Levels will confirm fresh big down 

moves or next decisive up moves

Technical Analysis,Research & 

Weekly Outlook(Mar 22 to Mar 26,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart

analysis(Waves structure)

The rally which started on 24-03-2020 from 7511.10 is in continuation and its impulsive Wave-3 completion strong indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021. 

Now Wave-3 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021 and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 23.11 & %D(3) is at 19.25

2- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward

3- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

4- Last 32 sessions sideways trading range(14468-15421) broken down on 19-03-2021 but closing within it same day at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1  

Conclusions from EOD chart

analysis (Stochastic & MACD)

As indicators and Nifty price action are not showing one sided moves in following manner therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves in next week:-

1- As Stochastic has moves into Oversold zone and  %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward therefore suggesting some up moves in Short Term.

2- MACD line has intersected Average line downward therefore showing downward trend.

3- Although last 32 sessions sideways trading range(14468-15421) broken down on 19-03-2021 but closing was within it same day at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1 and strong recovery from lower levels therefore sustaining beyond last 33 sessions trading range(14468-15351) is firstly required for next trend formation confirmations.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

2- Last 33 sessions correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021

3- Double top formations

4- Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14772

B- 21-Day SMA is today at 14912

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14688

D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12509 

5- Last 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA)

6- Last 2 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA)

Conclusions from EOD chart

analysis (Averages)

Last 33 sessions correction continuation with Double top formations and previous 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA) are showing that Short Term trend has turned down but Intermediate Term trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its decider 55-Day SMA. Let Nifty to sustain beyond 55-Day SMA then life of on going correction and next big moves will get confirmations accordingly. 

Nifty-Last 2 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 18 & Mar 19,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- 4 Hours selling between 14761-14875 on 18-03-2021

2- Sharp fall on 18-03-2021

3- Last hours support between 14479-14590 on 18-03-2021

4- 207 Points sharp fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening on 19-03-2021 

5- Up moves with downward corrections on 19-03-2021

6- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 19-03-2021

7- Up moves with downward corrections on 19-03-2021

8- Last 2 sessions actual trading between 14351-14875 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

As 4 hours selling developed between 14761-14875 after strong opening on 18-03-2021 therefore sharp fall was seen after that but Nifty got supports in last hours between 14479-14590 and closed also within this support range.

As all the Asian markets were trading in deep Red on 19-03-2021 morning therefore 207 Points sharp fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening but 186 points positive closing after strong recovery from lower levels with consolidations thorough Up moves with downward corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.  

4 Hours selling between 14761-14875 on 18-03-2021 and this range will be immediate resistances of Nifty as well as complete consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above 14875. As whole day consolidation on 19-03-2021 therefore complete fresh selling is also required for sustaining below last 2 sessions lowest(14351.10)

As both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling was seen in last 2 sessions between 14351-14875 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for next decisive moves beginning.

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14351-15421 for the last 33 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is down

As last 33 sessions correction continuation with double top formations therefore strong indications of impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021. Although last 32 sessions trading range(14468-15421) was broken down on 19-03-2021 but strong recovery was seen from lower levels and Nifty closed within this range at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1 same day therefore 32 sessions trading range broken down no confirmation. 

As finally sustaining beyond last 33 sessions range(14351-15421) will confirm life of on going correction and Intermediate Term Trend as well as big moves in following manner therefore should be firstly watched in next week:-

1- Sustaining above 15421 will mean fresh rally after correction completion.

2- Sustaining below 14351 will mean 33 sessions like big range broken down confirmation and resultant huge more than 10% correction of impulsive Wave-3

Next resistances above last Friday highest are as follows:-

1- 14761-14875

2- 14901-14949

3- 14997-15046

4- 15158-15196

5- 15201-15241  

6- 15262-15319

7- 15335-15421 

Next supports below last Friday lowest are as follows:-

1- 13817-13865 

2- 13725-13776

3- 13606-13701

As sustaining below last 2 sessions trading lowest(14351) will generate strong indications of fresh big down moves beginning and sustaining above last 2 sessions trading highest(14875) will confirm next decisive up moves beginning therefore should be firstly watched in next moves for its confirmations.

 Levels will confirm life of 5 sessions 

correction amid huge fall possibility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(19-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours selling between 14761-14875(immediate Resistances)

2- Sharp fall

3- Last hours support between 14479-14590

4- Whole day actual trading between 14479-14875

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although strong opening but selling developed and sharp fall was seen after 4 Hours selling between 14761-14875. 

Next supports between 14504-14615 was updated in previous outlook which is last supports of previous 32 sessions sideways trading range(14468-15421) and Nifty closed between it after slipping below it. 

As Nifty got supports in last hours between 14479-14590 and closed also within it therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched tomorrow for the life of last 5 sessions correction as well as remain cautious because sustaining below today lowest will confirm huge fall after last 32 sessions trading range breaking down confirmations.

 Watch levels for next trend confirmations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(18-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Only volatility in first 2 hours

2- Sideways trading between 14818-14857

3- Sideways trading between 14755-14801

4- Sharp fall in last hour

5- Whole day actual trading between 14697-14956

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing was at the lowest of the day after sharp fall in last hour but intraday selling patterns were not seen because only sideways trading developed after volatility in first 2 hours.

When no selling patterns formations despite 189 Points negative closing then next supports below day's lowest and next resistances above day's highest should be watched for next trend confirmations after sustaining beyond day's trading range(14697-14956)

1- Next supports are between 14504-14615

2- Next resistances are between 14978-15051

 Firstly watch levels for next decisive moves beginning confirmations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(17-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sideways trading between 14941-15009

2- Sharp up

3- Selling between 15025-15051

4- Selling between 14978-14991

5- Sharp fall

6- Consolidation between 14891-14944

7- Whole day actual trading between 14891-15051

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although rally remained continued and gained more than 120 points also after positive opening but higher levels selling developed and follow up selling was seen in Mid-session also therefore closing with minor losses after last hours negative zone trading.

As lower levels some consolidation was also seen in last hours therefore today trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 14891-15051 and finally sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

 Rally continuation towards next resistances

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 225 Points sharp fall in first 30 minutes

2- 4 Hours consolidation between 14746-14845(immediate supports)

3- Up moves in last hours

4- Whole day actual trading between 14746-15048

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 225 Points sharp fall in 30 minutes after positive opening but lower levels 4 Hours consolidation therefore Up moves were seen in last hours.

3rd Supports between 14663-14742 were updated yesterday in "Levels will indicate and confirm next big moves" and Nifty consolidated just above it between 14746-14845 today. It means that previous supports have been strengthen therefore expected that today started rally will remain continued towards following next resistances:-

1- 15201-15241

2- 15262-15319 

 Levels will indicate and confirm

 next big moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 15 to Mar 19,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after its top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

3- Long Black candle formation with lowest at 14953.60 on 12-3-2021

4-Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 15039

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14963

C- 21-Day SMA is today at 15022 

D- 55-Day SMA is today at 14602   

Conclusions from EOD 

chart analysis (Averages)

As Waves structure from Impulsive Wave-1 beginning(7511.10 on 24-03-2020) was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in it since then not being posted now.

Although Impulsive Wave-3 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion after recent top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021. 

Short Term Averages(5,13 and 21 Day SMA) are flat and and last Friday long Black candle lowest formation was at 14953.60  which was below all these short Term Averages therefore if Nifty sustains below it in next week then it will be first indication correction beginning on EOD charts.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 60.28 & %D(3) is at 56.33

2- Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone through moving down when Nifty is moving up.

3- MACD line intersected Average line downward

4- Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Stochastic & MACD)

Stochastic and MACD are indication Short Term correction in following manner:-

1- Stochastic is showing negative divergence from over bought zone.

2- MACD line intersected Average line downward.

As 28 sessions like big sideways trading between 14468-15421 therefore sustaining beyond this range will generate big moves which should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks for confirmations.

Nifty-Last 28 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 02 to Mar 12,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 28 Sessions intraday charts

1- Union-Budget day rally on 01-02-2021

2- Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421

3- Selling(Resistances) in last 28 sessions are between:-

A- 15201-15241  

B- 15262-15319

C- 15335-15431 

4- Sideways trading last Friday between 14954-15057    

5- Consolidation(Supports) in last 28 sessions are sessions:-

A- 14866-14906

B- 14788-14855

C- 14663-14742

D- 14504-14615

6- Supports below last 28 sessions trading range are as follows:-

A- 13817-13865 

B- 13725-13776

C- 13606-13701

Conclusions from 28 Sessions 

intra day chart analysis 

Last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421 after 701 points huge rally on Union-Budget day(01-02-2021) with higher levels 3 resistances and lower levels 4 supports and valid break out of this range will confirm next big moves which will be seen in the coming week/weeks.

As Nifty got intraday supports and traded sideways between 14468-15421 in last 2 hours on 12-03-2021 therefore sustaining beyond this range will generate first signal of next big moves which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(12-Mar-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 15262-15319 in first 3 hours

2- Selling between 15201-15241

3- Sideways trading between 14954-15057

4- Whole day actual trading between 14954-15336

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As US markers closed strong in last 2 sessions and Indian markets could not react on it due to Indian Stock markets closing on 11th March therefore in its reaction huge gap up opening of Indian markets on 12-03-2021. 

Last resistances between 15335-15431 were updated in previous weekly Outlook(Mar 08 to Mar 12,2021) and Nifty crashed 382 points last Friday after intraday highest formation at 15336.30 which means that Nifty honored its last resistance.

As good selling in first 3 hours and after that follow up selling in Mid-session therefore sharp fall was seen last Friday.Some supports developed at lower levels and last hours sideways trading between 14954-15057 are suggesting that firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for the life of last Friday started correction.

Keep in mind that until complete consolidation will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move above last Friday highest(15336.30) because good selling was seen below it that day and Fresh selling in the beginning of next week will mean correction continuation towards above mentioned next supports.

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.

3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 14468-15421 for the last 28 sessions.

As stimulus package in USA therefore strong rally was seen in US markets and resultant some up moves were seen in Indian markets also but Indian markets completely under performed US markets and Nifty weekly closing was with less than 100 points gains while Dow Jones formed new life time highs daily in previous week which is a sign of Short Term weakness in Indian markets.

Although Averages and Indicators are showing weakness in Short Term  but some supports are also lying at lower levels as well as last 28 sessions sideways trading between 14468-15421  therefore Nifty will trade within this range in the beginning of next week and prepare for next big moves. 

3 Next Resistances and 4 next supports between 14468-15421 has been updated above and sustaining them beyond should be firstly watched in next week/weeks in following manner:-

1- Sustaining beyond 14954-15057 will give first indication of next big moves.

2- Sustaining beyond 14468-15421 will give final confirmation of next big moves.