Finally Downward moves towards
next Supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 06 to May 10,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-May-2024):-
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 on 03-05-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 after Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of completion at his level. Corrective Wave-2 begun from this level which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023. Impulsive Wave-3 started from this level,of which Wave-(iii) is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 on 03-05-2024 as well as no confirmation of its competion yet on EOD charts..
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-May-2024):-
1- Rising Channel Pattern formations and Nifty is moving within it
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 54.34 & %D(3)- 67.20.
4- Stochastic is showing negative divergence.
5- In MACD-its both lines are kissing in Positive zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- 61.44 & EXP(9)- 30.42 & Divergence- 31.02
7- MACD is showing negative divergence.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with Rising Channel Pattern formations on EOD Charts which started to develop 3 months before and since then Nifty moved most time within its both upper and lower rising lines,let valid break out/down of its any side line happen then that side next big moves will be seen. Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone and Stochastic is showing negative divergence also therefore decisive downward moves are expected in the coming week.
3- As in MACD indicator its both lines are kissing in Positive zone therefore it will be understood that now it is not showing any side Trend formation signal. Let any side clear intersection happen then that side decisive moves will be seen after that side Trend formations but MACD is showing negative divergence also therefore finally decisive downward moves are expected in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-May-2024):-
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 22558
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 22453
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 22250
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 21929
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 20782
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is well above Long and Intermediate Term Trend deciders 200-Day SMA and 55-Day SMA respectively therefore these 2 Trends are up but Short Term Trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its deciders 5-Day SMA and 21-Day SMA for the last few sessions.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(03-May-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-May-2024):-
1- Selling between 22759-22794
2- Down moves with upward corrections
3- Supports in the last 2 hours between 22349-22494
4- Whole day actual trading between 22349-22794
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although gap up strong opening last Friday but immediately selling developed and down moves started as well as Nifty moved into negative zone after loosing all intradaalso y gains. As down moves were with upward corrections in Mid-session therefore follow up selling will be understood. Lower levels supports developed in the last 2 hours between 22349-22494 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this range in the beginning of next week. As finally sustaining beyond this supports range will confirm next decisive moves beginning hence it should be firstly watched in the coming week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is at stake.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 in previous session and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing more downward moves signals and intraday chart of previous session is also showing higher levels good selling therefore more down moves are expected in the beginning of next week.
As "Rising Channel Pattern" formations on EOD Charts is being seen for the last more than 3 months therefore it is confirm that once valid break out/down of its line any side will mean that side bigger moves beginning confirmations. Although new life time top formations last Friday but both Short Term indicators Stochastic and MACD are showing negative divergence since longer period therefore deeper correction beginning possibility can not be ruled out. Let valid break down of lower Rising line of "Rising Channel Pattern" then deeper correction beginning will get confirmations therefore following next supports should be watched one by one in the coming week/weeks:-
1- 22349-22494
2- 22261-22349
3- 22199-22258
4- 21886-22027
5- 21795-21860
6- 21711-21791
7- 21653-21690
8- 21544-21628
Resistances above previous session closing is as follows:-
1- 22753-22794
2- 22733-22783
3- 22674-22702
4- 22578-22609
5- 22516-22552
