidations in next couple of sessions and then rally will be seen.
Coming 6 sessions are full of events and will be highly volatile also therefore intraday charts formations and their micro analysis will only be able to give first confirmation of Post Budget Indian stock markets. Cautious trading positions must be taken after minute analysis this week intraday charts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)