Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 01 to Jun 05,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)('ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Pull Back rally continuation after Wave-'C' completion 

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Nifty hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it. 
11- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 from 24-04-2015 to 15-05-2015 and this range broken out on 18-05-2015.
12- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in 15 sessions with its Neckline at 8365 which was broken out on 18-05-2015.
13- 15 sessions trading range top and Neckline(8365) of Inverted Head and Shoulders was broken down 2 times in previous week but finally sharply moved up above 8365 on 29-05-2015

Waves structure of 'ABC'on going correction

 Nifty-EOD Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Sub Wave-1(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Sub Wave-2(8270.15 on 28-05-2015)
7- Sub Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,443.90 on 29-05-2015

Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8370-8443 in 5 last hours.
2- Whole day actual trading between 8305-8443

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the higher levels of the day with 1.38% gains but mixed(both buying and selling) Patterns formations between 8370-8443 in last 5 hours therefore selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June and follow up consolidation is must in the beginning of next week for rally continuation.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 commenced from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015. After that 'ABC'correction begun which finished at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015 and it is just above the bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) therefore it is clear that Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction. Following Bullish developments at the bottom of Wave-'C':-

1- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with its Neckline at 8365 broken out.
2- 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 and its top at 8365 broken out.
3- Nifty tested and hovered around 11 sessions Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8209) and finally sustained above it.

As above most crucial and Bullish patterns near the bottom of Wave-'C' therefore strong indications of 'ABC'correction completion because:-

1- As 42 Sessions correction from  04-03-2015 to 17-12-2014 and 15 sessions Bullish pattern formation near the bottom of correction therefore it is sufficient for  time wise correction completion.
2- Wave-5 has almost completely retraced in previous 'ABC' correction therefore price wise correction completion can also be considered

Sub Wave-3 is on and as per following calculations its minimum target is at

As per Elliot Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Impulsive Sub Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Sub Wave-1 gained.

Sub Wave-1 gained 8489.55-7997.15=492.40 Points

Sub Wave-3 started from 8270.15 and and as per Elliot Wave theory it should gain minimum 492.40 because it can not be shorter than Sub Wave-1 therefore its minimum target is at:-

8762.55=8270.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+492.40(Sub Wave-1 gained)

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8431-8462
2- 8486-8502
3- 8522-8564
4- 8640-8468
5- 8690-8750
6- 8777-8784
7- 8802-8844

Wave-5 has almost completely corrected and Bullish patterns formations at the bottom of  Wave-'C' therefore strong signals of that whole rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. It also means that Nifty is now prepared for fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after previous rally correction completion.

For Short Term now Pull Back Rally continuation towards 8762.55 will be understood in the coming weeks but follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015 and above mentioned multiple resistances above previous week closing.

View is Cautious after Nifty Jun Fut closing in discount on Expiry day today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 8271-8295(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8271-8364

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As huge fall in Shanghai and Hang Seng therefore continuous slipping immediately after opening up to 01:00 PM but Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels good consolidation was also seen therefore technically view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation.

One rare development was seen today that Nifty Jun Fut closed in discount at 8318.55 while most of the time next month Fut were being closed on Expiry day with near about or above 50 Points Premium. As today closing in discount therefore view is cautious and fresh selling beginning possibility on the back of Repo Rates cut hopes by RBI (on 2nd June Credit policy) will also be considered.  

Certainly view is cautious and watchful because following contradictory developments:-

1- Intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore Indian markets are technically poised for up moves.
2- All around rates cut expectations are turning high therefore Jun Fut should have closed with good premium but closed in discount therefore if selling develops in this positive news led heated sentiments then huge fall may be seen even after RBI Rates cut.

Two  Trading sessions are left before RBI Credit Policy and big moves are expected after its announcement. Let follow up technical positions formations develop in next 2 sessions then will be firstly understood through intraday charts patterns formations and then will updated accordingly. 

No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest only that is always updated. Let market prepare for next trend and decisive moves conclusions come then will be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years.

View not be Bearish after Shanghai & Hang Seng led huge Fall

Mid-session Outlook(28-05-2015)

As consolidation yesterday therefore positive opening in Indian markets but down moves started because sentiment completely dampened after huge fall beginning in following Asian markets:-

Shanghai closed now 321(6.50%) down.
Hang Seng is now trading 826(2.94%) down.

As today fall in Indian markets is Asian markets driven and all the European markets are also in Red today therefore view will not be Bearish and fresh up moves are expected above today highest after 1/2 sessions consolidation because:-

1- Today intraday patterns are not showing selling formations.
2- Last 2 sessions intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations. 

Rally continuation after Consolidation Today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Lower levels supports between 8278-8295(Immediate Supports)
2- Sharp 40 points up in 9 minutes.
3- Consolidation between 8308-8320(Immediate Supports)
4- Whole day actual trading between 8278-8342

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As sharp 40 points up after lower levels supports and good consolidation between 8308-8320 therefore fresh up moves are expected in the coming sessions because good consolidation above today highest was also seen yesterday.

Fresh Rally within 1/2 days without sustaining below 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-May-2015):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8347-8369 
2- Consolidation between 8321-8337 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8321-8378

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time negative zone trading and 0.37% down closing also today but whole day Consolidation Patterns formations therefore Indian markets will be understood under consolidation phase because selling patterns were not seen today. As US markets are trading more than 1% down after most European markets more than 1% down closing therefore negative zone or gap down opening may be seen Indian markets tomorrow if such weakness will be seen in Asian markets tomorrow morning. 

As signals of Indian markets moving into consolidation phase therefore expected that fresh rally will start within 1/2 days after yesterday started correction completion and Nifty will not sustain below 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).

8365 and 8201 will decide Length and Life of today started Correction

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8415-8441
2- Mixed Patterns between 8365-8400 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8365-8441

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:28 AM on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

1- firstly down moves will be seen in next week
2- Short Term Correction below day's lowest(8421) will be seen in the beginning of next week.
3- emergence of Short Term Correction possibility in the beginning of next week
4- Nifty will firstly slip 

As was told 100% same happened and firstly down moves were seen today and Nifty traded whole day in Red as well as closed 88.70 points down today.

Although Nifty closed near the lowest of the day but today intraday patterns are showing mixed Patterns formations therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves beyond today trading range. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within and near about today trading range(8365-8441) and finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend.

Only Short Term Correction was expected and it was seen today,let Nifty sustain below 8365 then correction continuation will be considered towards following next supports:-

1- Supports between 8247-8255
2- Supports between 8229-8250 
3- Supports between 8157-8189 

Detailed analysis with next resistances of Nifty have already been updated in Weekly analysis of this week and length of today started correction will be decided by following crucial levels also:-

1- 8365(Neckline of Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders was broken out break out on 18-05-2015)
2- 8365(Top of 15 sessions trading range was broken out break out on 18-05-2015)
3- 8201(Last 7 sessions sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA)

Nifty tested 8365 but closed above it today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow because it will decide the valid break out of above mentioned Bullish pattern and trading range.

Short Term Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet, As length and life of today started correction will be decided by above mentioned 2 levels(8365 and 8201) therefore finally sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for correction continuation / completion confirmations.