Pull back rally continuation towards Next Resistances

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 22 to Jun 26,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015 

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015 
8- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) broken out on 19-06-2015

Last 12 sessions intraday charts Analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 04 to Jun 19,2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 12 Sessions intraday charts

1- 11 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8191 with lower levels consolidations.
2- Gap up opening on 19-06-2015
3- 12 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8250 

Conclusions from 12 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

11 Sessions actual trading between 7941-8191 with lower levels good consolidations and after that this range was broken out forcefully on 19-06-2015 as well as closed with sufficient gains therefore emergence of fresh and strong rally possibilities above 11 Sessions highest(8191) 

Intra Day Chart Analysis(19-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8196-8214 
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Good intraday correction
5- Whole day actual trading between 8196-8251

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly gap up opening and after that good consolidation as well as Down moves were also seen in Bullish Falling Channel at higher levels in first 4 hours therefore up moves started from lower levels of the day. As up moves in Bearish Rising Channel were also seen up to higher levels of the day therefore sharp intraday correction was seen and Nifty has prepared for fresh up moves above the highest(8251) of the day.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) broken out on 19-06-2015 and its turning up confirmation is required through sustaining above 8196

5 Waves correction started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and its 5th wave recent bottom formation at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015,after that Pull Back Rally begun which formed recent top at 8250.80 on 19-06-2015. As 11 Sessions trading range(7941-8191) broken out forcefully and Nifty traded whole day above it as well as Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) therefore emergence of Long Term Trend turning up indications. 

Wave-1 started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 and its 5th wave completed on 04-03-2015 at 9119.20 and 5 Waves correction begun as well as its 5th Wave correction completion indications after 11 sessions range and 200 Day EMA break out in previous week. Once sustaining above 200 Day EMA(today at 8196) will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmations and resultant strong rally possibility towards following next resistances:- 

1- Resistances between 8355-8400
2- Resistances between 8440-8486(strong)

As Intermediate Term Trend will be up above 8505 therefore once sustaining above 2nd resistance will mean sustaining above 8505 confirmations also and then rally above all time highest(9119.20) will be seen after all trends turning up and 5 waves correction completion confirmations.

Expected that on going Pull back rally will remain continued towards above mentioned 2nd resistance(8440) in next week and we are seeing possibility of rally above 8505 also.

8195 will be Next Big Trend Decider

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 55 Points sharp jump towards 8146 in first 15 minutes.
2- Whole day up moves in Rising Channel with some selling patterns but sufficient intraday corrections also within channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8102-8186

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally above today highest(8136.85) after follow up consolidations":-

finally rally above today highest(8,136.85) is still expected in the coming sessions

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty crossed 8,136.85 in first 9 minutes as well as sharply jumped 55 points towards 8146 within first 15 minutes

More than 6 hours continuous up moves in Rising Channel with some selling patterns but sufficient intraday corrections also within channel therefore one sided patterns not formations and valid break out of this channel will decide following next trend:-

1- Upper rising line break out will mean testing of Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8195) and once sustaining above 8195 will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation as well as fresh rally after strong signal of on going correction completion.
2- Lower rising line break down will mean down moves towards the bottom(7940.30) of on going correction after on going Pull Back Rally termination.

At present Pull Back Rally continuation with today highest at 9186 and next resistance is at 8192 as well as Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is just above it at 8195. Once sustaining above 8195 will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and resultant strong rally possibility towards next resistances at 8360. If Nifty fails to sustain above 8192 and after that lower line of today Rising Channel broken down also then same Bearish moves will be seen which have already been updated above.

As Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8195) will decide next Big moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Rally above today highest(8136.85) after follow up consolidations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8048-8077
2- Selling between 8106-8136
3- Whole day actual trading between 8048-8136

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

It was expected that Nifty will prepare today for post FOMC decisive moves between and near about 7953-8061 and forceful moves beyond 7941-8057 will be seen after FOMC announcements on 18th June but good up moves were seen after first 4 hours lower levels consolidation today. 

As more than 24 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 4 sessions with lower levels good consolidation therefore following conclusive moves were updated yesterday in "17th June will be Post FOMC forceful Moves preparation Day":-

if selling does not develop tomorrow then strong rally will begin on the 18th June despite whatsoever announcements from FOMC on 17th night.

Rally was expected on 18th June after FOMC but it was seen today and finally technical positions of last 5 sessions have developed as follows:-

1- Consolidation between 7941-8006 from 11-06-2015 to 16-06-2015
2- Consolidation between 8048-8077 on 17-06-2015
3- Selling between 8106-8136 on 17-06-2015

As good consolidation at lower levels in last 5 sessions and selling also at higher levels today therefore consolidation is firstly required between and near about today trading range(8048-8136) but finally rally above today highest(8,136.85) is still expected in the coming sessions despite following negative developments:-

1- FII selling by 940.91 Cr in Indian markets today 
2- All European markets closing in Red today.
3- US markets trading in negative zone at this moment.

17th June will be Post FOMC forceful Moves preparation Day 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 7953-7996(Immediate Supports)
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7953-8061

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Cautiously Bullish view requires follow up consolidation within 7941-8057":-

As good consolidation between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore moves above 8057 are expected but view is cautious because Bearish Indian markets and fresh up moves confirmation will be after follow up consolidation within 7941-8057 tomorrow. 

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty moved above 8057 and intraday highest formation at 8061.85 today. 

Although more than 4 hours lower levels consolidation today but last hours up moves were in  Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up consolidation and sustaining above 8057 is must for next decisive up moves.

As FOMC meet on 16th and 17th June therefore decisive moves are expected after its announcements on 18th June and Nifty will prepare for post FOMC decisive moves between and near about 7953-8061 tomorrow.

More than 24 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 4 sessions with lower levels good consolidation and if selling does not develop tomorrow then strong rally will begin on the 18th June despite whatsoever announcements from FOMC on 17th night.

It should also be kept in mind that forceful moves beyond 7941-8057 may be seen on 18th June and market will prepare for those moves tomorrow. Let market prepare for post FOMC trend and decisive moves then will be updated from intraday charts patterns formations in the same manner as being done for the last more than 5 years. 

Cautiously Bullish view requires follow up consolidation within 7941-8057

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jun-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 90 Points bounce in first 30 minutes
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation between 7980-8006(Immediate Supports)
4- Whole day actual trading between 7945-8057

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told today at 10:36 AM in "Next Immediate Decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051":-

Next resistances are between 8038-8051 and once valid break out of this range will mean strong possibility of more than 1% up moves and next immediate decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051

As resistances between 8038-8051 therefore Nifty could not sustain above it and slipped below 8038 after intraday highest formation at 8057.70.

Although Nifty slipped 50 points in last hours from intraday higher levels but as such selling patterns were not seen and on the other hand consolidation patterns were also seen therefore emergence of up moves expectations in the coming sessions. 

As all trends are down and Nifty is in the grip of Bears therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above today highest and sharp up moves will be seen above 8188.

More than 17 hours trading between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore firstly valid break out of this range should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive moves:-

1- Above 8057 will mean up moves towards 8188.
2- Below 7941 will mean Correction Continuation towards 7642.30.

As good consolidation between 7941-8057 in last 3 sessions therefore moves above 8057 are expected but view is cautious because Bearish Indian markets and fresh up moves confirmation will be after follow up consolidation within 7941-8057 tomorrow. 

Next Immediate Decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051

Post-open Outlook(15-06-2015)

Nifty- First 45 Minutes Intra Day Chart(15-Jun-2015)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Although Dow Jones closed 140 points down and all the European markets also closed 0.90% to 1.40% down last Friday but we told following line on 13-06-2015 in "Firstly Bounce Back & finally Correction Continuation towards 7642.30" 

1- finally up moves are expected in the beginning of next week despite all European and US markets more than .62% down closing last Friday
2- As Short Term Oscillators are oversold and intraday consolidation patterns formations also on 12-06-2015 therefore a bounce back will be considered in the beginning of next week
3- Firstly bounce back

As was told on 13-06-2015 same happened today and Nifty bounced 90 points from lower levels and traded 51 points up in first 30 minutes today despite all the Asian markets are trading down from .50% to 1.50% today.

Next resistances are between 8038-8051 and once valid break out of this range will mean strong possibility of more than 1% up moves and next immediate decisive moves will be decided by 7941-8051.