Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 07 to Jan 13,2012)
Following technical points are very well established:-
All trends are down after 14 months falling trendline correction and following 2 formations after huge gap down opening on 05-08-2011 at the bottom of correction:-
1- 103 sessions sideways moment between 4720-5229 and intact at present.
2- As 103 sessions range once broken out and several times broken down therefore trend reversal Broadening Pattern formation at the bottom of 14 months correction and it is also still intact.
3- As Nifty slipped below 4693 therefore 36 months waves structure was also at stake in previous weeks but it is also safe at present and impulsive Wave 5 possibility is still alive after completion of Wave 4.
Sustaining beyond 103 sessions trading range(4720-5229) will mean huge moves towards breaking out direction. As Nifty closed within range therefore Indian markets are poised for any side break out. Now we shall try to explore the break out direction of mentioned range and understand immediate next moves through analysis of following charts;-.
Nifty-EOD Chart(06-Jan-2012):-
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1- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 14 months correction is intact.
2- 103 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 is intact.
3- Falling Trendline Correction from the top of Broadening Pattern(5399)
4- Very short term up move from 4532 which got support at 4588 as well as higher bottom confirmation.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Both above patterns(1st & 2nd) broken down during the last half of previous month but again all are intact after the beginning of 2012. Very short term upmove begun from 4532 and it got higher bottom support on the first day of 2012 at 4588 therefore impulsive Wave 5 commencement possibility is also still alive after completion of Wave 4.
Last 3 sessions firstly sideways and then volatile market between 4688-4788 therefore too much has been riped between this 100 points trading range and its break out will give big moves to Indian markets therefore technical positions within this range will be understood because only that will give first indication of next trend:-
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(06-Jan-2011):-
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1- Support between 4688-4720
2- Sharp 75 points surge in 15 minutes
3- Consolidation patterns between 4738-4758 in last 40 minutes
4- Whole day trading between 4687-4795
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis(06-Jan-2011)
Confirm support at lower levels and also consolidation patterns in last 40 minutes therefore today begun upmoves from intraday lower levels will remain continued in the coming sessions.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(05-Jan-2011):-
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1- Selling between 4765-4778.
2- Rising channel broken down.
3- Support between 4731-4742
4- Whole day trading between 4731-4779
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis(05-Jan-2011)
Good selling between 4765-4778 therefore fresh consolidation is required for any upmoves as well as sustaining above 4778.
Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(04-Jan-2011):
1- Consolidation between 4735-4756
2- Rounding bottom support formation
3- Whole day consolidation patterns only
4- Whole day trading between 4730-4780
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis(04-Jan-2011)
Good support at lower levels and whole day consolidation pattern formations also therefore rally continuation expectation emerged from intraday charts formations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Firstly 2008 sharp fall and after that more than 4 months range bound market was seen before 3600 Nifty points rally. In the same manner Now 103 sessions range bound(4720-5229) market after Diwali-2010 sharp fall therefore susch huge upmoves possibility is very much alive after this range break out. As trend reversal Broadening Pattern also developed in thelast 103 sessions therefore 14 months down trend reversal and fresh rally possibility is very much high after 103 sessions range upward break out.
December 2011 was 13th month of Long term correction correction and on going upmove begun on 21-12-2011 from 4532. As 13 is a Fibonacci number therefore correction completion as well as trend reversal possibility in 13th corrective month is very much alive.
Although selling seen at higher levels but good consolidation at lower levels also felt in last 3 sessions as well as more consolidation patterns formations therefore expected that Nifty will finally sustain above last 3 sessions range(4687-4795).
Both intraday and EOD Charts are suggesting for more up moves after very short term correction completion in last 3 sessions. Although up moves may be slow because of following 8 resistances but expected that consolidation process and rally continuation will progress simultaneously in the coming week.
1- 4780-4838
2- 4880-4905
3- 4950-4980
4- 5070-5098
5- 5130-5225
6- 5260-5310
7- 5240-5265
8- 5340-5375