Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 21-02-2011

H6 5606     Trgt 2
H5 5571     Trgt 1
H4 5537     Long breakout
H3 5495     Go Short
H2 5481
H1 5467
L1 5438
L2 5424
L3 5410     Long
L4 5368     Short Breakout
L5 5334     Trgt 1
L6 5299     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 21-02-2011

H6 11326     Trgt 2
H5 11236     Trgt 1
H4 11145     Long breakout
H3 11036     Go Short
H2 10999
H1 10963
L1 10890
L2 10854
L3 10817     Long
L4 10708     Short Breakout
L5 10617     Trgt 1
L6 10527     Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 21-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 5715
R2 5657
R1 5557
AVG 5499
S1 5399
S2 5341
S3 5241

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 5702
R2 5645
R1 5549
AVG 5492
S1 5396
S2 5339
S3 5243

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 21-02-2011

R3 11575
R2 11427
R1 11177
AVG 11029
S1 10779
S2 10631
S3 10381

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (21 Feb to 25 Feb 2011)

R3 5850
R2 5724
R1 5591
AVG 5465
S1 5332
S2 5206
S3 5073

Post-closing report(18-02-2011)

Positive closing was expected after positive opening today but Market was nervous after the news of CBI raid on DMK chief M.Karunanidhi family members and market reacted with steep fall today. Indian markets closed in Red today.

-Sensex closed at 14665.92 and 295.30 points down today.
-Nifty closed at 4429.90 and 87.50 points down today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-02-2011)

It was told 5 times in last 3 sessions that Nifty will cross 5520,it happed and Nifty closed 5546 yesterday.

Short term and intermediate term trends are up and long term trend is down. Long term trend will be up after sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5616). 5640-5850 is strong resistance range. Market require complete consolidation and  will take its own full time to cross 5850. It is confirm that crossing 5850 will mean removal of most bearish technical positions and Indian markets will zoom up above 5850.

Coming couple of sessions will decide that Indian markets are preparing for Union Budget 2011 below or within mentioned resistance range(5640-5850) and it will also be tried to project post Budget Indian markets moves before its tabelling in Parliament on the basis of  intraday charts formations next week. This fact can be verified from my orkut.com profle that I told on 25-02-2010 before Bubget 2010:-

"WHATSOEVER MAY THE BUDGET 2010 BUT RALLY WILL BE SEEN AFTER BUDGET-2010 AND NIFTY WILL TEST 5150 IN MARCH 2010"

All very well know that my above post budget-2010 projection was prooved 100% accurate.

Small intraday corrections will be seen before any up move but Indian markets require sufficient selling patterns for any down moves and whenever it will happen then will be told well in advanve before any down moves begining on the basis on intraday charts patterns.

200-Day EMA(today at 5616) tesing is possible within coming of sessions and Positive closing expected after positive opening today.

Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-18-02-2011

H6  5637    Trgt 2
H5  5616    Trgt 1
H4  5595    Long breakout
H3  5570    Go Short
H2  5562
H1  5554

L1  5537
L2  5529
L3  5521    Go Long
L4  5496    Short Breakout
L5  5475    Trgt 1
L6  5454    Trgt 2

Trading Strategy for Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-18-02-2011

H6  11398    Trgt 2
H5  11336    Trgt 1
H4  11274    Long breakout
H3  11202    Go Short
H2  11178
H1  11154

L1  11105
L2  11081
L3  11057     Go Long
L4  10985    Short Breakout
L5  10923    Trgt 1
L6  10861    Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 18-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 5668
R2 5610
R1 5578
AVG 5520
S1 5488
S2 5430
S3 5398

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 5667
R2 5608
R1 5577
AVG 5518
S1 5487
S2 5428
S3 5397

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 18-02-2011

R3 11495
R2 11334
R1 11232
AVG 11071
S1 10969
S2 10808
S3 10706

Post-closing report(17-02-2011)

Nifty closed at 5546 today but I told for this up move above 5520 non stop daily in the last 3 sessions in following words:-

1- Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)-" finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions"

2- Mid-session outlook(17-02-2011)-"crossing 5520 is strong upmove confirmaton and it is being expected for the last 2 sessions also"

3-Post-open outlook(16-02-2011)"technically poised to cross 5520 and its happening expected within couple of sessions"

4-Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-02-2011)- "finally rally expected after clearing 5520"

5-Mid-session outlook-2(15-02-2011)- "5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions"

My outlooks posted from last Friday are live proof of this fact that I non stop told for rally from 5200 and noves above 5520.

Mid-session outlook-2(17-02-2011)

5520 crossing projected 4 times in Following lines in last 3 days:-

1-Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-02-2011)- "finally rally expected after clearing 5520"

2-Mid-session outlook-2(15-02-2011)- "5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions"

3-Post-open outlook(16-02-2011)"technically poised to cross 5520 and its happening expected within couple of sessions"

4- Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)-" finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions"

Nifty trading at 5549 at present. As strong resistance crossing confirmations therefore now intermediate term trend will be up above 5556 and Nifty will counter 200-Day EMA and strong resistance range(5640-5780) in next week.

Mid-session outlook(17-02-2011)

Following lines were told in Post-open outlook today:-

"Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels after opening but intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns. Firstly 5460 and then 5420 will be watched for consolidation confirmation"

Nifty got support at 5464 today and reversed therefore support at 5460 strengthened. ctossing 5520 is strong upmove confirmaton and it is being expected for the last 2 sessions also.

Post-open outlook(17-02-2011)

Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-

"Doji candle formation with partially mixed patterns yesterday therefore more consolidation is required within 5420-5520"

As told, same happened and Nifty is trading within mentioned range since opening today. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels after opening but intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns. Firstly 5460 and then 5420 will be watched for consolidation confirmation. Market will take its own time and finally crossing of 5520 is also expected but 5420-5520 will also be kept in mind for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(17-02-2011)

Nifty traded whole day within resistance range 5460-5520 yesterday and most of the time Nifty traded and consolidated within this range in last 2 days.

Nifty last 2 days intraday chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Sentiment was heated due to positive announcement expectations in P.M. press conference and some retail buying possibility can not be ruled out yesterday. Doji candle formation with partially mixed patterns yesterday therefore more consolidation is required within 5420-5520 today. View is bullish and crossing of 5520 is also expected but little more consolidation is demand of confimation today.

Firstly trading within 5460-5520 today and finally crossing 5520 expected in couple of sessions.

Post-closing report(16-02-2011)

I made following predictions before opening which proved 100% accurate after closing today:-

1- Next resistance range- 5460-5520
2- As Indian markets have to prepare and consolidate within resistance range therefore will trade within it first before any cross over
3- View is bullish and opening to closing moves within 5420-5520 expected today

- As I told 100% same happened and


1- Nifty traded within 5460-5505 today.
2- Nifty  whole day traded and closed within mentioned range at 5481.70.
3- It was no where told that closing will be in Green or Red and Indian markets closed flat today.

-Sensex closed 27.10 points up today.
-Nifty closed 0.70 points up today.

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 17-02-2011

H6 11083     Trgt 2
H5 11057     Trgt 1
H4 11030     Long breakout
H3 10998     Go Short
H2 10987
H1 10976
L1 10955
L2 10944
L3 10933     Long
L4 10901     Short Breakout
L5 10874     Trgt 1
L6 10848     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 17-02-2011

H6 5535    Trgt 2
H5 5523    Trgt 1
H4 5512    Long breakout
H3 5498    Go Short
H2 5494
H1 5489
L1 5480
L2 5475
L3 5471    Long
L4 5457    Short Breakout
L5 5446    Trgt 1
L6 5434    Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 17-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 5549
R2 5527
R1 5504
AVG 5482
S1 5459
S2 5437
S3 5414

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 5559
R2 5533
R1 5509
AVG 5483
S1 5459
S2 5433
S3 5409

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 17-02-2011

R3 11135
R2 11071
R1 11018
AVG 10954
S1 10901
S2 10837
S3 10784

Post-open outlook(16-02-2011)

Flat trading within 5475-5495 since opening and its decisive break out can be expected after P.M.press conference at 11 am today and volatility may be seen during or immediately after its completion.

Nifty is trading within resistance range(5460-5520) but technically poised to cross 5520 and its happening expected within couple of sessions.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-02-2011)

Following levels were given yesterday. As relevant therefore being repeated as follows:-

1- Next resistance range- 5460-5520
2- Intermediate term trend is down and will be up above 5556.

As consolidation requires for any up move therefore:-

1- Nifty trading range was given Yesterday- 5420-5500.
2- Nifty achual trading range was Yesterday- 5408-5507.

As Indian markets have to prepare and consolidate within resistance range therefore will trade within it first before any cross over. Intraday charts of yesterdy are suggesting consolidation and same expected today also within 5420-5520.

View is bullish and opening to closing moves within 5420-5520 expected today.

Trading Levels for 16-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 16-02-2011

R3 5620
R2 5563
R1 5522
AVG 5465
S1 5424
S2 5367
S3 5326

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 16-02-2011

R3 5628
R2 5566
R1 5521
AVG 5459
S1 5414
S2 5352
S3 5307

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 16-02-2011

R3 11379
R2 11194
R1 11065
AVG 10880
S1 10751
S2 10566
S3 10437

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 16-02-2011

H6 11257     Trgt 2
H5 11182     Trgt 1
H4 11108     Long breakout
H3 11022     Go Short
H2 10993
H1 10964
L1 10907
L2 10878
L3 10849     Long
L4 10763     Short Breakout
L5 10689     Trgt 1
L6 10614     Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 16-02-2011

H6 5584     Trgt 2
H5 5559     Trgt 1
H4 5534     Long breakout
H3 5505     Go Short
H2 5495
H1 5485
L1 5466
L2 5456
L3 5446     Long
L4 5417     Short Breakout
L5 5392     Trgt 1
L6 5367     Trgt 2

Post-closing report(15-02-2011)

Today predictions are as follows:-

1- Pre-Open Outlook- "finally positive market expected today within 5420-5500"
2- Post-Open Outlook- " minor intraday correction possibility can not be ruled out today and will be better to buy after intraday correction completion"
3- Mid-session Outlook- "Expected that intraday correction will complete within 5387-5420.
4- Mid-session Outlook-2- " Bullish outlook is maintaned and expected intraday correction has been completed

Exact guideance was provided through accurate predictions whole day.Firstly intraday correction and then its completion within mentioned range at 5409 was seen and according to projected bullish outlook market closed in Green.

-Sensex closed 71.60 points up today.
-Nifty closed 25.00 points up today.

Mid-session outlook-2(15-02-2011)

Firstly intraday correction and after that its completion within 5387-5420  was told and exactly same happened,correction completed at 5409 and market reversed.

Today trading range was given 5420-5500 and Nifty is trading at 5487 after forming the low at 5409. Bullish outlook is maintaned and expected intraday correction has been completed. Now firstly trading within resistance range 5460-5520 and 5520 crossing expected within couple of sessions.

Mid-session outlook(15-02-2011)

As minor intraday correction was expected therefore today expected range of 5420-5500 was given in Pre-open outlook and after watching intraday correction signals expected lower levels were also posted immediately after opening in Post-open outlook.

As sentiment is heated today morning therefore next level 5387 will also be kept in mind for  correction completion confirmations. 

Expected that intraday correction will complete within 5387-5420.

Post-open outlook(15-02-2011)

Range bound market on expected lines and minor intraday correction possibility can not be ruled out today and will be better to buy after intraday correction completion confirmations.Following intraday levels should be watched for intraday completion confirmation:-

1 5443
2 5432
3 5421

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-02-2011)

Negative news based started corrective Wave-4 ended last Friday at 5177 and Wave-5 begun. Wave structure has already been discussed in Weekly Analysis(14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011). As per my view all those bullish expectations will be fulfilled in Wave-5 impulsive rally which were dreamed in the begining of 2011. Technical targets will be discussed in the coming sessions and next crucial points are as follows:-

1- Short term trend is up
2- Inhermediate term trend is down and will be up above 5556.
3- Long term trend is down and will be up after sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5622)

Resistance ranges are as follows:-

1- 5460-5520
2- 5640-5780(Strong resistance)
3- 5800-5850
4- 6150-6180
5- 6240-6320

Consolidation requires after every rise to clear above resistances. Wave-5 begining indications but technically confirmations required for any move and crossing 5780 will be all type of bullish market confirmation because that will be cleariance of strong resistance and confirmation of all trends turning upward also.

As Nifty has to clear next resistance(5460-5520) therefore 1/2 sessions narrow range/slow moves may be seen in consolidation process but finally rally expected after clearing 5520.

Quiet and finally positive market expected today within 5420-5500.

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 15-02-2011

H6 5588    Trgt 2
H5 5557    Trgt 1
H4 5527    Long breakout
H3 5491    Go Short
H2 5479
H1 5467
L1 5442
L2 5430
L3 5418    Long
L4 5382    Short Breakout
L5 5352    Trgt 1
L6 5321    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 15-02-2011

H6 11129    Trgt 2
H5 11051    Trgt 1
H4 10972    Long breakout
H3 10882    Go Short
H2 10852
H1 10822
L1 10761
L2 10731
L3 10701    Long
L4 10611    Short Breakout
L5 10532    Trgt 1
L6  10454   Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 15-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 5621
R2 5542
R1 5498
AVG 5419
S1 5375
S2 5296
S3 5252

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 5633
R2 5550
R1 5502
AVG 5419
S1 5371
S2 5288
S3 5240

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 11235
R2 11022
R1 10907
AVG 10694
S1 10579
S2 10366
S3 10251

Post-closing report(14-02-2011)

Indian markets botom out at 5177 on 11-02-2011 and Nifty gained 285 points in 2 sessions but before the begining of all these up moves I predicted before the begining of rally with following heading of Pre-open outlook(11-02-2011):-

"Pre-Budget Pull Back Rally Possible"

Only bullish views were expressed in last 2 sessions 7 outlooks and today outlooks as well. Result is clear and Indian markets closed with huge gains today and with good gains last Friday.

-Sensex closed 473.59 points up today.
-Nifty closed 146.00 points up today.

Mid-session outlook(14-02-2011)

Bullish views were expresssed in following lines at 01:30 pm last Friday when Nifty was at 5220:-

"As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments"

Bullish moves proved in weekly(14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011) and continuation of rally also told in today Pre-open outlook. As signals of 5th wave begining therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes fulfilment possibility is high. Although long term and intermediate term trends are stil down but expected that Nifty will finally cross all resistances and all the trends will be up after sustaining above 200-Day EMA.

Next resistance range is 5460-5520 and its crossing expected in the coming sessions after some more consolidations within it.

As 4th wave termination and 5th wave begining signals therefore views are so bullish from last Friday.

Pre-open outlook(14-02-2011)

Following points have been discussed in Weekly Analysis(14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011) and will be kept in mind to decide coming months Indian markets:-

1- Jan 2011 begun correction was Wave-4,which corrected Wave-3 rally(3919-6339) and Wave-5 begun after last week support at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line(5177).

2- After complete analysis of weekly and Daily indicators it is confirm that Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due.

3- Indian markets got good support at 5177 and moves below does not seems possible. Maximum down move last technical possibility is at 5130(calculations have been posted in weeekly). As per my view bottom has been formed and Nifty will not dip below 5177.

Global markets are positive today morning and sentiment is also heated therefore some voltality after intraday correction can not be ruled out today but rally will remain continued. Safe traders may wait for buying after completion of intraday corrections.

Wave-5 begun & Rally Expected

Weekly Analysis- 14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011

Waves structure of Indian markets is as follows:-

Nifty topped at 6357 on 08-01-2008 and Indian markets corrected that rally which started on 28-04-2003 from 929.50. 2008 was correction year and Nifty corrected in 5 waves upto 2252 on 27-10-2008. Indian markets remained range bound and consolidated 5 months within 2500-3100. Fresh rally started in March 2009 and:-

1- 1st impulsive wave begining from 2252(27-10-2008) got confirmation.
2- 1st wave finished at 4693 on 12-06-2009 and 2nd corrective wave started.
3- 2nd corrective wave finished at 3919 on 13-07-2009 and 3rd impulsive wave started.

Wave-1 gained:-4693-2252= 2441 points

As per Eliot Wave theory "Wave-3 can not be shorter than both wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore Wave-3 was bound to gain minimum points of Wave-1(2441)

Wave-3 minimum target was:- 3919(started from)+2441(minimum gain)= 6360

Wave-3 tested 6339(21 points short from its minimum target) on 05-11-2010 and "ABC" correction begun. Although Nifty could not got its minimum target(6360) and remained short by only 21 points but in 2420 points rally mere 21 points shorting is negligible and:-

4- 3rd impulsive wave termination at 6339 is confirmed on 05-11-2010 and 4th corrective wave started same day.

1- Waves Structure of Indian markets Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

5- Wave-4 corrective wave has to correct 2440 points up move of Wave 3 and Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-3 are as follows:-

38.2%- 5414(Has been corrected)
50.0%- 5129(Has to correct)
61.8%- 4843
70.7%- 4628
76.4%- 4490
78.6%- 4436
88.6%- 4194

2-Fibonacci Correction levels of Wave-3 Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

6- Wave-4 is correcting in "ABC" waves and according to "ABC" waves structure correction Targets are as follows:-

1- 'A' Wave- 6339-5690= 649 points down
2- 'B' Wave- 6181-5690= 491 points UP
3- 'C' Wave- Target-

1-6181-649(100.0% Retracement)=5532
2-6181-897(138.2% Retracement)=5284
3-6181-974(150.0% Retracement)=5207(Has been corrected)
4-6181-1050(161.8% Retracement)=6131(Has to correct)

3-ABC corrcetion Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions from Waves structure Analysis

Termination point of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 level has to be acquired. Possibilities are as follows:-


1- Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement 50% level is at '5129' and "C" Wave 161.8% Retracement target is at '6131' therefore "Wave-4 termination snd Wave-5 begining possibility near 5130 is high." 


3- As Nifty got good support near 5200 and reversed sharply from 5177 on 11-02-2011  therefore termination of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 can not be ruled out last Friday.


Either Wave-5 has been started last Friday after completion of "ABC" correction or will positively start from 5130 which is support from 2 different technical angles.

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the main averages. It is showing complete weakness because Nifty is below 55-Week EMA AND Nifty has to sustain above it for any sustained rally.Rally begining will get confirmation after moving above 5-Week EMA. As showed complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum a relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding with the fall of Nifty value and Nifty is below lower band for the last 2 weeks. As strong buying may push if price is well below lower band  therefore showing up moves possibilities.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in near zero line and gap increased between both lins therefore upmoves indicating to converge both lines.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- In oversold zone and moved up last Ftiday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 4 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 5 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

4- Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

conclusion from Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators and Nifty below Bollinger Band are showing pull back rally rally and bounce back confirm possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators to recover and normalise oversold indicators.


Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Most shorter term averages are below longer term averages and Nifty is below all. It is showing complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding steeply with the fall of Nifty value.All upper,middle and lower are moving downward therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling minimum relief rally to recover from oversold situation.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in oversold zone and MACD line is below Average line. No positive divergence but both lines are in deep oversold area therefore indicating minimum small upmoves possibilities.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- No divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time


7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time
      
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators are showing minimum a pull back rally rally or bounce back possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators recovering from oversold zones.


Supports at Crucial Levels on 11-02-2011

1- Strong Support at 5210
2- Support at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line

6-Supports at Crucial Levels Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Weekly and Daily indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due and that will be seen in the coming week. Nifty got support near 5210 and at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line last Friday therefore Wave-4 "ABC" correction termination begining of Wave-5 from here possibility is high.


Although 5130(reasons already explained above) is technical possibility but after finding good support near 5210 in last 2 sessions it seems very much possible that Wave-5 has begun last Friday and fresh rally will spark in the coming wek. 


As sentiment heated therefore intraday correction expected on Monday but Rally will be seen finally.

Rally(Wave-5) started from 5177 on 11-02-2011

 Waves structure of Indian markets is as follows:-

Nifty topped at 6357 on 08-01-2008 and Indian markets corrected that rally which started on 28-04-2003 from 929.50. 2008 was correction year and Nifty corrected in 5 waves upto 2252 on 27-10-2008. Indian markets remained range bound and consolidated 5 months within 2500-3100. Fresh rally started in March 2009 and:-

1- 1st impulsive wave begining from 2252(27-10-2008) got confirmation.
2- 1st wave finished at 4693 on 12-06-2009 and 2nd corrective wave started.
3- 2nd corrective wave finished at 3919 on 13-07-2009 and 3rd impulsive wave started.

Wave-1 gained:-4693-2252= 2441 points

As per Eliot Wave theory "Wave-3 can not be shorter than both wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore Wave-3 was bound to gain minimum points of Wave-1(2441)

Wave-3 minimum target was:- 3919(started from)+2441(minimum gain)= 6360

Wave-3 tested 6339(21 points short from its minimum target) on 05-11-2010 and "ABC" correction begun. Although Nifty could not got its minimum target(6360) and remained short by only 21 points but in 2420 points rally mere 21 points shorting is negligible and:-

4- 3rd impulsive wave termination at 6339 is confirmed on 05-11-2010 and 4th corrective wave started same day.

1- Waves Structure of Indian markets Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

5- Wave-4 corrective wave has to correct 2440 points up move of Wave 3 and Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-3 are as follows:-

38.2%- 5414(Has been corrected)
50.0%- 5129(Has to correct)
61.8%- 4843
70.7%- 4628
76.4%- 4490
78.6%- 4436
88.6%- 4194

2-Fibonacci Correction levels of Wave-3 Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

6- Wave-4 is correcting in "ABC" waves and according to "ABC" waves structure correction Targets are as follows:-

1- 'A' Wave- 6339-5690= 649 points down
2- 'B' Wave- 6181-5690= 491 points UP
3- 'C' Wave- Target-

1-6181-649(100.0% Retracement)=5532
2-6181-897(138.2% Retracement)=5284
3-6181-974(150.0% Retracement)=5207(Has been corrected)
4-6181-1050(161.8% Retracement)=6131(Has to correct)

3-ABC corrcetion Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions

Termination point of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 level has to be acquired. Possibilities are as follows:-

1- Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement 50% level is at '5129' and "C" Wave 161.8% Retracement target is at '6131' therefore "Wave-4 termination snd Wave-5 begining possibility near 5130 is high."

3- As Nifty got good support near 5200 and reversed sharply from 5177 on 11-02-2011  therefore termination of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 can not be ruled out last Friday.

Either Wave-5 has been started last Friday after completion of "ABC" correction or will positively start from 5130 which is support from 2 different technical angles.

As per my view Rally(Wave-5) has started from 5177 last Friday and sustaining above 5210 will be 100% confirmation.

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the main averages. It is showing complete weakness because Nifty is below 55-Week EMA AND Nifty has to sustain above it for any sustained rally.Rally begining will get confirmation after moving above 5-Week EMA. As showed complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum a relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding with the fall of Nifty value and Nifty is below lower band for the last 2 weeks. As strong buying may push if price is well below lower band  therefore showing up moves possibilities.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in near zero line and gap increased between both lins therefore upmoves indicating to converge both lines.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- In oversold zone and moved up last Ftiday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 4 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 5 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

conclusion from Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators and Nifty below Bollinger Band are showing pull back rally rally and bounce back confirm possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators to recover and normalise oversold indicators. 

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

1-Averages- Most shorter term averages are below longer term averages and Nifty is below all. It is showing complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding steeply with the fall of Nifty value.All upper,middle and lower are moving downward therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling minimum relief rally to recover from oversold situation.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in oversold zone and MACD line is below Average line. No positive divergence but both lines are in deep oversold area therefore indicating minimum small upmoves possibilities.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- No divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time


7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time

conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators are showing minimum a pull back rally rally or bounce back possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators recovering from oversold zones.        

Profitable Predictions

Post-closing report(11-02-2011)

Following conclusive Bullish lines were told in 3 outlooks on 11-02-2011 which prooved not only accurate but also provided accurate guidence at crucial points during trading hours:-

1- Pre-open outlook- "Sustaining above 5220 and positive closing expected today"

2- Mid-session outlook(When Nifty was below 5200)- "As support seen near 5200 yesterday therefore it has to be ascertained today that today move below 5200 is genuine down move or IIP data negative news impact only"

3- Mid-session outlook-2(When Nifty moved above 5200)- "As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments"

When Nifty was trading below 5200 and whole sentiment was completely depressing after weaker IIP data then at that time doubts were shown on that down moves and immediately bullish views posted above 5200.

Nifty closed above 5300 Indian markets closed with good gains according to positive closing views expressed before opening on Indian markets:-.

-Sensex closed 265.57 points up on 11-02-2011
-Nifty closed 84.20 points up at 5310 on 11-02-2011