Just watch next 2 levels for the life of on going correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 02 to Mar 06,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective  Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(5th Wave structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 after Wave-4 completion
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 completion at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-ii beginning
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10637.10 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion after life time top formations at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and ABC correction beginning
5- Wave-A completion at 11614.50 on 03-02-2020
6- Wave-B completion at 12246.70 on 14-02-2020
7- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Wave-iii of Wave-5 structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10637.10 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion after life time top formations at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and ABC correction beginning
3- Wave-A completion at 11614.50 on 03-02-2020
4- Wave-B completion at 12246.70 on 14-02-2020
5- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure) 

Short and Intermediate Term Trends were already down and Long Term Trend has turned down on 28-02-2020 after forceful breaking down of its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11687.20) but confirmation is required also through sustaining below it.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(5th Wave structure) 

Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion after life time top formations at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and now Wave-C of its ABC correction correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020 and no indication of its completion yet.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Wave-iii of Wave-5 structure) 

Wave-iii of Wave-5 begun from 10637.10 on 23-08-2019 and and now its corrective Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020. As per Wave theory on going Wave-C correction should not slip below the beginning levels of Wave-iii of Wave-5(10637.10) otherwise whole Waves structure will be recounted which should be firstly watched in next week for the validity of Wave-iii of Wave-5 and life of ongoing correction.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

When Nifty was trading above 12100 then following conclusive line was told in the Weekly Outlook of Feb 17 to Feb 21,2020 with its topic name of "Strong signals of deeper correction beginning from next week"

correction is expected in next week which may be deeper also.

When Nifty was trading above 12000 then following conclusive line was told in the Weekly Outlook of Feb 24 to Feb 28,2020 with its topic name of "Correction continuation towards and below next supports"

First strong signal of deeper correction beginning  will be after sustaining below 11909 and that will mean correction continuation towards and below 11615/11460.70 also which will be seen in the coming weeks/months.

As was told in both previous weekly outlooks 100% same happened and Nifty slipped more than 800 points after our above Outlooks and formed lowest at 11175.05 on 28-02-2020.

Next supports below last Friday lowest are between 11100-11144 which should be firstly watched in the coming week because once sustaining above it will mean strong signal of Wave-C correction completion because as per Waves structure Nifty should not slip below 10637.10 and once its happening will mean first signal of fresh rally beginning for moves above life time highest(12430.50).

As Short Term indicators have turned oversold therefore a sharp Pull Back Rally or "V Shaped recovery" may be seen any day and its confirmation will be after sustaining above next supports range(11100-11144). 

Although correction is very much on and no indication of its completion yet but following 2 levels should be firstly watched in next week for the life of on going correction and its its importance has already been described above:-

1- 11100-11144
2- 10637.10

Next target of Nifty at 11217

Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2020)

As most Asian markets are more than 2% down after more than 4% negative closing of most US Indices therefore crashing like situation has been developed in all the Global markets hence  gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets also.

50.0% Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(10004-12430) on Nifty is at 11217 and technically this level should be watched for next target of on going correction after Long Term Trend turning down confirnation because forceful break down of its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11687.60) will be seen after huge gap down opening of Indian markets today.

Sharp Pull Back Rally If no big crash in Asian markets 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-02-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 11537-11663

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 15-02-2020 in "Strong signals of deeper correction beginning from next week":-

strong signal of Wave-C formation in next week for slipping below the bottom of Wave-A(11614.50)

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty slipped below 11614.50 today as well as today lowest was at 11536.70

Nifty crashed 141 points in first 1 hour and 15 minutes after weak opening but these Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and some consolidation developed therefore whole day up moves were seen and today closing was at the higher levels of the day. As Up moves in last 5 hours were in Bearish Rising Channels also therefore some profit booking also can not be ruled out. 

It was only a volatile day today with lower levels some supports and higher levels some selling also therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within today trading range(11537-11663) tomorrow and prepare for next moves.

Nifty again closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11687.60) and once sustaining below it will mean more deep correction but Short Term indicators have turned oversold therefore a sharp Pull Back Rally is very much due which may be seen any day and its confirmation will be after sustaining above today highest(11663). If no big crash in Asian markets tomorrow only then sharp Pull Back Rally will be seen after some consolidation within and near about today trading range.

Firstly watch 200-Day SMA for next big moves 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-02-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- High volatility in last 4 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 11640-11783

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As crashing like situation developed in all the Asian markets after more than 800 points Dow Jones fall yesterday therefore sentiment was much depressed hence huge gap down opening of Indian markets.

Although some consolidation was seen through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in first 2 hours but after that high volatility in last 4 hours with new intraday highest and lowest formations therefore no final view can be formed only from intraday patterns formations because technical positions reverses sharply during such high volatility.

3rd Supports range between 11615-11705 was updated 3 times in following outlooks;-

1- On 15-02-2020 in "Strong signals of deeper correction beginning from next week"
2- On 21-02-2020 in "Correction continuation towards and below next supports"
3- On 25-02-2020 in "Correction continuation expectations amid intraday volatility"

(Just click above topic links and see on yours own)

Above topics names since 15-02-2020 are clearly telling that we are continuously telling only and only for Correction which is being seen. We updated 3rd and last supports between 11615-11705 and Nifty closed within it at 11678.50 today.

Nifty tested and closed below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11685.90) today and finally it will confirm next big moves of Indian markets because it will decide Long Term Trend and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions.

Correction continuation expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-02-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 11780-11883

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Whole day Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is an indication of consolidation development but good selling was also seen through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel which was at that time when Modi ji and Trump meeting was being held and sentiment was boiling therefore Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day.

As whole day intraday volatility and only up and down moves were seen amid US-India trade agreement expectations therefore this news based selling also cant not be ruled out. Any final coclusion can not be drawn only from today intraday charts patterns formations because today whole day trading was news affected. 

Correction is very much on and until complete consolidation will not develop till then decisive up moves will not be seen and once sustaining below today lowest will mean correction continuation towards and below 11615/11460.70 which is expected also. 

Correction continuation expectations amid intraday volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-02-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Feb-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 140 Points down in first 2 minutes
2- 5 Hours selling between 11915-11977(Immediate Resistances)
3- More than 100 points fall in last 2 hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 11814-11977

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 21-02-2020 in "Correction continuation towards and below next supports":-

As more than 4 hours selling last Thursday therefore more down moves are expected in next week towards following supports:-

1- 12043-12063 
2- 11909-11948
3- 11615-11705

First strong signal of deeper correction beginning  will be after sustaining below 11909 and that will mean correction continuation towards and below 11615/11460.70 also which will be seen in the coming weeks/months.

As firstly 5 hours selling between 11915-11977 after 140 Points down in first 2 minutes therefore Nifty slipped and closed below 2nd supports range hence strong signal of deeper correction beginning has been generated which has further opened the doors for correction continuation towards and below 11615/11460.70 also.

It may be a volatile day tomorrow because of Indian-US business agreements in Trump visit tomorrow and Very Short Term Indicators have also turned oversold but still correction continuation is expected and until Nifty will not sustained above 11977 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen.