Next Decisive moves Confirmation from 8295-8398 amid Global Markets high Volatility 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-07-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8333-8345
2- Up moves after strong opening of European markets
3- High volatility in last 2 hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 8318-8361

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As soon as intraday charts started to show selling patterns formations then we told following lines today at 12:16 PM in "Mid-session Outlook(07-07-2016)":-

1- intraday charts are showing some selling patterns formations
2- firstly valid break out of today highest(8345.60) should be watched now for next up moves beginning confirmations.

As selling developed immediately after opening today therefore slipping and new intraday lowest formations but strong up moves were also seen immediately after more than 1.25% strong opening of most European markets. We updated 8345.60 for next up moves beginning confirmations and Nifty could not sustain above it and closed below it at 8337.90 despite strong trading of all European markets today. 

As Global markets are also highly volatile in last 2/3 sessions and high volatility was seen in last 2 hours of Indian markets also today as well as technical positions reverses in such high news based high volatility therefore it will be better to get next decisive moves confirmation from sustaining beyond 8295-8398.

We told for selling today at 12:16 PM and FIIs and Diis were net sellers in all the segments today which is clear from following figures:-

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on  07-Jul-2016:-

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 07-Jul-2016 4306.44 4605.95 -299.51

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 07-Jul-2016 1390.76 1550.74 -159.98

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on  07-Jul-2016:- 

Mid-session Outlook(07-07-2016)

Although flat market since opening today but intraday charts are showing some selling patterns formations also because Brexit led weakness was seen in all Global markets yesterday and its reaction is being seen in Indian markets today therefore firstly valid break out of today highest(8345.60) should be watched now for next up moves beginning confirmations.

Finally Rally Continuation after Crashing Global markets led Minor Correction  

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(07-07-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8336-8346
2- Double Bottom support between 8320-8328
3- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- Whole day actual trading between 8320-8364

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lower levels of the day but intraday selling patterns were not seen and on the contrary consolidation with lower levels double bottom supports also developed therefore view will not be Bearish. As consolidation through whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels formations also therefore expected that finally rally above the top(8398.45) of on going rally will remain continued because intraday charts of last 2 sessions have also shown sufficient consolidation patterns formations. 

As following news therefore now most European markets are now more than 2.00% down and Dow's Futures is also trading 108 points weak after deep Red closing of most Asian markets:-

1- Dow futures slide almost 100 points as Brexit fears keep nagging
2- European stocks veer lower as Brexit fears keep biting

(Just click above topic links of news and go through in details)

Although Global markets are crashing like today and if such situation lasts till tomorrow also then initial weakness can not be ruled out in Indian markets but finally rally will remain continued after Global markets led minor correction completion because Indian markets out performed after Brexit referendum in previous week and last 3 sessions intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations also. 

Finally Rally Continuation amid Very Short Term Correction Possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-07-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Intraday corrections
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 8365-8398

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As some Asian markets were trading strong today morning therefore gap up opening of Indian markets but slipping also after some weakness in most European markets. Although whole day sideways trading within 33 points and today closing near the lower levels of the day but intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns through intraday corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels also therefore view will remain Bullish. As Short Term Indicators have turned over bought after last 7 sessions Rally therefore Very Short Term correction is due which may be seen any day but finally rally will remain continued above today highest(8398.45). 

Rally Continuation Expectations towards its Minimum Target at 8543.65

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 04 to Jul 08,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)  
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(8294.95 on 07-06-2016)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(7927.05 on 24-06-2016)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016 

Sideways corrections of whole Post-Budget Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016) 
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016
5- Sideways corrections after every 2/3 sessions up moves
6- Previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken down on 24-06-2016 but not sustaining below it and moved up after lowest formation at 7927.05
7- Previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken out and closing above it at 8328.35 on 01-07-2016

Intra Day Chart Analysis(01-07-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jul-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling patterns formation between 8345-8355
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Intraday corrections
4- Whole day actual trading between 8309-8356

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Global markets cues were blasting therefore strong gap up opening and consolidation was also seen through sufficient intraday corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but minor selling patterns formation also at higher levels of the day therefore some more consolidation is required for sustaining above day's highest. As both buying and selling patterns formations last Friday therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within or near about day's trading range(8309-8356) in the beginning of next week but high possibility of on going rally continuation because more consolidation patterns formations than selling patterns.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is up through confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7863). 
2- Intermediate Term Trend was sideways within previous 25 sessions most time trading range(8064-8295) but first signal of its turning up through closing above it at 8328.35 after intraday highest formation at 8356.75 on 01-07-2016. 
3- Short Term Trend has turned up after post Brexit strong rally. 

It has been seen seen since the beginning of Post Budget-2016/17 Rally that market has corrected and consolidated within sideways trading range after every 2/3 sessions up moves,same was seen on 01-07-2016 also when previous 25 sessions sideways trading range(8064-8295) broken out and closing above it at 8328.35. It is confirm that once sustaining above 8295 will mean fresh rally towards following next resistances:-

1- 8470-8520
2- 8575-8652

As some higher levels intraday selling patterns formation and Bearish "Shooting Star Candle" formation on 01-07-2016 therefore some consolidation is firstly required in next week for fresh rally beginning and sustaining above last 25 sessions highest(8295). 

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5". Impulsive Wave-3 is on and it should gain more points than Wave-1 gained.

Wave-i of Wave-3 gained 8294.95-7678.35=616.60 Points
Wave-iii of Wave-3 started from 7927.05 and and as per Elliott Wave theory it should gain minimum 616.60 points because it can not be shorter than Wave-i of Wave-3 therefore its minimum target is at:-

8543.65=7927.05(Wave-iii of Wave-3 started)+616.60(Wave-i of Wave-3)

As some selling patterns formations on 01-07-2016 therefore only sustaining above last 25 sessions highest(8295) should be firstly watched in next week because that will mean Nifty towards minimum target of 24-06-2016 started Wave-ii of Wave-3 at 8543.65. Indian markets are Bullish and expected that finally rally will remain continued towards and above 8543.65 after follow up consolidation in the coming 1/2 sessions.