Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)

Quiet market today after steep fall yesterday and today minor up moves are only correction of yesterday fall. As complely range bound market today and intraday chats are showing mixed patterns therefore follow up moves will be watched next Monday for the confirmations of correction completion/continuation.

As intraday selling also at higher levels today therefore more down moves possibility is still alive.

Mid-session Outlook(01-03-2013)

As sharp down yesterday after disappointing Budget in very short term indicators moving into Oversold zone yesterday therefore minor up moves today. Next strong supports are at 5548.35 and slipping up to that level can not be ruled out. Very short term up moves may be seen any time but decisive up moves will be possible only after complete consolidations.

Pull Back rally may be possible but after some consolidations,let it happen first then will be considered.

Technical Analysis and Research For 01-03-2013

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111. 
2- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
3- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013 
4- 3 Consecutive closing below 5823 in previous sessions.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 with trend reversal bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and 3 Consecutive closing below its Neckline(5823) in previous sessions therefore its breaking down confirmations. Now more down moves are expected toward next supports at 5548.35

Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2013)

Indian markets gave weakness confirmations yesterday therefore some more down moves are expected and 5548.35 will be watched because good supports there.

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2013)

Routine eventless Budget without big proposals and no significant impact therefore market tumbled during and after Budget. Today is 3rd day below 5823 and today again slipped from it as well as going to close below it also therefore confirmations of 5823 breaking down resultant more down moves possibility toward 5548. 

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-02-2013)

As market will react on Budget proposals differently and may be volatile also as well as technical positions reverses in such news based moves therefore next trend confirmations should be finally drawn from forceful break out of 5823 or sustaining it beyond. 

Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2013)

Increase of Subsidies and market does not like it therefore emergence of down moves possibilities also and finally sustaining beyond 5823 should be watched after for post Budget market trend.

Post-open Outlook(28-02-2013)

As intraday mixed patterns were seen between 5795-5818 yesterday and fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above it therefore immediate down moves after gap up opening may be for it also. Weakness should not be concluded from today first hour down moves and slipping below 5823 and Stop Loss should be rather longer because volatility may be high today.

Emergence of consolidation indications today therefore development of up moves expectation after Budget.

Next Big Trend beyond 5823 after Budget

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5749-5782 
2- Mixed Patterns between 5795-5818
3- Whole day actual trading between 5749-5818 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As first 3 hours lower levels good consolidations therefore fresh selling is required for sustaining below 5749 but last 3 hours trading with mixed Patterns therefore follow up consolidation is also required for any decisive up move above 5818.

61 previous sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111 and most Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with Neckline at 5823 within this range. Although its Neckline has already been Broken down on 26-02-2013 but breaking down confirmation is required yet therefore Indian markets are technically well poised to respond and react according to Budget today and finally sustaining beyond Neckline(5823) will give following moves confirmations:-

1- Below 5823 will mean fast 5647/5548
2- Above 5823 will be strong indication of correction correction completion and confirmation will be after valid break out of next multiple resistances up to 6111.

Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2013)

Gap up opening today because strong global cues today morning but market will be quiet before Budget and will be volatile also during Budget speech according to its announcements. As previous 2 sessions closing below Neckline(5823) and today closing below it will mean breaking down confirmation through 3 sessions closing below it but closing above 5823 will also mean indication of strong rally after market and industry favourable Budget.

Neither Bullish nor Bearish and should be firstly watched sustaining beyond 5823 after Budget for next big trend strong indication 

Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2013)

When Nifty was trading in Red near today lower levels then bounce back possibility was told at 10:48 AM today and it was seen also and now Nifty is trading above 5800 as well. 

Although I always give range for confirmation of next moves and Trends but can not be given today because news based highly volatile markets and without any base formations.

Firstly validity of yesterday breaking down has to be decided and sustaining beyond 5823 will be watched specially after Budget and then next big trend will be decided accordingly and it should be kept in mind that:-

1- Market is well prepared for big down moves and that will trigger after confirmation of sustaining below 5823.
2- Only big announcements in Budget may save Indian markets from going into Bear grip and strong rally after Budget will be its strong indication as well as confirmation will be after sustaining above crucial Resistances.

Post-open Outlook(27-02-2013)

No respite,under performance than Global markets and down moves continuations after positive opening but Budget announcement tomorrow therefore a bounce back possibility can not be ruled out because very short term indicators are Oversold now.

Last hope for Bulls is Union Budget

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4770.35 on 04-06-2012(Corrective Wave-2 completion and impulsive Wave-3 beginning)
2- 5348.55 on 10-07-2012(Sub Wave-1)
3- 5032.40 on 26-07-2012(Sub Wave-2)
4- 5815.35 on 05-10-2012(Sub Wave-3)
5- 5548.35 on 20-11-2012(Sub Wave-4)
6- 6111.80 on 29-01-2013(Sub Wave-5)
7- 61 sessions sideways trading between 5823-6111. 
8- Head and Shoulders pattern formations in last 61 sessions with Neckline at 5823.
9- Neckline Broken down on 26-02-2013 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Neckline of trend reversal Bearish Head and Shoulders broken down today after following negative news:-

1- US markets closed more than 1.55% to 2.22% down on 25-02-2013.
2- Most Asian markets closed near lowest levels with more than 1% down on 26-02-2013.
3- All European markets traded than 1.5%% weak during Indian trading hours.
4- Disappointing Railway Budget because increase in freight rates is bound to push all round inflation in the country.

A big trend reversal through 61 sessions trading range broken down today due to flood most unexpected negative news flow therefore confirmation is required yet through:-

1- 3 Sessions closing below 5823 or
2- 3% Down from 5823.

As today down moves were without as such selling formations therefore above mentioned confirmation is must for testing of following levels:-

1- 5647(200-Day EMA) because high possibility of its testing after Head and Shoulders like Bearish pattern confirmation.
2- 5548.35 because minimum whole Sub Wave-5 will retrace.

Most depressed sentiment today and last hope for Bulls is Union Budget on 28-02-2013.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(26-Feb-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.79

Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.77

Nifty P/E Ratio(26-Feb-2013): 17.38

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   724 

BSE Declines : 2,136  

NSE Advances :   273

NSE Declines : 1,266

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600  CE(Feb)- 6,700(2.69%)

Nifty- 5600  PE(Feb)- 348,400(6.29%)

Nifty- 5700  CE(Feb)- 483,250(121.21%)

Nifty- 5700  PE(Feb)- -150,500(-2.71%)

Nifty- 5800  CE(Feb)- 2,227,100(117.45%)

Nifty- 5800  PE(Feb)- -742,050(-10.44%)

Nifty- 5900  CE(Feb)- 1,261,250(18.87%)

Nifty- 5900  PE(Feb)- -1,278,100(-26.69%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,015.14(-316.55 Points & -1.64%)

Nifty- closed at 5,761.35(-93.40 Points & -1.60%)

CNX Midcap - closed at 7,718.40(-143.80 Points & -1.83%)

CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,316.30(-75.05 Points & -2.21%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 26-Feb-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 26-Feb-2013 3150.24 3075.56 74.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 26-Feb-2013 1213.8 1374.41 -160.61

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 26-Feb-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5906

R2 5872

R1 5816

Avg 5782

S1 5726

S2 5692

S3 5636

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6  5851    Trgt 2 

H5  5830    Trgt 1

H4  5810    Long breakout 

H3  5785    Go Short 

H2  5777

H1  5769

L1  5752

L2  5744

L3  5736    Long 

L4  5711    Short Breakout 

L5  5691    Trgt 1 

L6  5670    Trgt 2

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 5901
R2 5869
R1 5818
Avg 5786
S1 5735
S2 5703
S3 5652

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5850     Trgt 2
H5 5831     Trgt 1
H4 5812     Long breakout
H3 5789     Go Short
H2 5782
H1 5774
L1 5759
L2 5751
L3 5744     Long
L4 5721     Short Breakout
L5 5702     Trgt 1
L6 5683     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 27-02-2013

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Levels

R3 12145

R2 12074

R1 11961

Avg 11890

S1 11777

S2 11706

S3 11593

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12032     Trgt 2 

H5 11990     Trgt 1

H4 11949     Long breakout 

H3 11898     Go Short 

H2 11881

H1 11864

L1 11831

L2 11814

L3 11797     Long 

L4 11746     Short Breakout 

L5 11705     Trgt 1 

L6 11663     Trgt 2

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Selling Trade

CRUDEOIL-Mar Fut-Sell-Intraday/Positional-SL-5036 & TGT-4956-CMP-5011(Lalit39)

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-02-2013)

Sentiment depressed today firstly due to weaker global markets and after that no enthusiastic announcements in Rail Budget therefore down moves continuation after its completion. Although down but no confirmation of 5823 breaking down because today down moves are without intraday selling patterns and lacking required force also.

As technically confirmations through 3 sessions closing below 5823 below or 3% down moves are also required and this filter will be applied now for breaking down confirmations of 5823 because today down moves are due to negative news generated also.

Mid-session Outlook(26-02-2013)

Today down moves are due to Global markets weakness therefore Nifty is trading below 61 sessions trading range(5823) for the last 2 hours. As today weakness is negative news based amid most depressing sentiments and not due to previous sessions intraday selling therefore 61 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation is required through sustaining below 5823

Although Nifty slipped and now trading below 5800 but without as such intraday selling patterns formations today therefore sustaining below 5823 has not got confirmations yet.

Post-open Outlook(26-02-2013)

Weakness in lines with Asian markets and now hovering around 5823 after slipping below it which is last hope for Bulls and sustaining it beyond should be watched now for deeper correction or Post Budget Rally confirmations.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-02-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2013):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5840-5857
2- Consolidation between 5825-5845
3- Intraday correction completion after 3 corrective Waves completion.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5825-5876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Lower levels good supports with closing after some slipping from  higher levels in last hour but intraday chart is showing 3 corrective ABC waves hence strong indication of intraday correction completion as well. As  consolidation was seen yesterday after good  consolidation last Friday therefore good indication of up moves preparations and possibly after Budget on 28-02-2013.

Pre-open Outlook(26-02-2013)

US markets tumbled more than 1% yesterday therefore sentiment is weak today morning and all the Asian markets are in Red therefore weak to gap down opening is possible and volatility also can not be ruled out because Rail Budget today. As good consolidations in last 2 sessions therefore up moves possibility after Budget is still alive after follow up consolidations today.

For next trend confirmations sustaining beyond 5823 should be firstly watched today in depressed sentiment today morning.

Blog will be updated during trading hours today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(25-02-2013)

Although Indian markets closed at the lowest of the day last Friday but we did not posted Bearish views in all 3 previous Outlooks because intraday charts showed consolidation patterns formations last Friday. Today also when Nifty was trading near today lowest then also we did not updated Bearish views at 12:50 PM because intraday patterns are not showing as such selling formations and good recovery with new intraday high formation was seen after that.

Emergence of fresh up moves hopes because intraday supports at lower levels today but good selling at higher levels in last 60 sessions therefore lot of consolidations are required for any decisive up moves and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.  

Mid-session Outlook(25-02-2013)

Although slipping from higher levels and new intraday low formation below 5836 but intraday patterns are not showing as such selling patterns formations. Until Nifty will not sustaining below 5823 till then view will not be bearish and Valid break out of 5823-5873 will be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(25-02-2013)

Although Nifty traded between 5836-5873 last Friday with intraday consolidation patterns and supports getting above 5823 in previous 60 sessions but breaking down of 5836 and 5823 will be deeper down moves confirmations. As consolidation above 5836 last Friday therefore Bounce back possibility is still alive despite slipping from higher levels immediately after opening today.

Follow up intraday  technical positions will be firstly watched today for sharp down moves below 5823 after fresh selling today or rally possibility after Budget after follow up consoilidations today and next 3 sessions.

View is not Bearish yet because last Friday intraday consolidations formations and follow up intraday patterns will be firstly watched today and also will be updated accordingly as well as Valid break out 5823-5873 should be firstly watched now for next big trend confirmation.