4720 Survival Today will Decide Next Long Moves & Trend
Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook For 23-09-2011
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Sep 09 to Sep 22,2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 sessions intraday charts
1- Support between 4912-4960
2- Nifty slipped a little below its lowest(4908) and closed within support range at 4923.
Conclusions
Technically Support range of 4912-4960 has not been broken down because Nifty closed within it yesterday but markets may be highly bearish after US market huge fall therefore deep Red trading is possible today and saving of 4720 will be watched first for stopping/continuation of next down moves confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart(22-Sep-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 32 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
2- Strong resistance between 5110-5220
3- No strong support between 4720-4908
Crucil Empty Zone between 4720-4908
Nifty did not traded between 4720-4908 during last 16 sessions and will trade between this range after gap down opening today. No support between this area and only minor support is at 4720 therefore free fall within this range is very much possible amid most depressing sentiment at present.
Conclusions
All trends are down and lowest of 32 sessions crucial supports have been tested yesterday and no noticable support of last 32 sessions left. Sustaining below 4720 will mean again free fall and then following next supports will be watched:-
1- 4538
2- 4353
3- 3919
Most dampened sentiment and any lower level is possible because Indian markets are completely bearish and all the trends are down. Market require complete consolidation and base formation for trend reversal for any sustained rally. As last 32 sessions range bound market has been its hope also therefore sustaining beyond its lowest of 4720 will be watched first of all. Global markets are melting and if Nifty sustains below 4720 then above mentioned 3 supports will be watched for stopping of on going down moves.
Breaking down of 32 sessions range will mean again deep down moves therefore 4720 survival will tell about next long trend and moves because it will decide that 32 sessions range bound market is being ended today in Bearish mode or not.
Finally expected that Nifty will get support near about 4720 and range bound market within 4720-5229 will remain continued in next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Sep-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 10 Months correction in Falling Trend line
2- 94 Points Gap on 05-08-2011
3- 30 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
4- Strong resistance range is 5100-5220 within last 30 days.
5- Strong support range are 4912-4960 & 5020-5045 within last 30 days.
Inverted Head & Shoulders(Bullish) Pattern in last 30 days
Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Sep-2011):-
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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 30 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
2- Inverted Head & Shoulders formation in last 30 days
3- Inverted Head & Shoulders means Bullish Trend reversal Pattern.
4- Nifty tested neckline of inverted HNS yesterday.
5- Nifty covered 1/3 of next resistance yesterday.
Conclusions
Firstly 9 months correction and after that 30 sessions range bound market(4720-5229) means cooking next long term trend in the same manner as happened in 5 months after 10 months crash of 2008. Inverted Head & Shoulders(Bullish) Pattern seen in last 30 days and Nifty countered its neckline and next resistance range(5100-5220) yesterday. Although Nifty crossed 5130(resistance) also and full strength in yesterday up moves but resistance upto 5220 is strong and market require complete consolidation to cross 5220.
Today Outlook
US markets lost all the intraday gains and closed flat to negative therefore sentiment may be depressed today morning because Asian markets intraday charts also did not showed strength yesterday. Expected that sentiment will be depressed today morning and weak opening may be seen.
Follow up consolidation is must for crossing 5220 and 5075-5130 break out will decide the strength of next resistance(5220) as well as next trend. Crossing 5220 will mean sharp surge and slipping below 5075 will mean testing of above mentioned supports
Follow up buying/selling in first 3/4 hours will give next moves confirmation from intraday charts formations and will be updated in the Mid-session Out looks.
