Watch Crucial Levels for next Short Term Trend after previous week Global markets crashing

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 26 to Jun 30,2023)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.

5- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.

6- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.

7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion strongest indications after its recent bottom formation at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.

8- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which is only one point shorter than life time top at 18887.6.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started after Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. Its  Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 started which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and from this levels impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction bugun which completed at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022. Wave-B begun from this level which completed at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022. Wave-C started from this levels and strongest signals of its completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 because the Pull Back Rally which begun from this levels has completed almost whole corretion and remained only one point short at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 from the top(18887.6) of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 which is life time highest as well.  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which is only one point shorter than life time top at 18887.6.

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.

3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 48.50 & %D(3)- 62.56.

4- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in positive zone.

5- MACD(26,12)- 144.10 & EXP(9)- 160.84 & Divergence- -16.74

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines have started to fall from Over bought zone therefore more down moves will be seen in the coming week. 

2- As both lines of MACD are kissing in positive zone therefore at present this indicator is not signalling any side clear trend. Its both lines are kissing for the last more than one month which means that one sided clear intersection will mean that side big move beginning. As its both lines are in positive zone therefore once up side intersection will mean fresh and strong rally beginning.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 18773 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 18659 

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 18255

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 17908

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 17929

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

As Nifty is well above Intermediate Term Trend(55-Day SMA) and Long Term Trend(200-Day SMA) deciders therefore at present no risk of its turning down but Nifty moved below 5-Day and 21-Day SMA at 18647.1 last Friday during last 2 sessions correction therefore Short Term Trend is at stake. 

Although Nifty closed litle above 21-Day SMA at 18665.50 last Friday but sustaining below 21-Day SMA(18659) will mean Short Term Trend turning down confirmation which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Last 8 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 14 to Jun 23,2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 8 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 8 sessions top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023

2- Last 8 sessions bottom formation at 18647.10 on 23-06-2023

3- Selling(Resistances) in last 8 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 18843-18859 

B- 18849-18886  

4- Mixed Patterns formation

A- 18684-18741 

4- Last 8 Sessions actual trading between 18647.10-18886.6 

Conclusions from 8 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Last 8 Sessions actual trading between 18647.10-18886.6 in which previous 2 sessions were highly volatile because both 8 sessions highest and lowest were formed in these 2 sessions. 

As Nifty closed near the lower levels of last 8 sessions therefore sustaining beyond the lowest(18647.10) of last 8 sessions should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for:-

1- Deeper correction beginning confirmations below it. 

2- First signal of fresh up moves beginning above it. 

As 5 Hours Mixed Patterns formation between 18684-18741 last Friday therefore finally sustaining above 18741 will confirm fresh up moves beginning hence should also be watched for its confirmations. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(23-Jun-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 124 Points down in first 30 minutes after weaker opening

2- 5 Hours Mixed Patterns formation between 18684-18741

3- 54 Points fall in last half hour

4- Whole day actual trading between 18648-18756

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Asian markets were weaker and Dow Jones Futures was also trading in Red therefore sentiment turned dampened last friday morning hence Nifty moved down 124 points down in first 30 minutes after weaker opening. Although after this intraday up moves were seen but Mixed Patterns formation were seen in next 5 hours therefore Nifty fallen 54 Points in last half hour and last Friday closing was near the lower levels of the day because sentiment was too much depresed in last hour due to negative zone trading of all European markets. 

Although last Friday closing was near the lower levels of the day after loosing 0.56% points but these down moves were due to most depressing Global markets and 5 Hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formations also which means that complete selling patterns were not seen therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday lowest(18648) should be watched in the beginning of next week for the confirmations of next decisive moves beginning.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Short Term Trend is at stake which will get confirmation after sustaining beyond its decider 21-Day SMA(today at 18659).

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.

3- Long Term Trend is up.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and after this "ABC" correction begun. Strongest signals of its Wave-C completion has been developed at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 because the Pull Back Rally which started from this level has completed almost whole correction after its highest formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which was only one point shorter than the highest((18887.6)) of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 and it was life time top as well.  

As most Global markets remained in crshing mode during last 2 sessions therefore Nifty missed new life time top formations only by 1 points which was above 18887.6 and slipped 239 points in last 2 sessions after highest formations only 1 point below it at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023. 

Although MACD indicator is not suggesting any side trend but Stochastic indicator is showing signals of more Short Term down moves which may be seen in next week therefore firstly sustaining beyond following "Crucial Levels" should be watched in the coming week for next Short Term Trend formation confirmations:- 

1- 21-Day SMA which is today at 18659

2- Last 8 sessions lowest at 18647.10 

 

Next resistances above last 8 sessions lowest(18647.10) have been updated above and next supports below it are as follows:- 

1- 18532-18565

2- 18479-18516

3- 18419-18445

4- 18373-18397

5- 18325-18353

6- 18203-18261

7- 18059-18127

Firstly watch Levels after depressing

 Global markets

Pre-open Outlook(23-06-2023)

All the Asian markets are trading now in deep Red in following manner:-

1- Nikkei 225- 1.32% down

2- Hang Seng- 1.55% down

3- SET- 0.84% down

4- KOSPI 225- 0.75% down

(Chinese and Taiwan markets are closed today)

As Dow Jones Futures is also trading 92 points down at this moment therefore sentiment has turned dampened today morning and resultant down moves after negative opening in Indian markets can not be ruled out. 

Lower levels good consolidation was seen yesterday therefore firstly sustaining beyond yesterday lowest(18760) should be firstly watched today and if correction continues through Nifty sustaining below it then following supports should be watached one by one for correction continuation/completion confirmations:-

1- 18712-18728

2- 18661-18689

Watch today highest amid 

up moves expectations 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(23-06-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves after flat opening

2- Selling between 18849-18886

3- Down moves

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Sharp up 

6- Selling between 18843-18859

7- Sharp down

8- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

9- Whole day actual trading between 18760-18886

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly up moves after flat opening but missed crossing of life time high(18887.6) by only 1 point and moved down after making today highest at(18886.6) due tor good selling between 18849-18886. As some consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves were seen after that but again selling developed hence again shalp fall was seen.

As lower levels consolidation was seen in last 45 minutes through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore up moves are expected towards today highest and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for next Trend confirmations.

18795-18875 will confirm 

next decisive intraday moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(01-06-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves after positive opening

2- Selling between 18842-18875

3- Consolidation between 18795-18828

4- Selling between 18847-18868

5- Whole day actual trading between 18795-18875

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly up moves after positive opening but higher levels selling developed therefore down moves were seen and Nifty traded in negative zone also. As lower levels good consolidation therefore up moves started but again selling was seen in last hours.

As both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling therefore finally sustaining beyond today trading range(18795-18875) will confirm next decisive intraday moves.

New top of Nifty in this week

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(21-06-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 82 Points sharp fall in first 20 minutes after flat opening

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Sharp up in last half hour

4- Whole day actual trading between 18661-18839

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty opened flat but 82 points sharp fall was seen in first 20 minutes because all the Asian markets were trading in Red and some were more than 1% down as well as Dow Jones Futures was trading more than 125 points down. 

Indian markets out performed all the Global markets today because Global markets remained depressed most of the time today but the up moves which started from lower levels after 10:30 PM remained continued till last minutes and Nifty closed 61 points up after 178 points recovery frpm lower levels in last 5 hours.

As good intraday consolidation today through Up moves with downward corrections and Indian markets completely ignored Global markets weakness therefore expected that up moves above life time highest(18887.6) and new top of Nifty will be seen in this week because no significant resistance above today closing.

18719-18795 will confirm next

 Short Term trend 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(20-06-2023)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jun-2023):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves after positive opening

2- Mixed Patterns formation between 18762-18795 

3- Support between 18719-18745

4- Mixed Patterns formation between 18747-18785

5- Whole day actual trading between 18719-18881

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although all the Asian markets were trading in Red and some markets were more than 1% down as well as Dow Jones Futures was trading in negative zone but Nifty opened in Green and firstly traded 55 points up also because good intraday consolidation was seen at lower levels levels last Friday.

As all the European markets also opened and traded in Red and resultant whole day sentiment remained Bearish today therefore selling developed in Indian markets also and down moves started which remained continued till 01:30 PM.

Lower levels supports above 18719 and more than 3 hours Mixed Patterns formation between 18747-18795 today therefore expected that Nifty will firstly traded prepare for next Short Term trend between and near about 18719-18795 as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm it hence should be firstly watched tomorrow for its confirmations.