Next target of Nifty at 9299.10
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 09 to Mar 13,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015
9- Sub Wave-4 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8849.35 on 05-03-2015
Bullish break out of 'Pennant Pattern'
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Mar-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 20 Sessions Correction
2- 'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015
3- Support at the upper line of 'Pennant' on 05-03-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Mar-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 8850-8881(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation between 8893-8922(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8850-8957
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although sharp fall on 04-03-2015 but whole day consolidation patterns were also seen also on 04-03-2015 and as such selling patterns were not visible therefore emergence of first strong signal fresh up moves after 1 day correction completion.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are up and strong Bullish rally continuation with 20 sessions 'Pennant Pattern' formations between 30-01-2015 and 27-02-2015 which was broken out on 28-02-2015. As high expectations from Budget and sentiment remained boiling as well as RBI rates cut was also seen in previous week therefore high volatility was seen but Nifty could not slip below the upper line of 'Pennant' and support got exactly on it on on 05-03-2015 therefore rally continuation hopes are alive.
Corrective Sub Wave-4 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started after RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 but good consolidation was also seen on 05-03-2015 therefore emergence of correction completion signal and if Nifty sustain above the bottom of 05-03-2015 then fresh rally will be seen after Sub Wave-5 confirmation. next possible targets of Sub Wave-5 will be as follows:-
Sub Wave-1 gained 442.95 points(8913.45-8470.50)
Sub Wave-3 gained 449.75 points(9119.20-8669.45)
Sub Wave-3 gained almost 100% of Sub Wave-1(means 449.75 points) and if Sub Wave-5 also gains 100% of Wave-3 after Wave-4 bottom formations confirmation at 8849.35 on 05-03-2015 then next target of Sub Wave-5 will be:-
449.75+8849.35=9299.10
Firstly sustaining above 8849.35 should be watched in next week and its confirmations will mean confirmation of Sub Wave-5 formation and its continuation towards next target at 9299.10 after 100% of Sub Wave-3.
As good supports above 8849.35 on 05-03-2015 and as such good selling not seen above it but on the other hand consolidation patterns were also seen on 04-03-2015 therefore expected that finally Nifty will sustain above 8849.35 and will finally move towards next target at 9299.10.
-------------------------------------Strong Rally after 'Pennant Pattern' break out confirmation through sustaining above last Resistance
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 02 to Feb 05,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
Waves structure of Wave-v of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,941.10 on 26-02-2015
'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 22 Sessions Correction
2- 'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are up and strong recovery from lower levels after Union Budget-2015 amid high volatility and closing above 'Pennant Pattern'which was formed in last 22 Sessions and it is a strong indication of next up moves after Budget. Following resistances were updated on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-
1- Resistances between 8820-8852
2- Resistances between 8918-8936
Nifty faced resistance between 2nd resistance(8918-8936) and closed just below it at 8,901.85 after highest formation just above it at 8,941.10 on Union Budget-2015 day. As 'Pennant Pattern break out therefore strong signal of fresh Up moves but sustaining above mentioned resistance(8936) should also be firstly watched. Once sustaining above it will mean fresh rally beginning because it is last resistance of Nifty and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8941.10 on 28-02-2015 and its Sub Wave-5 is still left for up moves above 8941.10. Although negative reactions on Budget are also coming but Short Term Indicators have started to show positive moves signals. As good selling has not seen yet and strong recovery was also seen after lower levels consolidation on Budget day therefore expected that fresh rally will be seen with new life time high formation in next week but follow up consolidation with sustaining above last resistance (8936) is must because that will be 'Pennant Pattern' break out confirmation also.
-------------------------------------Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 23 to Feb 28,2015)
Waves structure from all time lowest formation after world Trade Center attack on 11-09-2001
Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Feb-2015)
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Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts
1- Wave-1 beginning at 854.20 on 21-09-2001(all time lowest formation after world trade center attack on 11-09-2001) .
2- Wave-1 completion and Wave-2 beginning at 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(15 Years highest formation)
3- Wave-2 completion and Wave-3 beginning at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(after 9 months correction completion in 2008)
4- Wave-3 continuation with all time high formations at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015.
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Wave-3 continuation towards following retracement levels:-
[1.382] 7,925(Retracement completed)
[1.414] 8,056(Retracement completed)
[1.500] 8,409(Retracement completed)
[1.618] 8,893(Retracement completed)
[1.764] 9,493
[1.886] 9,994
[2.000] 10,462
[2.236] 11,430
[2.618] 12,998
[3.140] 15,141
[3.618] 17,103
On Long Charts above retracement levels of on going Wave-3 are very much possible in the coming 5 years of our honorable P.M. Narendra Modi and its beginning will be after Union Budget-2015.
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-1 beginning after correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014
2- Wave-1 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015
3- Wave-2 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015
7- Last 4 sessions sideways trading between 8793-8913
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All Trends are up and life time high formations at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015. Wave-5 continuation with following immediate supports and resistances:-
1- Supports between 8816-8853
2- Supports between 8795-8838
3- Supports between 8736-8751
4- Supports between 8595-8615
5- Supports between 8554-8574
6- Supports between 8475-8505
7- Resistances between 8880-8894
8- Resistances between 8918-8936
Last 4 sessions sideways trading between 8793-8913 and finally sustaining beyond this range will be first strong signal of next trend and confirmation will sustaining beyond on going Wave-5(8470-8996)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 16 to Feb 20,2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling between 8840-8870 on 16-02-2015
2- Selling between 8850-8861 on 18-02-2015
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 18-02-2015
4- Selling between 8883-8894 on 18-02-2015
5- Selling between 8880-8901 on 19-02-2015
6- Consolidation between 8795-8838 on 19-02-2015
7- Consolidation between 8816-8853 on 20-02-2015
8- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 20-02-2015
9- 4 Sessions actual trading between 8793-8913
Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Last 4 sessions trading with both higher levels selling and lower levels buying therefore Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves and firstly has to prepare within or near about last 4 sessions range(8793-8913) as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will be first strong signal of next big moves.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Wave-5 is on but Short Term Oscillators are overbought therefore last 4 sessions sideways markets for its cooling down. Both Feb. Derivative expiry and Union Budget in next week and sentiments will remain boiling as well as market will prepare and form positions for post Budget big moves. Although post Budget big moves will be decided from coming 2/3 sessions intraday charts patterns formations but expected that finally up moves will be seen in uncharted region after follow up consolidation in the coming sessions. Although Nifty closed in Red and lowest of the day after last more than 1 hour down moves but consolidation patterns formations were also seen therefore rally continuation hopes are alive.
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793 but until Nifty will not sustain below it till then View will not be Bearish because many time Supports are broken down under consolidation process. As resistances above previous week closing are not strong and as such selling patterns also have not developed yet to say for any deeper correction therefore Indian markets are well poised for Post Budget rally after high volatility and panic bottoms formations.
Finally Post Budget Rally will be seen after follow up consolidations.
-------------------------------------9401.50 is Maximum Target of on Going Wave-5 of Nifty
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 16 to Feb 20,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015
Waves Structure of Wave-v of Wave-3
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
4- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
5- Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 8470-8996 with following supports and resistances:-
1- Supports between 8595-8615
2- Supports between 8554-8574
3- Supports between 8475-8505
4- Resistances between 8820-8852
5- Resistances between 8918-8936
Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015. Nifty tested above mentioned 1st resistance on 13-02-2015 but could not sustain and closed just below it. As resistances are lying up to 8936 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for sustaning above it and once sustaining above 8936 will mean strong possibility of fresh rally in uncharted territory after new life time high formations. Calculation of targets above 8996 are as follows:-
As per Elliot Wave theory:-
"Wave-3 of any degree should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5 of same degree"
Wave-5 started from 8470.50 and it can not gain more than 931 points because Wave-3 gained 931 Points therefore target of on going Wave-5 will be less than 9401.50 and its calculations are as follows:-
1- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 gained 931 points(8996-8065)
2- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completed at 8470.50
3- Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started from 8470.50
4- As Elliot Wave theory says that Wave-5 can not gain more than more than Wave-3 therefore Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 can gain maximum 931 points and its:-
Maximum target of Nifty will be:less than 9401.50(8470.50+931)
Retracement Levels in uncharted zone:-
[1.130] 9117
[1.236] 9215
[1.270] 9247
[1.382] 9351(Crucial levels)
[1.500] 9461(Crucial levels)
Maximum target of on going Wave of Nifty is at 9401.50 which lies exactly between 1.382% and 1.5% which are crucial retracement levels therefore high possibility of on going Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion between 9351-9461
Short Term Trend is sideways between 8470-8996 and finally sustaining beyond this range next trend. Although supports st lower levels within this range but resistances are also lying at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for crossing and sustaining above mentioned resistances.
Expected that finally rally will remain continued in the uncharted zone towards 9401.50
-------------------------------------13 Months correction after Obama visit in 2010 but 13 Sessions correction in 2015
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 09 to Feb 13,2015)
13 Months Correction after Obama visit in Nov 2010
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Rally beginning after 2008 correction completion)
2- President Obama's visit between 6-11-2010 and 9-11-2010 and correction beginning after Rally completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 13 Months correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
Correction started after Obama visit in Jan 2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Rally continuation from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
2- President Obama's visit between 25-01-2015 and 27-01-2015 and correction beginning after Rally completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
3- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8645.55 on 06-02-2015
Waves Structure of on going Wave
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
7- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
8- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
9- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8645.55 on 06-02-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 09 to Feb 13,2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 8 Sessions intraday charts
1- 8 Sessions Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 8645-8726
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Certainly 13 months correction after Obama's visit to India in 2010 and Correction again started after 2015 visit also.. 2010 correction lasted 13 months and 2015 correction is being seen for the last 6 sessions. As high expectations from Obama visits and sentiment turned heated therefore correction started for cooling down but difference between 2010 and 2015 is that there was as such no big agreements in 2010 while big deals and most successful visit in 2015.
As 2010 correction started after 5 waves completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010 therefore it corrected whole that rally which 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 but at present Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation and its Wave-5 is still left which should move above Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8996.60)
Strong supports were lying at 8695 and it has been broken down on 06-02-2015 but its broken down technical confirmations is still left through:-
1- 3% down moves or
3- 3 sessions down closing.
As Intraday charts patterns of last 8 sessions are showing consolidation pattern of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and only minor selling patterns are seen as well as consolidation pattern of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel was seen on 06-02-2015 therefore expected that;-
1- Nifty will not sustain below 8695
2- Correction will complete near about 8695
3- Deeper correction will not be seen.
4- Fresh rally towards new life time high will start in next week
Although after Obama visit 2010 Correction remained continued for 13 months but in 2015 correction will complete within 13 sessions.
-------------------------------------8695 Will decide Depth of Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 02 to Feb 06,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)
3- Wave-2(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-v of Wave-3 started after correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014
2- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,996.60 on 30-01-2015
3- 143.45(1.60%) correction on 30-01-2015 with Bearish Engulfing Candle formation
Conclusions from EOD charts analysis
All trends are up and Bullish rally is very much on and new life time high formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015 but immediate after that 1.60% correction was seen which will be understood intraday/Very Short Term correction. Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation and this wave will be correction after Short Term correction confirmation. Wave-v of Wave-3 started from 7961.35 and correction started after high formation at 8,996.60,Fibonacci retracement levels of this Wave are as follows:-
[0.130] 8,862.0200(Done)
[0.236] 8,752.2800
[0.270] 8,717.0800
[0.382] 8,601.1300
[0.500] 8,478.9800
[0.618] 8,356.8200
[0.707] 8,264.6800
[0.764] 8,205.6700
[0.786] 8,182.8900
[0.886] 8,079.3700
Bearish Engulfing Candle formation on 30-01-2015 which signifies that the uptrend has been hurt and the bears may be gaining strength. Next supports are as follows:-
1- Supports between 8796-8815
2- Gap support between 8775-8795
3- Supports between 8727-8755
4- Supports between 8695-8720
As Short Term Oscillators were overbought after strong rally in last 10 sessions and sentiment turned heated after Dow Jones 225 points rally on 29-01-2015 therefore intraday correction was seen on 30-01-2015 for cooling down. As Bearish Engulfing Candle formation which closed at 5 sessions lowest after 5 sessions lowest formation therefore view is cautious and firstly sustaining beyond lowest of above supports will decide deeper correction beginning below(8695) or correction completion above(8695).
-------------------------------------
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 27 to Jan 30,2015)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (23-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(15 Years high formation)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
3- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010(Wave-1 completion and Corrective Wave-2 beginning)
4- Wave-1 gained 4085.75 points.
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011( 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
6- Wave-3 continuation(35 Months rally with recent top formation at 8,866.40 on 23-01-2015)
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Wave-3 is on and no signal of its completion yet therefore its continuation is expected.
Wave-1 started from 2252 and completed at 6338. Fibonacci retracements levels of this wave are as follows:-
[1.130] 6,869 (Done)
[1.236] 7,302 (Done)
[1.270] 7,441 (Done)
[1.382] 7,898 (Done)
[1.414] 8,029 (Done)
[1.500] 8,381 (Done)
[1.618] 8,863 (Done on 23-01-2015)
[1.764] 9,459
[1.886] 9,958
[2.000] 10,424
[2.236] 11,388
[2.618] 12,949
[3.140] 15,082
[3.618] 17,035
[4.236] 19,564
(Although not easy to accept or imagine also but above higher levels will be seen in coming years)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and correction beginning.
2- Correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and correction beginning.
3- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in 28 Sessions Correction
4- 'Pennant Pattern' broken out on 15-01-2015 after RBI Repo Rates cut
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Correction in 'Pennant Pattern' started after Wave-5 completion which completed on 15-01-2015 after RBI Repo Rates cut and forcefully broken out as well as sustained above it.
Fibonacci retracements levels of 'Pennant Pattern'(7961-8626) are as follows:-
[1.130] 8,712 (Done)
[1.236] 8,782 (Done)
[1.270] 8,805 (Done)
[1.382] 8,880
[1.414] 8,901
[1.500] 8,958
[1.618] 9,036
[1.764] 9,134
[1.886] 9,215
[2.000] 9,291
[2.236] 9,447
[2.618] 9,701
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 8848-8865(Immediate Resistances)
2- Buying between 8796-8815(Immediate Supports)
3- Higher bottom formations
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Up moves with intraday correction
6- Whole day actual trading between 8796-8865
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly higher levels selling but lower levels buying was also seen with following consolidation patterns:-
1- Higher bottom formations
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves with intraday correction
As sufficient consolidation was also seen therefore intraday charts are suggesting that rally continuation expectation are alive despite first hour higher levels selling.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
'Pennant Pattern' completed 1.270%(8805) retracement and may face some resistance at 1.382%(8880) because some selling was seen just below it last Friday. 1.618% retracement(8,863) has been completed on 23-01-2015 and Nifty slipped as well as closed below it last Friday but consolidation was also seen at lower levels therefore rally continuation hopes are still alive but follow up consolidation is firstly required.
Fibonacci numbers are as follows:-
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233,...
Wave-2 completed its correction exactly in 13 Months on 20-12-2011 at 4531.15 and impulsive Wave-3 is on for the last 35 months. As Fibonacci number of 34 is crossed therefore Wave-3 continuation hopes have emerged till 55 months means next 20 months.
All trends are up,Indian markets are most Bullish and fresh rally is on after correction completion in 'Pennant Pattern'formations. Until complete selling patterns will not develop on EOD Charts till then decisive down moves or any big correction will not be considered. As Oscillators are overbought and sentiment is heated therefore minor,intraday or 1/2 sessions correction may be seen for cooling down of sentiment but finally rally is still expected.
Next most crucial levels are follows:-
1- 1.618%(8863) of Wave-3
2- 1.382%(8880) retracement of 'Pennant Pattern'
As some selling was seen just below 8863 last Friday therefore follow consolidation is firstly required and once sustaining above 8880 will mean fresh rally towards and above those higher levels which have been updated above because that will mean Wave-3 continuation up to next 20 months also.
Expected that finally Nifty will sustain above 8880 and impulsive Wave-3 will remain continued till next 20 months.
-------------------------------------
8550 is most crucial level-------------------------------------
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 06 to Jan 09,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and 'ABC' correction beginning.
2- Wave'A' completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' beginning
3- Wave'a' of Wave'B' completion at 8364.75 on 23-12-2014
4- Wave'B' of Wave'B' completion at 8147.95 on 26-12-2014
5- Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-05-2015
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Wave'A' of 'ABC' correction begun after Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 which completed at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave'B' started in "abc" mode. Now Wave'c' of Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8445.60 on 05-05-2015.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels of Wave'B' are as follows(7961-8626):-
13.0%-8047
23.6%-8117
27.0%-8140
38.2%-8215
50.0%-8293
61.8%-8371
70.7%-8431
76.4%-8469
78.6%-8483
88.6%-8550
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Wave'a' of Wave'B' gained 403 points(8364-7961)
Wave'B' of Wave'B' completed at 8147 and Wave'c' of Wave'B' started.
If Wave'c' of Wave'B' gains 100% points of Wave'a' of Wave'B' then its maximum target will be at 8550(8147+403)
8550 becomes most crucial level because 88.6% Retracement Level is also exactly at 8550.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Jan-2015):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 8430-8445
2- Selling between 8405-8515
3- Support between 8383-8387
4- Support between 8364-8375
5- Whole day actual trading between 8364-8445
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
It was a volatile day today with higher levels selling and lower levels buying as well therefore firstly sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched for first strong signal of next decisive moves commencement and the continuation/completion of Wave'c' of Wave'B'.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Expected that Wave'c' of Wave'B' will complete between 8431-8550 and Wave'c' will begin towards new lows below 7961. Next resistances above today highest are between 8510-8614 and 8550 is lying within it therefore Nifty will not easily cross this resistance range.
Correction Continuation Possibility below 7961.35
(Dec 22 to Dec 26,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Dec-2014):-
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1- 5933.30 on 04-02-2014(Rally beginning after correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6869.85 on 25-04-2014)
3- Wave-2(6638.55 on 08-05-2014)
4- Wave-3(8180.20 on 08-09-2014)
5- Wave-4(7723.85 on 17-10-2014)
6- Wave-5(8626.95 on 04-12-2014) and 'ABC' correction beginning.
7- Wave'A' completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2013
8- Wave'B' continuation with its recent top formation at 8263.45 on 19-12-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
we told also following line on 12-05-2014 in Minimum target of Nifty at 8616.90:-
Nifty is well set for rally towards minimum target at 8616.90.
8616.90 was told 6 months before and Nifty made intraday highest at 8617 on 28-11-2014 as well as immediately corrected 666 points after forming life time high formation at 8626.95.
When Nifty formed all time high at 8616.90 on 04-12-2014 then at the top of rally we posted following bearish Outlook at 08:02 AM on 05-12-2014 in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(05-12-2014):-
emergence of correction possibility which may be minimum Short Term to Intermediate term
As was told 100% same happened and Nifty corrected 666 points after ours above prediction.
Now Wave'B' of 'ABC' correction is on after 10 months strong 2693 points strong rally which started from 5933.30 on 04-02-2014 and ended after many times new life time high formation at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and Corrective Wave'A' begun which completed at 7961.35 on 17-12-2013.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Dec-2014):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling(immediate Resistance) between 8243-8263
2- Whole day actual trading between 8209-8263
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Gap up opening after strong Global cues but higher levels sliing patterns were formation were also seen therefore down moves below day's lowest(8209) are expected. As good selling seen therefore until complete consolidation will not be seen till then up moves above day's highest(8263) will not be seen.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
'ABC' correction is confirm and if complete consolidation happens after completion of Wave'C' only then correction completion will be considered otherwise 5 Waves correction(1,2,3,4,5) will be seen in the coming weeks/months. As good selling on 19-12-2014 therefore if follow up selling develops in the beginning of next week then fresh down moves will be seen below the bottom of Wave'A'(7961.35) which will mean Wave'c' beginning after the completion of Wave'B'.
Correction is on and its continuation is expected in the beginning of next week because good selling at higher levels last Friday as well as high possibility of down moves below 7961.35 after completion of Wave'B' at 8263.45 on 19-12-2013.