Sustaining beyond 2 levels will confirm

 next bigger downward moves 

beginning or not

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 14 to Oct 18,2024)

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis

(Waves Structure,Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-Weekly Chart (11-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 02-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 24-03-2023.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023. 

5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 27-10-2023

6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024.

7- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024.

8- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.

9- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 42.58 & %D(3)- 68.60.

10- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.

11- MACD(26,12)- 994.34 & EXP(9)- 1123.65 & Divergence- -129.31

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

(Waves structure,Stochastic & MACD)

Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and from this level impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started. Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 02-12-2022 and from this level Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 24-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 begun from this level. 

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and from this level corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 18837.80 on 27-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level. Now Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024. Although no confirmation of its completion yet on Weekly charts but Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024 and no confirmation of its completion also on Weekly charts. 

Technical positions of Intermediate Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that strong signals of Intermediate Term beginning has been generated and will be seen in the coming weeek/weeks.

2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore strong indications of on going correction continuation after Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmations.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

 

1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024.

3- Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 has gained 7439.5 points(39.49%) in the last almost 1 year.

4- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024.

5- Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 has corrected 1583 points in the last 10 sessions.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 which started from 18837.80 is now in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 after gaining 7439.5 points and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As now Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 after loosing 1583 points and no indication of its completion also therefore:- 

1- Firstly On going correction completion confirmations is required for any decisive upward move beginning confirmations.

2- Once sustaining below on going correction bottom(24694.30) will mean deeper correction beginning confirmations. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with its Neckline at 24753

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.

3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 39.63 & %D(3)- 30.87.

4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.

5- MACD(26,12)- -233.19 & EXP(9)- 188.63 & Divergence- -421.82

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern has been developed on EOD charts and its Neckline is at 24753. Although Nifty slipped below its Neckline but closed above it at 24765.8 on 07-10-2024 after intraday bottom formations below it at 24694.30. As Nifty traded just above its Neckline in the last 4 sessions of previous week between 24757-25234 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for next decisive bigger moves beginning confirmations.      

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is showing more downward moves in the coming week.

2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing more downward moves in the coming week after Short Term Trend turning downward confirmations.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24951

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 25478

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 25026

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24400

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23226

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Although Long Term Trend is confirm up after Nifty trading well above its decider 200-Day SMA but Short Term Trend is confirm down and Intermediate Term Trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its decider 55-Day SMA for the last 6 sessions and closed below it also 4 times. As finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm next Intermediate Term trend formations and resultant next one sided bigger moves beginning therefore firstly it should be watched in the coming week/weeks. 

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.

3- Short Term Trend is down.

Short Term Correction which begun after new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD Charts.

As Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and Intermediate/Short Term indicators are also showing signals of on going correction continuation possibility therefore bigger downward moves can not be ruled out in the coming week and firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched in the coming week for its confirmations:- 

1- Intermediate Term Trend 55-Day SMA which is today at 25026 and it will confirm from next 3 weeks to 3 months long one sided moves.

2- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern Neckline at 24753.

Downward moves expectations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(11-10-2024)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Sharp Upward moves

3- Sharp Downward moves

4- Selling between 25013-25051

5- Whole day actual trading between 24980-25134

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although positive opening but firstly Down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp upward moves were seen after that. As good intraday selling was seen between 25100-25234 yesterday also therefore Nifty could not sustain at higher levels within this range and sharp downward moves were also seen immediately. 

As more than 3 hours fresh selling also developed between 25013-25051 in Mid-Session today and good selling was seen above 25100 yesterday also therefore downward moves below today lowest(24980) and towards 24757 is expected tomorrow.

Firstly some upward moves possibility 

& finally 24757-25234 will confirm

 next bigger moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(10-10-2024)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with downward corrections

2- Selling between 25198-25234

3- Selling between 25122-25157

4- Selling between 25100-25139

5- 192 Points down moves in last 2 hours

6- Some up moves after lower levels minor supports

7- Whole day actual trading between 24948-25234

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly upward moves with downward corrections and Nifty traded 220 points positive also but higher levels selling developed and 2 times follow up selling was also seen after some down moves in mid-session therefore 192 Points downward moves were seen in last 2 hours and Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day. As some up moves after lower levels minor supports in last half hour and good intraday consolidation was seen below today lowest and above 24757 yesterday also therefore firstly some upward moves can not be ruled out tomorrow. 

Immediate resistances are lying between 25100-25234 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 25234 after complete intraday consolidation till then decisive upward moves will not seen. In the same manner complete fresh selling is also required for sustaining below 24757 because good intraday consolidation was seen above it yesterday also. As both consolidation and selling has been seen in last 2 sessions between 24757-25234 therefore Nifty will trade within this range in the coming sessions and prepare for next bigger moves as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm it hence it should also be finally watched in the coming sessions for next bigger moves beginning confirmations.

Watch 25125 amid more upward 

moves expectations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(09-10-2024)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Oct-2024):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with downward corrections

2- Whole day actual trading between 24757-25045

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly some down moves after positive opening but after that whole day up moves were with downward corrections which is a consolidation pattern therefore more upward moves are expected towards neat resistances(25056-25124). As last hours upward moves were due to Haryana BJP victory led heated sentiments and some profit booking also can not be ruled out therefore firstly some consolidation is also required near about today highest and once sustaining above 25124 will mean strong rally beginning therefore it should also be watched in the coming sessions.

As out of station therefore unable 

to post tomorrow(08-10-2024) Outlook.