More up moves towards next resistances if coronavirus crisis situation remains normal

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 16 to Mar 20,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves"  beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020
8- Indications of Wave-B formations after 1604.25 points sharp recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

4 Years rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 completed at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 after 5 waves completion and its 'ABC" Correction correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020. As 1604.25 points sharp recovery from  8555.15 on 13-03-2020 therefore indications of Wave-B formations after Wave-A completion.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Corrective Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves"  beginning
3- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation in Rising Channel
4- Rising Channel broken down forcefully on 06-03-2020
5- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020
6- Indications of Wave-B formations after 1604.25 sharp recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Corrective Waves structure)

As Nifty moves up 1604.25 points and recovered from 8555.15 to 11159.40 on 13-03-2020 in just 1 sessions therefore strong indications of Wave-A completion and Wave-B formations to move towards the top of Wave-5(12430.50).  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of whole waves structure(6825 to 12430):-

1- 13.0%- 11701 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 11107 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 10916 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 10288 (Retraced)
5- 50.0%- 9627  (Retraced)
6- 61.8%- 8966  (Retraced)
7- 70.7%- 8467
8- 76.4%- 8147
9- 78.6%- 8024
10-88.6%- 7463 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Retracement of whole that rally is very much on which started from 6825 and completed at 12430,its 61.8% retracement has been completed and no confirmation of this retracement completion.  

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend is down but indication of its turning up after strong recovery from lower levels and 1604.25 points strong recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020.

As Nifty slipped below the bottom of Wave-5(9951.90) on 13-03-2020 therefore it is another confirmation of Bear market and more down moves will be seen below 9951.90 in the coming weeks/months after Wave-C formation despite 1604.25 points strong recovery here on 13-03-2020

Earthquake like situation due to coronavirus crisis all around in all the Global markets and no one knows when situation will become normal and how much this problem will deepen therefore cautious approach is required. As eruption of this problem therefore corrective Wave-A was extremely fast and it seems that Wave-A has completed Price-wise correction  8555.15 on 13-03-2020 and signals of Wave-B formation also but it is expected that it may complete correction in Time-wise manner  

If coronavirus crisis does not turn worse and situation remains normal then more up moves will be seen towards following next resistances:-

1- 10527-10590
2- 10884-11005
3- 11260-11400

Be cautious amid coronavirus crisis panic led high volatility

Nifty-Market Analysis(13-03-2020)

As coronavirus crisis deepens and all the Global markets are crashing as well as SGX Nifty has traded more than 900 points down therefore intraday charts analysis of today is not being updated because it has no significance in such high depressing situation.

Earthquake like situation all around in all the Global markets and no one knows when situation will become normal. It must be kept in mind that more than 100 points intraday volatility of Nifty will be normal feature and decisive up moves will be seen minimum after 1/2 sessions intrday consolidation patterns formation and "V shaped recovery may also be seen any day" but all these possibility will be according to coronavirus news and after some positive developments regarding this.

Certainly huge panic and market reverse in such situation also,let market to get support,consolidate or sharply recover more than 100 points from lower levels then reversal/Pull Back rally will be considered but be cautious because volatility will remain high.

9951 will confirm Bear market amid all Global markets crashed after WHO declaration coronavirus a pandemic 

Pre-open Outlook(12-03-2020)

As WHO declared the worldwide outbreak of the new coronavirus a pandemic late night yesterday therefore firstly US markets crashed yesterday and all the Asian markets are in deep Red today morning therefore sentiment is most depressed and resultant deeper gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets also. 

Although whole day intraday consolidation yesterday and good consolidation between 10295-10392 on 09-03-2020 also but no level will be saved today in such huge crash in all Global markets and now 9951 should be watched because it will confirm Indian markets moving into Bearish phase.

Pull back rally above today highest expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with downward corrections
2- All the down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 10374-10545

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing after whole day sideways trading between 10374-10545 but today intraday charts are suggesting whole day consolidation patterns formations through Up moves with downward corrections and all the down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore Pull back rally above today highest(10,545.10) is expected in the coming sessions despite Dow Jones now trading more than 900 points down and SGX Nifty below 10365.

Immediate Resistances between 10527-10590 were updated yesterday in "Firstly watch immediate good supports" and once sustaining above 10590 will mean strong rally towards mext resistances above 10900.

Firstly watch immediate good supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 430 Points down in first half hour
2- More than 2 hours selling between 10527-10590(Immediate Resistances)
3- 200 Points fall in Mid-session
4- Consolidation between 10295-10392(Immediate Supports)
5- Up moves in last 2 hours
6- Whole day actual trading between 10295-10751

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Global markets were crashing therefore slipping after huge gap down opening and loosing 430 Points in first half hour. Although 200 Points fall in Mid-session after more than 2 hours selling between 10527-10590 but up moves were seen in last 2 hours after lower levels consolidation between 10295-10392. 

As last 2 hours up moves started exactly after more than 7% down opening of most European markets(after 01:30 PM) and some consolidation was also seen at lower levels just before it between 10295-10392 therefore it will be understood that Indian markets out performed after getting good supports and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for stopping/continuation of on going correction amid Corona Virus news led volatile Global markets. Let correction stop and Nifty to consolidate near about 10295-10392 then more decisive up moves will be considered and will be seen as well.