Short Term Correction is on cards
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jul 11 to Jul 15,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Jul-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation
2- Wave-A completion at 16410.20 on 20-12-2021
3- Wave-B completion at 18351.00 on 18-01-2022
4- Wave-C bottom formation at 15671.5 on 08-03-2022
5- Wave-X completion at 18114.70 on 04-04-2022
6- Wave-A completion at 15735.80 on 12-05-2021
7- Wave-B completion at 16793.80 on 03-06-2022
8- Wave-C completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022
9- Wave-A continuation with recent top formation at 16275.5 on 08-07-2022
10- In Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone.
11- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 93.77 & %D(3)- 85.13.
12- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward. Its MACD line is rising in positive zone and Average line is rising in negative zone.
13- MACD(26,12)- 75.96 & EXP(9)- -193.52 & Divergence- 269.48
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-5 completed after new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021,this 5th wave was of that Waves structure which begun through its impulsive Wave-1 from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020. Now "ABC" correction of this Waves structure(7511.10-18604.50) is in continuation with Double Zig-Zag pattern formation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. At present Wave-A is on after bottom formation at 15183.4 on 17-03-2022 and its recent top formation is at 16275.5 on 08-07-2022.
In Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone. As it is strong indication of Short Term Correction beginning therefore it may begin any day in next week.
In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward. Its MACD line is rising in positive zone and Average line is rising in negative zone. As it is first strong indication of upward trend formations therefore let firstly its Average line to move into positive zone then will get its confirmations
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Jul-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 15998
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 15748
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 16194
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 16602
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17123
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Wave-A continuation with recent top formation at 16275.5 on 08-07-2022 which is well above 5-Day and 21-Day SMA therefore Short Term Trend has already turned up. As Nifty crossed and closed above 55-Day SMA(16194) last Friday and it is first indication of Intermediate Term Trend turning up therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming 1/2 weeks for its turning up/down confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Bollinger Band)
Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Jul-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Nifty closed above Upper Band of Bollinger Band in previous week
Conclusions from EOD chartanalysis
(Bollinger Band)
As Nifty closed above Upper Band of Bollinger Band in previous week after more than 1000 points rally therefore firstly sustaining beyond Upper Band should be watched in next week for rally continuation confirmations above it or Short Term correction beginning confirmations below it.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(08-Jul-2022)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Jul-2022):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 55 Points sharp fall in first 14 seconds
2- Selling Patterns formation between 16198-16236
3- Whole day actual trading between 16158-16236
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although gap up strong opening last Friday but firstly 55 points sharp fall in first 14 seconds and after that selling Patterns formation was seen between 16198-16236 therefore if Nifty sustains below last lowest(16157.90) in next week then it will be strong signal of correction beginning of that rally which started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term trend is sideays and finally sustaining beyond its decider 55-Day SMA(16194) will confirm its trend.
3- Short Term trend is up.
Although MACD is suggesting signals of upward trend formation but Stochastic is showing Short Term correction strong indications and it is most expected also in next week therefore let expected Short Term correction complete then upward trend will be considered.
As Nifty has closed above 55-Day SMA(16194) and Upper Band of Bollinger Band also in previous week therefore firstly sustaining beyond these 2 indicators should be watched in next week amid Short Term correction beginning strong indications.
Wave-A continuation with its recent top formation at 16275.5 on 08-07-2022 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but intraday chart of last Friday is showing selling patterns and indicators are suggesting that Short Term Correction is on cards therefore expected that firstly correction of Nifty will be seen and finally sustaining beyond Wave-A length(15183.4-16275.5) will confirm next trend.
