8365 will trigger Blasting Rally

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 18 to May 22,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Last 15 sessions trading between 7997-8365 
11- Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8190) for the last 11 sessions.

Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in last 15 sessions

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders formations in last 15 sessions
6- Neckline of Inverted Head and Shoulders at 8365

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 12 to May 15,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- 3 Sessions most time trading trading range with Mixed Patterns between 8090-8254 from 12th May to 14th May 2015
2- Most time trading above the highs of last 3 sessions(8254) on 15-05-2015 with consolidation below 8254

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although Mixed Patterns between 8090-8254 in last 3 sessions buy good consolidation below 8254 and closing above it on 15-05-2015 therefore strong indications of fresh rally after valid break out of last 3 sessions range. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8229-8250 
2- Consolidation Patterns between 8247-8255 
3- Minor selling patterns at higher levels.
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8213-8279

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although minor selling at higher levels but good consolidation at lower levels and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels were also seen therefore expected that Nifty will move above day's highest(8279).

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend is sideways and Nifty is hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8190) for the last 11 sessions.

Wave-4 completed and Wave-5 begun at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction started. Corrective Wave-'C' finished at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015 and since then sideways market between 7997-6333. 

Last 15 sessions sideways trading between 7997-8365 and Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8190) for the last 11 sessions which is within 15 sessions range. It means that valid break out of last 15 sessions range will be Long Term Trend confirmation which is sideways within this range. As question of Long Term Trend valid break out confirmation therefore it is confirm that one sided big moves will be seen beyond 7997-8365.

Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 15 sessions and its Neckline is at 8365 which means that strong rally after sustaining above 8365. 42 Sessions correction from  04-03-2015 and 15 sessions Bullish pattern formation is time wise sufficient for correction completion. It should be kept in mind that once valid break out of its Neckline(8365) will mean high possibility of fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after 42 Sessions correction completion.

Nifty traded 3 sessions from 12-05-2015 to 14-05-2015 with both buying and selling between 8090-8254 but this range was broken out and Nifty closed above 8254 on 15-05-2015. As sufficiently good intraday consolidations was also seen therefore expected that 3 sessions broken out will get confirmation in next week and that will mean testing possibility of 15 sessions trading range top and Neckline(8365).

Certainly emergence correction completion strong signals and high possibility fresh rally above 8365 as well as new life time high formation above 9119.20 is also being considered because Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 15 sessions. Firstly sustaining above 8365 should be watched for the beginning of Blasting rally.

Watch 8254 for First Indication of Next Big Moves

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(15-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8157-8189
2- Selling between 8200-8222
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 8138-8236

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Sharp down immediately after opening in following manner today:-

1- 86 Points down in 1st minute.
2- 110 Points down in first 5 minutes.

As firstly crashing like situation and after that whole day up moves therefore today will also be understood highly volatile day like yesterday which means that final conclusions can not be drawn only from intraday patterns formations and confirmation is must through valid break out of crucial levels because technical positions reverses during such high volatility. 

Highly volatile last 2 sessions with mixed Patterns formations in both sessions therefore not clear one sided technical positions formations and firstly valid break out of last 2 sessions trading range(8090-8254) should be watched in the coming sessions for next big trend first strong indication. Last 14 sessions trading between 7997-8365 and it is confirm that big moves are being developed within this range. 

Last 2 sessions trading range(8090-8254) is almost in the middle of last 14 sessions range(7997-8365) and valid break out of 2 sessions range will give strong indication of break out direction of last 14 sessions range therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

As Dow Jones is now trading 180 points up and all the European markets closed in Green and some closed with more than 1% gains therefore if such Bullish sentiment reflects in Asian markets also then gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets and firstly sustaining beyond 8254 should be watched for first indication of next Big Moves. Let Nifty sustain above 8254 then fresh rally will be considered because view is very much cautious after last 2 sessions high volatility and final conclusions will be drawn only after the analysis of intraday patterns of coming sessions.

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook(14-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8215-8254
2- Consolidation between 8090-8136
3- Consolidation between 8204-8244
4- Mixed Patterns between 8204-8254 
5- Whole day high volatility
6- Whole day actual trading between 8090-8254

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 128 points up in 1st hour but higher levels selling and after that 164 points fall was seen in 2nd hour today. As lower levels consolidation therefore 114 points recovery from lower levels and higher levels consolidation patterns were seen in last 2 hours today.

As higher levels mixed Patterns formations between 8204-8254 today therefore firstly valid break out of this range should be watched tomorrow for next trend first strong indication. Whole day high volatility in following manner therefore confirmation is must because technical positions reverses during such high volatility.

Whole day high volatility in following manner today:-

128 Points up in 1st hour
164 Points down in 2nd hour
114 Points up after 01:00 PM

As good consolidations today therefore high possibility of fresh up moves towards the top of last 13 sessions range(8365) but view is cautious and valid break out of 8204-8254 is must because high volatility today.

Bears beaten Bull by 198 Runs with Pace Bowling Attack of GST Bill

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(13-05-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C' recent bottom formation at 7997.15 on 07-05-2015
5- Last 12 sessions trading between 7997-8365
6- Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8189) for the last 8 sessions.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Nifty slipped 77 points in first 4 minutes and 
2- Nifty lost 92 points within first 11 minutes. 
3- Nifty crashed 119 points within first 18 minutes. 
4- Nifty moved down 155 points within first hour.
5- Last more than 5 hours trading with mixed patterns formations between 8116-8186 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As Parliament session was extended for 3 days from 11-05-2015 to 13-05-2015 and it was expected that  Land Acquisition Bill and GST Bill will be passed in the Budget session therefore strong rally was seen on 8th and 11 May but following negative developments were seen in last 2 days:-

1- Land Bill referred to 30-member joint committee
2- GST Bill referring to Select Committee of Rajya Sabha and it got confirmation at 09:08 AM today from following news:-

GST Bill goes to select committee of Rajya Sabha

(Just click above topic link and go through whole news)

Indian markets reacted negative and sharp fall was seen immediately after opening as well as all intraday gains of last 2 sessions neutralised today. 

Certainly corrective Wave-'C' is on but last 12 sessions sideways between 7997-8365 with supports above 7997 and resistances below 8365 therefore expected that Nifty will trade and will prepare for next decisive moves within this range in the next 1/2 sessions and finally break out of these crucial levels will decide next trend. As Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8189) for the last 8 sessions which is also lying between 7997-8365 and valid break out of this range will be confirmation of Long Term Trend also therefore it is confirm that one sided big moves will be seen beyond 7997-8365 after Long Term Trend confirmations.  

Waves structure and detailed analysis have already been updated in previous topics and be prepared for next big Moves after sustaining beyond 7997-8365.

Crucial Levels will decide Next Trend after Sharp Fall Today 

Post-open Outlook(12-05-2015)

Following lines were told yesterday in "Pull Back Rally continuation towards 8431 after follow up consolidation":-

1- follow up consolidation is must
2- some intraday corrections may also be seen

Intraday correction was seen in following manner immediately after opening today:-

1- Nifty slipped 77 points in first 4 minutes and 
2- Nifty lost 92 points within first 11 minutes. 
3- Nifty crashed 119 points within first 18 minutes. 

As possibility of GST Bill referring to standing committee and high nervousness therefore such sharp down moves in Indian market.

Certainly we were also expecting intraday correction today but such sharp was not expected  therefore view is cautious because whole rally of yesterday turned zero in first 18 minutes and emergence of following possibility which was updated on 09-05-2015 in "Pull Back Rally continuation require permission from 8224":- 

If 7th May 2015 started rally terminates below the top of Wave-'C'(8844.40) then 5 Waves correction will be seen and its corrective Wave-5 will moves below the bottom of Wave-'C'(7997.15).

As good supports above 7997 on 07-05-2015 and previous strong resistances below 8462 and therefore Nifty will be sideways within 7997-8462 and will prepare for next decisive moves and finally valid break out of these crucial levels will decide next trend.

Pull Back Rally continuation towards 8431 after follow up consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-05-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-May-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First hour consolidation between 8224-8268
1- Higher levels 3 hours consolidation between 8288-8320
2- Whole day actual trading between 8224-8332

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As selling below 8224 last Friday therefore firstly consolidation just above it between 8224-8268 after gap up opening because all the Asian markets were trading strong and following strong closing of US and Asian markets last Friday:-

1- Dow Jones closed 267.05(1.49%) points up last Friday. 
2- Dax closed 391.76(2.65%) points up last Friday. 3- FTSE 100 closed 159.87(2.32%) points up last Friday.
4- CAC 40 closed 123.17(2.48%) points up last Friday.

Following first resistance range was updated on 09-05-2015 in "Pull Back Rally continuation require permission from 8224":- 

1- 8230-8365

Nifty traded whole day within this range with firstly lower levels and after that 3 hours higher levels consolidation therefore expected that Nifty will cross 8365 after follow up consolidation near about it and test following next resistance range.

2- 8431-8462

As resistance up to 8365 and Very Short Term indicators have turned overbought after last 2 sessions strong rally therefore follow up consolidation is must and Nifty may be sideways in consolidation process as well as some intraday corrections may also be seen but expected that finally last Friday started Pull Back Rally continuation will be seen towards 8431.