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ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
CNBC-TV18 Poll: RBI may hike repo, reverse repo by 25 bps
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FM talks of inflation, fiscal responsibility at FSDC meet
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NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 21-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5674-TGT-5774-CMP-5696
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-BTST)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE
FOR SL-5674-TGT-5774 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5696
Mid-session outlook(21-01-2011)
As told for profit booking immediately after opening today,same is seen and Nifty could not sustained at higher levels and slipped. Selling confirmation between 5695-5714 and this range is resistance also. As good support at lower level also therefore expected that Nifty will hover today between 5650-5695 and prepare for next moves. Good buying at lower levels and good selling also higher level today therefore both side moves are capped and it will be better to wait for break out of 5650-5695.
Post-open outlook(21-01-2011)
Profit booking signals since morning therefore view is cautious today.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 20-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5700(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)
Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-21-01-2011
H6 5830 Trgt 2
H5 5804 Trgt 1
H4 5779 Long breakout
H3 5748 Go Short
H2 5738
H1 5728
L1 5707
L2 5697
L3 5687 Go Long
L4 5656 Short Breakout
L5 5631 Trgt 1
L6 5605 Trgt 2
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 20-01-2011)-GLOBAL MARKETS WEAK TODAY MORNING BUT HOLD AND JUST WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE
Trading Levels for 21-01-11
Nifty Spot Levels for 21-01-11
R3 5561
R2 5598
R1 5655
AVG 5692
S1 5749
S2 5786.
S3 5843
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 21-01-11
R3 5540
R2 5586
R1 5652
AVG 5698
S1 5764
S2 5810
S3 5876
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 21-01-11
R3 11403
R2 11156
R1 10990
AVG 10743
S1 10577
S2 10330
S3 10164
Bull has taken charge
Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-01-2011)
As Weekly,EOD and intraday charts are not suggesting bearish markets therefore no weakness projections were posted even yesterday when all the global markets were in deep Red but on the contrary bullish indications were given in following words:-
1- Pre-open outlook- View is bullish for the reasons expressed in last 3 days outlooks
2- Post-open outlook(10:42 am)- Indian markets out performing global markets today
Nifty traded most of the time within 5630-5745 in last 4 sessions snd this range break out will decide survival of 200 Day EMA and long term trend of Indian markets therefore intraday positions within this range of last 5 sessions shown in following intraday chart:-
1- 5 days intraday chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
As base formation seen at lower levels therefore finally upside break out of last 4 days range expected as well as long term up trend will also survive and also expected that strong rally will be seen after mentioned range break out and completion on intermediate term correction.
Opening will depend on global cues and expected that Nifty will sustain above 5700 finally and Green closing will be seen today.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 20-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-BTST)SL-5674-TGT-5774-CMP-5718
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-BTST)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5674-TGT-5774 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5718
Post-open outlook(20-01-2011)
The range of 5640-5665 was given in Pre-open outlook-2 today for confirmation of next move in completely depressed sentiment. Nifty traded first one and half hour within this range and crossed 5665 without dipping below 5640. Indian markets out performing global markets today and it seems today that Indian markets got support within mentioned range. Sustaining above 5665 will be watched first for next immediate move confirmation as well as long term trend confirmations.
Pre-open outlook(20-01-2011)
All the global markets are crashed therefore sentiment is completely depressed today morning and retesting of 200-day EMA(5649) is possible today. 5640-5665 is next strong support range and sustaining below 5640 will mean high risk of long term trend turning down.
Expected that Nifty will trade first near 5640-5665 after weak opening today and sustaining beyond will be watched next move confirmations.
Expected that Nifty will trade first near 5640-5665 after weak opening today and sustaining beyond will be watched next move confirmations.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(20-01-2011)
Sentiment heated due to Union Cabinet reshuffle news therefore voltality seen after profit booking at higher levels and buyinng at lower levels within 5665-5690 yesterday. Pull back rally started from Monday and Nifty was volatile after intraday profit booking and buying within 5665-5745 yesterday. As support seen at lower levels also therefore Monday begun pull back rally is still alive and yesterday range break out will be next move confirmation.
Although Indian markets closed in Red yesterday and sentiment is also depressed but following points will also be kept in mind for deciding next trend:-
1- Bullish Wave-3 is on.
2- Long term trend is still up.
3- 2011 down moves are the result of last week non-stop negative news and not the result of genuine selling.
Support and Correction completion signals seen on Previous Monday and Tuesday but yesterday patterns are showing mixed formations therefore next moves will be decided from follow up moves of today. I mean to say that if follow up selling develops today then minimum 200-Day EMA retesting will be seen and today follow up buying will mean continuation of Monday started rally.
Today trading range will be 5665-5745 and expected that Nifty will prepare first within this range for next moves. Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn after today intraday charts analysis.
View is bullish for the reasons expressed in last 3 days outlooks.
Although Indian markets closed in Red yesterday and sentiment is also depressed but following points will also be kept in mind for deciding next trend:-
1- Bullish Wave-3 is on.
2- Long term trend is still up.
3- 2011 down moves are the result of last week non-stop negative news and not the result of genuine selling.
Support and Correction completion signals seen on Previous Monday and Tuesday but yesterday patterns are showing mixed formations therefore next moves will be decided from follow up moves of today. I mean to say that if follow up selling develops today then minimum 200-Day EMA retesting will be seen and today follow up buying will mean continuation of Monday started rally.
Today trading range will be 5665-5745 and expected that Nifty will prepare first within this range for next moves. Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn after today intraday charts analysis.
View is bullish for the reasons expressed in last 3 days outlooks.
Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-20-01-2011
H6 5782 Trgt 2
H5 5761 Trgt 1
H4 5740 Long breakout
H3 5715 Go Short
H2 5706
H1 5698
L1 5680
L2 5672
L3 5663 Go Long
L4 5638 Short Breakout
L5 5617 Trgt 1
L6 5596 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 20-01-11
Nifty Spot Levels for 20-01-11
R3 5823
R2 5785
R1 5738
AVG 5700
S1 5653
S2 5615
S3 5568
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 20-01-11
R3 5834
R2 5794
R1 5741
AVG 5701
S1 5648
S2 5608
S3 5555
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 20-01-11
R3 10899
R2 10822
R1 10725
AVG 10648
S1 10551
S2 10474
S3 10377
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 19-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5719-TGT-5791-CMP-5742
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5719-TGT-5791 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5742
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5719-TGT-5791 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5742
Mid-session outlook-(19-01-2011)
Market not showing strength since opening today and profit booking signals seen at higher levels today. Confirmation required from the break out of 5710-5739.
Trading Strategy for Nifty(Jan Fut)-19-01-2011
H6 5802.74 Trgt 2
H5 5786.62 Trgt 1
H4 5770.50 Long breakout
H3 5751.25 Go Short
H2 5744.83
H1 5738.42
L1 5725.58
L2 5719.17
L3 5712.75 Go Long
L4 5712.75 Short Breakout
L5 5677.38 Trgt 1
L6 5661.26 Trgt 2
Trading Levels for 19-01-11
Nifty Spot Levels for 19-01-11
R3 5806
R2 5768
R1 5746
AVG 5708
S1 5686
S2 5648
S3 5626
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 19-01-11
R3 5828
R2 5785
R1 5758
AVG 5715
S1 5688
S2 5645
S3 5618
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 19-01-11
R3 10879
R2 10789
R1 10712
AVG 10622
S1 10545
S2 10455
S3 10378
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 18-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 18-01-2011)--COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5733
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 18-01-2011)MESSAGE
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 18-01-2011)-MARKETS WILL BE VOLATILE THEREFORE HOLD & COVER ONLY AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE
Rally is On
Pre-Open Market Outlook(19-01-2011)
When most of the market participants was bearish then bullish outlook was projected in following lines in last 2 sessions:-
1- In weekly Outlook on 17-01-2011- Firstly detailed analysis of 200-Day EMA discussed and then in conclusive lines told that:-
"200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks"
2- In Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-01-2011):-
1- intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690
2- consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
4- finally Green closing expected today.
Bullish outlook has already been presented in daily and weekly charts analysis in last 2 day days and now intraday charts will confirm next moves therefore yesterday intraday chart analysis is being posted now. 3 following bullish Formations seen in 18-01-2011 Intraday Chart:-
1- Rounding Bottom Support
2- Falling Trendline Break out
3- Support at Falling Trendline
1- 3 Bullish Formations in 18-01-2011 Intraday Chart:-
Down moves started from 05-01-2011 and since then last 10 days intraday charts patterns are as follows:-
1- First 4 sessions fall in "Water fall patterns" on the back of negative news flow and without any specific resistance.
2- Resistance within 5810-5870.
3- Good consolidation within 5635-5700 in last 3 sessions.
2-10 days intraday Analysis chart:-
Conclusions
Strong indications of correction completion and 100% confirmation point will be crossing of next resistance range(5810-5870) as well as zooming up of Indian markets expected after this break out.
Positive market with Green closing expected today.
When most of the market participants was bearish then bullish outlook was projected in following lines in last 2 sessions:-
1- In weekly Outlook on 17-01-2011- Firstly detailed analysis of 200-Day EMA discussed and then in conclusive lines told that:-
"200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks"
2- In Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-01-2011):-
1- intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690
2- consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
4- finally Green closing expected today.
Bullish outlook has already been presented in daily and weekly charts analysis in last 2 day days and now intraday charts will confirm next moves therefore yesterday intraday chart analysis is being posted now. 3 following bullish Formations seen in 18-01-2011 Intraday Chart:-
1- Rounding Bottom Support
2- Falling Trendline Break out
3- Support at Falling Trendline
1- 3 Bullish Formations in 18-01-2011 Intraday Chart:-
Down moves started from 05-01-2011 and since then last 10 days intraday charts patterns are as follows:-
1- First 4 sessions fall in "Water fall patterns" on the back of negative news flow and without any specific resistance.
2- Resistance within 5810-5870.
3- Good consolidation within 5635-5700 in last 3 sessions.
2-10 days intraday Analysis chart:-
Conclusions
Strong indications of correction completion and 100% confirmation point will be crossing of next resistance range(5810-5870) as well as zooming up of Indian markets expected after this break out.
Positive market with Green closing expected today.
Pull Back Rally Consolidation Pattern
Consolidation pattern on 17-01-2011
Indian markets consolidated within 5640-5690 whole day on 17-01-2011 and after analysis of intraday patterns following lines were told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-01-2011):-
1- intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690
2- consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
4- finally Green closing expected today.
Indian markets consolidated within 5640-5690 whole day on 17-01-2011 and after analysis of intraday patterns following lines were told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-01-2011):-
1- intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690
2- consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
4- finally Green closing expected today.
Sensex up 224 points, good corporate results help sentiments
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NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 18-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN F&O-BUY-POSITIONAL)S.P.FOR CALL-5700.5800-BUY AT CMP-5727 (SL AND TGT WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW)
Mid-session outlook-(18-01-2011)
Nifty trading between 5675-5720 since opening today and selling indications seen at higher levels today. As selling indications at higher levels therefore mentioned range will be watched cautiously. Although minor higher level selling indications but feeling litle support at lower level also. Wait and watch policy wil be the best at this moment. Let market prepare within mentioned range and its break out will be next immediate moves confirmations. View is still bullish.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-2ND BUYING OF 17-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 17-01-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5715
Pull Back Rally is On Cards
Pre-Open Market Outlook(18-01-2011)
Long term trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5648 and Nifty traded most of the time above it yesterday. Nifty got support 6 times at 5640 and closed at 5655 with Doji formation and intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690 yesterday.
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis:
1-Averages- Nifty is hovering around 200-Day EMA and its sustaining beyond will confirm Long term trend and that will be dcided within this week.
2-Bollinger Band- is at lower band after fast slipping from upper band. As at lower band therefore indicating high up moves possibilities.
3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in negative zone. MACD line is below Average line and gap between both lines increased. As big divergence between both lines therefore up moves possibilities are high to converge both lines accor/ding to its nature.
4-ROC- Entered into oversold zone therefore indicating up moves possibility.
5-RSI- Sliding and resting at oversold line therefore indicating up moves possibility after little more time passing here..
6-Slow Stochastic & William %R- Very short term indicators with lines in oversold for the last 6 sessions. As this indicator does not remain too much time in oversold area and moves up fast after getting support from other indicators. As other indicators are also showing upmoves preperation therefore these are mature for very short term up moves.
Daily Indicators and Averages chart-
Indicators analysis is showing that Indian markets are very much technically prepared for minimum a Pull Back Rally. Indian markets out performed global markets and consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered. Detailed analysis has already been posted yesterday in weekly- 17-01-2011 to 21-01-2011 and indicators analysis has been posted today. As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
Opening will depend on global cues but finally Green closing expected today.
Long term trend decider 200-Day EMA is at 5648 and Nifty traded most of the time above it yesterday. Nifty got support 6 times at 5640 and closed at 5655 with Doji formation and intraday charts showing consolidation patterns within 5640-5690 yesterday.
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis:
1-Averages- Nifty is hovering around 200-Day EMA and its sustaining beyond will confirm Long term trend and that will be dcided within this week.
2-Bollinger Band- is at lower band after fast slipping from upper band. As at lower band therefore indicating high up moves possibilities.
3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in negative zone. MACD line is below Average line and gap between both lines increased. As big divergence between both lines therefore up moves possibilities are high to converge both lines accor/ding to its nature.
4-ROC- Entered into oversold zone therefore indicating up moves possibility.
5-RSI- Sliding and resting at oversold line therefore indicating up moves possibility after little more time passing here..
6-Slow Stochastic & William %R- Very short term indicators with lines in oversold for the last 6 sessions. As this indicator does not remain too much time in oversold area and moves up fast after getting support from other indicators. As other indicators are also showing upmoves preperation therefore these are mature for very short term up moves.
Daily Indicators and Averages chart-
Indicators analysis is showing that Indian markets are very much technically prepared for minimum a Pull Back Rally. Indian markets out performed global markets and consolidated within 5640-5690 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain below 5640 after fresh selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered. Detailed analysis has already been posted yesterday in weekly- 17-01-2011 to 21-01-2011 and indicators analysis has been posted today. As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for bounce back/V-Shaped recovery/Pull Back Rally and that will be seen from any day in this week.
Opening will depend on global cues but finally Green closing expected today.
Monetary policy management becoming tougher: RBI governor
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India Facing Inflation `Surge,' Subbarao Says Before Interest-Rate Policy
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NIFTY-JAN F&O-2ND BUYING OF 17-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5624-TGT-5744-CMP-5660
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5660
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5660
Mid-session outlook-(17-01-2011)
Highly volatile within narrow range market today and holding above 200-Day EMA despite weaker global cues. Today trading ranges 5635-5695 and this range break out will give first strong indication for deciding long term trend.
Although indian markets are trading in Red today but out performing all global markets and mentioned today range break out will give next move confirmation therefore is break out should be watched but today intraday patterns are suggesting buyingand support at lower levels therefore up move possibilities from here is still alive.
Although indian markets are trading in Red today but out performing all global markets and mentioned today range break out will give next move confirmation therefore is break out should be watched but today intraday patterns are suggesting buyingand support at lower levels therefore up move possibilities from here is still alive.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 17-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 17-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5655
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 17-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5644-TGT-5764-CMP-5686
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5644-TGT-5764 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5686
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5644-TGT-5764 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5686
NIFTY-JAN F&O-BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5859
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 14-01-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011)-MARKETS WILL BE VOLATILE TODAY THEREFORE COVER ONLY AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE
Watch 200-Day EMA for long term trend confirmations.
Weekly Analysis- 17-01-2011 to 21-01-2011
Last 9 sessions sharp down moves are not technically based but only on the back of following news:-
1- 2 most depressing weekly inflation data.
2- Sharply declined IIP data.
3- Below expectations INFY quarterly results.
4- Disappointing monthly inflation data last Friday.
Nifty is trading within 5690-6339 for the last 4 months and Nifty got support at its lowest 3 times earlier but broken down and closed below it last Friday after rising monthly inflation data and tested 200-Day EMA as well. No distribution pattern but "Falling Channel" formation is seen in last 4 months EOD chart. It is continuation pattern and it means that on going up trend will remain continued. Wave 3 trend line has not breached also therefore up trend is still intact.
Waves Structure and continution Patterns in Daily Chart:-
Intermediate and short term trends are down. Although Nifty tested 200-Day EMA but closed above it last Friday therefore long term trend is still up. Wave 3 is very much on at this moment and it has tested 200-Day EMA earlier since its begining on 13-07-2009 in intermediate term corrections and Nifty tested 3rd time in on going up move. It is the nature of bull ralies that prices are tend to test 200-Day EMA in corrections and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Wave 3 will remain on and primary trend will remin up.
It is the nature of bull markets intermediate term correction that:-
1- Prices may hover around 200-Day EMA for few sessions.
2- Prices may dip below or also close 1/2 sessions below 200-Day EMA.
but long term trend will remain up Until:-
1- Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day EMA minimum 3 sessions
2- Nifty will not dip more than 3% down from 200-Day EMA
3- Nifty will not break down 200-Day EMA by force.
200-Day EMA is today at 5648 and should be watched first for mext moves confirmations. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels but distribution patterns are not seen on intraday,daily and weekly charts therefore on going down moves are only the result of extremely high inflation and RBI rates hike fear.
Conclusions
As down moves are not the result of distribution patterns therefore does not require much consolidations before any rally and sharp V-shaped recovery possibility can not be ruled out. 200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks.
Last 9 sessions sharp down moves are not technically based but only on the back of following news:-
1- 2 most depressing weekly inflation data.
2- Sharply declined IIP data.
3- Below expectations INFY quarterly results.
4- Disappointing monthly inflation data last Friday.
Nifty is trading within 5690-6339 for the last 4 months and Nifty got support at its lowest 3 times earlier but broken down and closed below it last Friday after rising monthly inflation data and tested 200-Day EMA as well. No distribution pattern but "Falling Channel" formation is seen in last 4 months EOD chart. It is continuation pattern and it means that on going up trend will remain continued. Wave 3 trend line has not breached also therefore up trend is still intact.
Waves Structure and continution Patterns in Daily Chart:-
Intermediate and short term trends are down. Although Nifty tested 200-Day EMA but closed above it last Friday therefore long term trend is still up. Wave 3 is very much on at this moment and it has tested 200-Day EMA earlier since its begining on 13-07-2009 in intermediate term corrections and Nifty tested 3rd time in on going up move. It is the nature of bull ralies that prices are tend to test 200-Day EMA in corrections and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Wave 3 will remain on and primary trend will remin up.
It is the nature of bull markets intermediate term correction that:-
1- Prices may hover around 200-Day EMA for few sessions.
2- Prices may dip below or also close 1/2 sessions below 200-Day EMA.
but long term trend will remain up Until:-
1- Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day EMA minimum 3 sessions
2- Nifty will not dip more than 3% down from 200-Day EMA
3- Nifty will not break down 200-Day EMA by force.
200-Day EMA is today at 5648 and should be watched first for mext moves confirmations. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels but distribution patterns are not seen on intraday,daily and weekly charts therefore on going down moves are only the result of extremely high inflation and RBI rates hike fear.
Conclusions
As down moves are not the result of distribution patterns therefore does not require much consolidations before any rally and sharp V-shaped recovery possibility can not be ruled out. 200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks.
Trading Levels for 17-01-11 & Next Week Levels
Nifty Spot Levels for 17-01-11
R3 5973
R2 5903
R1 5778
AVG 5709
S1 5585
S2 5515
S3 5391
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 6015
R2 5936
R1 5795
AVG 5716
S1 5575
S2 5496
S3 5355
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 11371
R2 11163
R1 10801
AVG 10593
S1 10231
S2 10023
S3 9661
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (17 Jan to 21 Jan 2011)
R3 6095
R2 6001
R1 5828
AVG 5734
S1 5561
S2 5467
S3 5294
R3 5973
R2 5903
R1 5778
AVG 5709
S1 5585
S2 5515
S3 5391
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 6015
R2 5936
R1 5795
AVG 5716
S1 5575
S2 5496
S3 5355
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 11371
R2 11163
R1 10801
AVG 10593
S1 10231
S2 10023
S3 9661
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (17 Jan to 21 Jan 2011)
R3 6095
R2 6001
R1 5828
AVG 5734
S1 5561
S2 5467
S3 5294
petrol price hike lesser than desired retail selling rate: IOC
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