Just Watch Crucial levels amid Global Markets led High volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-02-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Only intraday volatility
2- Whole day actual trading between 7366-7457

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Jones closed 183 points up yesterday and its Futures was also trading more than 65 points up today morning therefore most Asian markets were trading in Green and some were more than 1% up,resultant Indian markets opened with good gains as well as Nifty moved up 65 points in first 2 minutes. Although Nifty closed 42 points up today but on EOD chart Doji candle(indecision) formation today which means market is undecided for any side next Short Term Trend.

As Nifty got supports at and above 7350 and in last 2 sessions and next supports below it are between 7242-7320 therefore if finally Nifty sustains above it then fresh rally will be seen after previous Pull Back Rally correction completion. 

High volatility in all the Global markets therefore in reaction Indian markets also remained very choppy in this week and as such one sided intraday technical positions formation were also not seen in previous sessions. As no gossiping never guessing and whatsoever intraday charts analysis suggest,only that is always updated therefore let clear patterns develop then next decisive moves will be updated accordingly otherwise till then just watch above mentioned crucial levels for confirmation amid such high volatile markets:-

1- Next supports are between 7242-7320 and its valid breaking down will mean again decisive down moves.
2- Next resistances are between 7552-7640 and its valid breaking out will mean fresh strong up moves. 

As busy in a marriage therefore today Outlook will not be updated but Mid Session Outlook may be posted during trading hours today.

Pre-open Outlook(03-02-2016)

Crashing like situation in all the Global markets in following manner today morning:-

1- All the Asian markets are trading 1% to 3.1% down.
2- Dow Jones closed 1.8% down yesterday
3- All the European markets closed 1.8% to 3.0% down yesterday.

As sentiment is completely depressed today morning therefore gap down opening below next supports(7420-7447) will be seen in Indian market also. Next supports below it are between 7242-7320 and once sustaining below 7420 will mean testing of next supports.

We posted following topic on 01-02-2016 and just keep in mind today also:-

Fresh Long Positions after Today started Correction Completion Confirmations

Correction started on 01-02-2015 and same day we clearly told through above topic that fresh buying should be done after correction completion confirmations.

Firstly Watch Next Sufficiently Strong Supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-02-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Feb-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly RBI Credit policy led high volatility
2- Last 2 hours down moves after European markets weakness and Dow's Futures more than 110 points slipping
3- Whole day actual trading between 7429-7576

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As 25 BPS cut in Repo rate was expected today but RBI keeps repo rate & CRR unchanged in monetary policy review therefore immediate fall after its announcement. Although some recovery was seen in mid session but again sharp fall after European markets weakness and Dow's Futures more than 110 points slipping.

It is clear that today intraday moves were completely news based and not after technical positions formations therefore final conclusions will be drawn through EOD charts and levels:-

1- Correction of that Pull Back rally is on which started on 20-01-2016 from 7242 and completed on 01-02-2016 at 7600
2- Resistances between 7552-7606 were updated in previous Outlooks and Nifty could not cross this range but sharply slipped below it after follow up selling within it yesterday
3- Next supports are between 7420-7447 and once sustaining below 7420 will mean again sharp fall towards next supports(7242-7320)

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Fresh Long Positions after Today started Correction Completion" Confirmations" and being repeated for tomorrow Outlook:-

1- some more correction can not be ruled out in the coming sessions 
2- Next decisive up moves will be seen after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 7640 
3- let today started correction completion confirmations come then fresh long positions should be created.

As next supports are between 7420-7447 are sufficiently strong therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for yesterday started correction continuation/completion.

Fresh Long Positions after Today started Correction Completion Confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(02-02-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Feb-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor support between 7558-7571
2- Selling between 7586-7600
3- More than 4 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 7542-7600

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told at 01:49 AM today in "Pull Back rally continuation after follow up consolidation":-

1- Very Short Term oscillators turned overbought after last 7 sessions rally
2- resistances are also lying just above previous session highest
3- intraday correction from intraday higher levels may be seen any day

As was told 100% same happened today and intraday correction from intraday higher levels was seen today. 

Although some selling near the higher levels of the day today but more than 4 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel was also seen therefore today intraday correction will be understood a part of follow up consolidation process after last 7 sessions 334 points Pull Back Rally.

Resistances between 7552-7606 were updated in previous Outlook and today selling within this range between 7586-7600 and next resistances are also lying up to 7640 as well as correction of previous 334 points rally has also begun today therefore possibility of some more correction can not be ruled out in the coming sessions but finally Pull Back rally continuation is still expected after follow up consolidation.

Next decisive up moves will be seen after follow up consolidation and sustaining above 7640 and let today started correction completion confirmations come then fresh long positions should be created.

Pull Back rally continuation after follow up consolidation

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 01 to Feb 05,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C recent bottom at 7241.50 on 20-01-2016
10- Pull Back rally is on now with recent top formation at 7575.65 on 29-01-2016

10 Months Correction in Bullish Flag formations 

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
3- Recent bottom of correction at 7241.50 on 20-01-2016
4- 10 Months correction in Bullish Flag formations

Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going ABC Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
3- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 7241.50 on 20-01-2016
4- Crucial 50.0% retracement level is at 7118 which is little below recent bottom

 Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down and will be up after sustaining above 7721
3- Long Term Trend is down and will be up after sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7971) 

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 gained 4000 points and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after many times new life times high formation and after that its 'ABC' correction started which is in continuation now and no confirmation of its completion yet.

ABC correction of 4000 points rally between 5118-9119 is on which will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%- 8598
2- 23.6%- 8174
3- 27.0%- 8038
4- 38.2%- 7590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 6646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 6290
8- 76.4%- 6062
9- 78.6%- 5974 
10-88.6%- 5574 

Next supports of Nifty are as follows

1- 7420-7447
2- 7242-7320

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows

1- 7552-7606
2- 7614-7640
3- 7675-7721(Gap)

Whole 10 months correction from 9119.20 to 7241.50 in Falling channel with Bullish Flag formations. As Flag will remain valid up to near about 7100 and 50% retracement level is also near it at 7118 therefore strong possibility of correction completion will be considered near about 7100. If on going correction finally completes above 7100 then that will be confirmation of Bullish Flag validity which will mean fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after 18 months(Aug,28 2013-Apr,04 2015) long and 4000 points(5118.85-9119.20) rally correction completion.

Although 334 points strong recovery from lower levels in last 7 sessions but no confirmation of on going big correction completion which will be considered after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8971).

Certainly Pull Back Rally is on and its continuation will be seen because no selling pattern yet but a Bullish development last Friday after 3 Sessions Trading Range forcefully broken out that day.

As Very Short Term oscillators turned overbought after last 7 sessions rally and resistances are also lying just above previous session highest therefore intraday correction from intraday higher levels may be seen any day but finally Pull Back rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidation between above mentioned levels.