Rally above 12103 and towards 13870.95 after Budget-2019

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 01 to Jul 05,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Corrective  Wave 2 beginning after Wave 1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016
3- Wave 1 gained 2142.90 points
4- Impulsive Wave 3 beginning after Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016
5- Corrective  Wave 4 beginning after Wave 3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 
6- Wave 3 gained 3866.40 points
7- Impulsive Wave 5 beginning after Corrective Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018
8- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with new life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019
9- Last 29 Sessions sideways trading between 11592-12103

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Modi ji's Victory gap)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 165 Points "Modi ji's Victory gap" supports formations between 11426-11591 on 20-05-2019 after Exit Polls results on 19-05-2019
2- Last 29 Sessions sideways trading between 11592-12103

Nifty-Previous 29 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 20 to Jun 28,2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 29 Sessions intraday charts

1- Buying,selling and mixed Patterns formation in last 29 sessions 
2- 29 Sessions actual trading between 11592-12103 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(01-07-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- More than 3 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 11800-11832 
3- Whole day actual trading between 11776-11871

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

1- Long Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 11592-12103 for the last 29 Sessions after 165 Points "Modi ji's Victory gap" formations between 11426-11591 on 20-05-2019 after Exit Polls results on 19-05-2019

Conclusions from 29 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As first Budget of Modi ji Government 2nd term on 5th July 2019 therefore Indian markets are preparing for post Budget decisive big moves for the last 29 sessions between 11592-12103 after Exit Polls results on 19-05-2019 which is above 165 Points "Modi ji's Victory gap"(11426-11591) that was formed on 20-05-2019.  

Last 29 sessions trading is with lower levels Buying and higher levels selling as well as one sideed technical positions not formations yet therefore Nifty has to trade and prepare for next post Budget decisive moves within 11592-12103 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although last Friday closing was near the lower levels of the day but clear selling patterns were not seen and more than 3 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation developed as well as consolidation took placed through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore Indian markets will be understood under consolidation process and emergence of rally continuation expectations but after follow up consolidations in the coming week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As Long and Intermediate Term Trends are still up therefore Indian markets will be understood Bullish and as per following calculations on going Rally will be expected towards 13870.95 in the coming weeks:-

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3 gained(3866.40 points).

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3866.40 points(11760.20-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 1851.60 points till 18-04-2018(11856.15-10004.55) 

As per Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can gain 3866.40 points from its beginning level(10004.55 )which means that on going Wave-5 has potential to move up to 13870.95(10004.55+3866.40) 

As Short Term Trend is sideways between 11592-12103 for the last 29 Sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next big moves confirmations.

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 11642-11727
2- 55-Day SMA(today at 11697) 
3- "Modi ji's Victory gap"(11426-11591)

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 11842-11934
2- 11968-12000
3- 12045-12097

It is confirm that Indian markets are well riped for Post Budget big moves in the last 29 sessions sideways trading between 11592-12103 and its forceful break out will be seen just before or after Buget day(05-07-2019). Although high volatility can not be ruled out in the next Pre-Budget week but expected that:-

1- Nifty will not sustain below 29 sessions lowest(11592) 
2- Nifty will not fill "Modi ji's Victory gap"(11426-11591),means that Nifty will not slip below 11427.

Indian Stock markets reacted surprisingly on following news:-

1- No rally after Modi ji strong victory on 23rd May 2019.
2- Sharp fall after Smt Nirmala Sitaraman announcement as Finance minister on 31-05-2019

Although above surprising negative moves but Indian markets are well matured and have full faith in Modi ji as well as rally will remain continued above 12103 and towards 13870.95 after Budget-2019 but next one more week may remain sideways between 11427-12103 for consolidation and fresh rally preparation.

Firstly watch levels amid fresh rally beginning possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-06-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels
2- Sharp falls in last hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 11822-11911

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

2nd Resistance range between 11842-11934 was updated 3 times in last 4 sessions outlooks and Nifty closed just below it at 11841.55 today.

Very Short Term correction possibility was told yesterday and it was seen through sharp falls higher levels today. 

As fresh selling at higher levels within above mentioned 2nd resistance range(11842-11934) therefore this resistance range has become stronger but consolidation was seen above 11758 last Wednesday therefore Nifty will have to firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 11758-11934 and that will be done in the coming sessions.

Expected that finally rally will remain continued after fresh consolidation but let it develop and Nifty to sustain above 11758 then fresh rally beginning time frame will be updated. 

Firstly sustaining beyond 11758-11934 should be watched amid fresh rally beginning possibility.

Finally rally after Very Short Term correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-06-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up after weaker opening
2- Consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels within more then 4 hours sideways trading range
3- Whole day actual trading between 11758-11871

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although weaker opening but immediately 38 points sharp up and after that consolidation through down moves in Bullish Falling Channels below yesterday mentioned 2nd resistance range(11842-11934) and within more then 4 hours sideways trading range.

As multiple resistances are above 11842 and Very Short Term indicators are bought therefore Very Short Term correction like today weaker opening can not be ruled out but expected that finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidation in the coming sessions. 

Expectations of sideways correction and consolidation for fresh rally

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-06-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with intraday corrections
2- Whole day actual trading between 11651-11814

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following 4 resistance ranges were updated on 22-06-2019 in "Firstly watch levels amid expectations of Rally continuation above life time highest":-

1- 11759-11809(Tested and closed within it today)
2- 11842-11934
3- 11968-12000
4- 12045-12097

As Global markets weakness today morning therefore firstly down moves after weaker opening but getting support at lower levels and after that whole day up moves with intraday corrections as well as today closing within above mentioned 1st resistance range. 

As multiple resistances are above today highest and Very Short Term indicators have also turned over bought after today rally therefore Very Short Term correction can not be ruled out and fresh consolidation is also required for sustaining above resistances. 

As Indian markets out performed all the Global markets also today therefore expected that Nifty will correct in sideways trading and consolidate for fresh rally in the coming sessions. 

Firstly Watch supports range after weaker Global cues led Red opening

Post-open Outlook(25-06-2019)

As most Asian markets are 0.50% to 1.20% weak today morning and Dow Jones Futures is also trading more than 50 points down therefore Indian markets slipped after Red opening today.

As supports of Nifty are lying between 1642-11727 and Nifty is trading within this range today therefore firstly valid break out of this range should be watched because today weakness is Global cues led and intraday consolidation was seen yesterday. 

Emergence of fresh rally beginning expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-06-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jun-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp fall after positive opening
2- Consolidation between 11688-12715 
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- Whole day actual trading between 11671-11754

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly sharp fall after positive opening and after that most time negative zone trading also but lower levels good consolidation patterns formations were seen today therefore it seems that Indian markets have statered consolidation process and emergence of fresh rally beginning expectations. 

As good selling at higher levels in the last 24 sessions also therefore follow up consolidation in the coming 2/3 sessions will mean decisive up moves towards and above last Saturday updated next resistances.