Levels will confirm next Trend after Union-Budget under the shadow of crashing Global markets

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 01 to Feb 05,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Wave-1(9889.05 on 30-04-2020)

3- Wave-2(8806.75 on 18-05-2020)

4- Wave-3(12025.50 on 15-10-2020)

5- Wave-4(11535.50 on 30-10-2020)

6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion with recent top formation at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021 and correction beginning

7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 13596.75 on 29-01-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Waves structure which started from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 completed at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021 and its correction started that is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 13596.75 on 29-01-2021.

  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14006

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14325 

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 13654

D- 200-Day SMA is today at11558 

2- Stochastic %K(5) is at 6.11 & %D(3) is at 8.14   

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Correction continuation with slipping below 55-Day SMA(13654) which is Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmation.  

As Short term Trend indicator has turned extremely over sold therefore signals of a Pull Back rally which will be seen also if Global markets will not be in crashing mode as were in previous week due to new variant of Coronavirus.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Fibonacci retracement levels of Whole Wave Structure(7511.10-14753.55)

1- 13.0%- 13811(Corrected)

2- 23.6%- 13044

3- 27.0%- 12797

4- 38.2%- 11986(Crucial)

5- 50.0%- 11132(Crucial)

6- 61.8%- 10278(Crucial)

7- 70.7%-  9633

8- 76.4%-  9220

9- 78.6%-  9061 

10-88.6%-  8337 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

As more than 13% correction has been happened therefore Fibonacci retracement levels of Whole Wave Structure(7511.10-14753.55) has been updated because "ABC" correction according to its levels may be seen in the coming weeks/months/years.

 

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.

3- Short Term Trend has turned down. 

Immediate maximum target of Nifty was told at 14754.25 on 16-01-2021 and Nifty crashed 1156 points from 14753.55 which was 0.70 points below the given level and it means that given Waves structure is still valid because last Friday closing was below 55-Day SMA(13654) after more than 13% retracement. 

As eruption of new variant of Coronavirus therefore all the Global markets are crashing and most markets closed in deep Red last Friday. Although Union-Budget will be tabled next Monday and Indian markets will react according to its announcements as well as next session will be highly volatile therefore firstly sustaining beyond following crucial levels should be firstly watched in next week to understand final reaction of Indian markets on Union-Budget and new variant of Coronavirus:-

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 13500-13546

2- 13193-13286

3- 23.6% retracement levels- 13044

Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 13841-13898

2- 14120-14194

3- 14455-14619

4- 14701-14753

Although Nifty closed below last 25 sessions lowest after loosing 270 points in last hour last Friday but consolidation patterns formations between 13730-13816 in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for next Trend confirmation after Union-Budget Next Monday as well as under the shadow of crashing Global markets due to new variant of Coronavirus.

Firstly Watch 13714-13770 amid crashing Global markets and Budget expectation

Mid-session Outlook(29-01-2021)

Global markets are as follows today morning;-

Dow Jones Futures- 360 Points down

Hang Seng- 0.81% down

Taiwan- 1.51% down

Kospi- 3.37% down

Nikkei- 1.83% down

Although such crashing like situation in all Global markets to day morning but Indian markets traded Out Performing and most time traded in Green since opening today. 

As lower levels supports between 13714-13770 yesterday therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today amid crashing Global markets and Budget expectation next Monday.

Strong Pull Back Rally tomorrow

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(29-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 13841-13898

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Sharp up

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Whole day actual trading between 13714-13898

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were in crashing mode today morning after more than 2% yesterday fall of all US markets Indices therefore huge gap down opening of Indian markets today.

Although firstly more than 2 hours selling but after that lower levels consolidation through down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore Sharp up moves were seen in last 4 hours which could not move above 13841 because good selling was above it today. 

As today down moves were due to crashing Global markets and Dow Jones is now trading more than 600 points up as well as such higher Dow Jones closing today will lead rally in Asian markets tomorrow therefore resultant up moves will be seen in Indian markets also. 

As lower levels consolidation today and Very Short Term indicators have turned Over sold as well as possibility of Bullish Global markets tomorrow therefore resultant strong Pull Back Rally will be seen in Indian markets also.

13772-13912 will confirm Indian markets reaction on Budget and crashing Global markets 

Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2021)

As most Asian markets were in crashing mode after more than 2% fall of all US markets Indices therefore huge gap down opening of Indian markets and Nifty is trading between 13795-13898 since today morning which is within previous Outlook mentioned supports(13772-13912).

Indian markets will have to react on Budget expectations and crashing Global markets and  Finally sustaining beyond 13772-13912 will confirm next trend as the result of these 2 developments therefore firstly sustaining beyond 13772-13912 should be watched in the coming sessions for Indian markets final reaction and resultant next trend. 

Strong Pull back Rally in the coming 1/2 sessions

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(28-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14120-14194

2- Down moves with upward corrections

3- Consolidation between 13930-14010

4- Whole day actual trading between 13930-14237

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

In both previous Outlooks possibility of huge/sharp fall was told after sustaining below 14265 and it was seen today because following next supports were much below 14265:- 

1- 13875-13912

2- 13815-13845

3- 13772-13811(Gap supports)

Slipping 75 points in first 10 seconds and after that selling through Down moves with upward corrections therefore correction continuation and closing below 14000 today.  

Although last more than 1 hour consolidation between 13930-14010 but higher levels good selling also therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for fresh rally above 14000.

As crashing like situation in all Global markets therefore more weakness can not be ruled out tomorrow but Very Short Term indicators have turned Oversold and consolidation was seen at lower levels today as well as above mentioned multiple supports are lying below today lowest therefore expected that strong Pull back Rally will be seen in the coming 1/2 sessions after fresh consolidation above 13815.

 Firstly watch sustaining beyond 14265

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(27-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14455-14480

2- Sharp fall

3- Selling between 14324-14432

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Whole day actual trading between 14218-14491

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 23-01-2021 in "Firstly watch crucial levels in Budget news led highly volatile next week":-

1- Nifty will firstly prepare for post-Budget big moves between and near about 14265-14528 in the beginning of next week

2- As strong resistances are above it therefore Nifty will have to consolidate completely for crossing and sustaining above those resistances

3- Remain completely careful because fresh selling within this range and sustaining below 14265 will mean huge fall because next supports are much below it. 

Nifty traded first 6 hours between 14265-14528 and slipped below it in last half hour after good selling above it last Monday therefore more down moves are expected tomorrow, follow up selling and once sustaining below 14265 will mean sharp fall possibility also therefore remain cautious.

As Union Budget led volatility can not be ruled out and last hour Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel last Monday therefore some up moves possibility can not be ruled but until complete consolidation will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move and sustain above 14265. 

Global markets are also highly volatile due to new variant of coronavirus therefore firstly sustaining beyond 14265 should be watched tomorrow for slow up moves above it and sharp fall below it.

समस्त हिन्दुस्थानियों को 

72 वें गणतंत्र दिवस की हार्दिक शुभकामनायें 

Wishing you all Hindusthanis 

Happy Republic Day 2021