Finally Crucial Levels will decide Next Trend amid Brexit led Uncertainty

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 8075-8101
2- Whole day actual trading between 8075-8164

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were in deep Red and some were more than 01.50% down therefore sentiment turned depressed today morning and resultant much weaker opening of Indian markets as well as slipping in first 2 hours. Following consolidation levels were updated in last 3 sessions:-

1- Consolidation between 8064-8084 on 13-06-2016
2- Consolidation between 8070-8091 on 14-06-2016
3- Consolidation between 8124-8142 on 15-06-2016

Nifty traded most time between above mentioned consolidation levels and closed also within it despite deep Red trading of Asian and European markets today. As Nifty got supports also within above mentioned levels today therefore these levels have become stronger supports and until Nifty will not sustain below 8064 after complete fresh selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen but decisive down moves will be considered only after sustaining below 7992.

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8242-8255
2- 8260-8315
3- 8470-8520
4- 8575-8652

(Sustaining above 2nd resistance range(8315) will be fresh strong rally confirmation)

As uncertainty due to Brexit therefore nervousness in all the Global markets and huge volatility also can not be ruled out in the Indian markets. In this situation finally sustaining beyond crucial levels(7992-8315) will decide next Trend and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next trend confirmations.

Firstly Watch sustaining above 2nd Resistance Range after No Rates Hike Decision by FOMC

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-Jun-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8124-8142
2- Sudden up moves beginning after the Union Cabinet decision news of Associate Banks merger into SBI
3- Whole day actual trading between 8124-8213

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following lines were told on 14-06-2016 in "Next(gap) Resistance filling will mean Fresh and Strong Rally":-

1- Indian markets are technically well prepared for strong rally
2- Next(gap) resistance are between 8135-8163 and once filling of this gap will mean fresh and strong rally beginning tomorrow or next Thursday.

Strong rally was seen after the gap filling and it happened after the Union Cabinet decision news of Associate Banks merger into SBI. Rally is on and continuation is expected but following resistances are lying just above day's highest therefore up moves within following resistances may be slow:-

1- 8242-8355
2- 8260-8315
3- 8470-8520
4- 8575-8652

Although good news of no rates hike decision by FOMC but most crucial Brexit decision is pending and that will come on 22-06-2016 therefore firstly sustaining above 2nd resistance range(8315) should be watched and once its valid break out will mean fresh strong rally.

Next(gap) Resistance filling will mean Fresh and Strong Rally

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(15-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 8070-8091
3- Whole day actual trading between 8070-8123

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Post FOMC decisive moves preparations between 8064-8237":-

1- Consolidation between 8064-8084
2- Nifty will firstly prepare for post FOMC decisive moves between 8064-8237
3- sustaining above 8163 will produce strong up moves because good consolidation was seen above it last Friday and today down moves below it were crashing Global markets led.

Nifty traded whole day above 8064 today with intraday lowest formation at 8069.50 and follow up consolidation between 8070-8091 after consolidation within this range yesterday between 8064-8084 therefore levels between 8064-8091 have become immediate and stronger supports because consolidation within this range was seen in last 2 sessions and until Nifty will not sustain below 8064 till then decisive down moves will not be seen.   

Although finally next big moves will be seen after FOMC announcements next Thursday some volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow due to  FOMC led uncertainty and crashing Global markets but it is confirm that Indian markets are technically well prepared for strong rally because good consolidation was seen above 8163 last Friday and last 2 sessions down moves below it were crashing Global markets led.

Next(gap) resistance are between 8135-8163 and once filling of this gap will mean fresh and strong rally beginning tomorrow or next Thursday.

Firstly Post FOMC decisive moves preparations between 8064-8237

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(14-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8064-8084(Immediate Supports)
2- Last 15 minutes trading near about previous supports(8112) 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8064-8125

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Sentiment was extremely depressed today morning due to following Global markets weakness:-

1- US markets closed 0.67% to 1.29% down after more than 2% weaker closing of most European markets last Friday
2- Most Asian markets were trading more than 1.5% down and some were more than 2% weak today morning.
3- Dow's Futures was also trading more than 60 points down today morning
4- SGX Nifty was trading more than 65 points down today morning

Although above mentioned Global markets and SGX Nifty weakness today morning but we told following lines today at 08:34 AM in "Firstly watch Most Crucial Support in Next FOMC News led Week":-

1- As supports are upto 8112 therefore finally its valid break down will be correction beginning confirmation towards the top of previous 28 Sessions sideways trading range highest(7992).  
2- Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day last Friday but intraday consolidation patterns were seen that day therefore until fresh selling will not develop in next week till then Nifty will not sustain below 8112.
3- As Nifty is trading and closing above the lowest of last support(8112) for the last 10 sessions therefore it has become most crucial support now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next FOMC news led week

We told for the importance of 8112 again and again and Nifty hovered it around in last 15 minutes as well as closed just below it at 8110.60 today. We told 3 times in previous outlooks for the possibility of correction towards the top of previous 28 Sessions sideways trading range highest(7992) and it was also seen today. 

Although Indian markets closed in Red after loosing 0.73% points but Indian markets out performed all Global markets today despite huge gap down opening today. As lower levels consolidation were also seen today therefore hopes are still alive that fresh rally will be seen after on going correction completion above 7992.

FOMC expectation led volatility can not be ruled out in the coming both sessions but on going Correction completion is expected without sustaining below 7992. Expected that Nifty will firstly prepare for post FOMC decisive moves between 8064-8237 and finally valid break out of this range will decide the fate of on going correction. Slipping below 8064 will mean correction continuation towards 7992 and sustaining above 8163 will produce strong up moves because good consolidation was seen above it last Friday and today down moves below it were crashing Global markets led.

Firstly watch Most Crucial Support in Next FOMC News led Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 13 to Jun 17,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016)  
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8294.95 on 07-06-2016
5- Short Term Correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8162.85 on 10-06-2016 
6- Long Term Trend turning up confirmation after confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7830)

Sideways corrections of whole rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Wave-1(7992 on 28-04-2016) 
3- Wave-2(7678.35 on 06-05-2016)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8294.95 on 07-06-2016
5- Sideways corrections after every 2/3 sessions up moves
6- Sideways correction continuation for the last 10 sessions

Previous 10 Sessions sideways trading

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (May 30 to Jun 10,2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation in last 10 sessions.
2- 10 Sessions sideways trading between 8134-8295 

Intra Day Chart Analysis(10-06-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jun-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Huge volatility in first 4 hours
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8163-8192 
4- Whole day actual trading between 8163-8265

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways for the last 10 sessions between 8134-8295. As both higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation in last 10 sessions and Nifty closed within this range at  8170.05 last Friday therefore still Nifty will understood sideways between 8134-8295.

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 8163-8192 
2- 8156-8177
3- 8112-8138

As supports are upto 8112 therefore finally its valid break down will be correction beginning confirmation towards the top of previous 28 Sessions sideways trading range highest(7992).  

Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day last Friday but intraday consolidation patterns were seen that day therefore until fresh selling will not develop in next week till then Nifty will not sustain below 8112.

Following resistances were updated on 29-05-2016 in "Minimum Target of Nifty at 8844.55":-

1- 8260-8315
2- 8470-8520
3- 8575-8652

Nifty faced resistance within 1st resistance range(8260-8315) in previous week and closed below it at 8170.05 after highest formation within it at 8294.95. As selling was also seen within it therefore 1st resistance range has become stronger and until Nifty will not sustain above 8315 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves also will not be seen. 

FOMC meet in next week and all the Global markets will react on it till next Thursday. Indian markets will also prepare near about or between 8112-8315 for post FOMC decisive moves in the next 3 sessions of coming week. As high volatility can not be ruled out due to FOMC therefore finally sustaining beyond 8112-8295 will produce next strong moves. 

As Nifty is trading and closing above the lowest of last support(8112) for the last 10 sessions therefore it has become most crucial support now and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next FOMC news led week for following decisive moves:- 

1- Finally sustaining above 8112 after complete follow up consolidation will mean fresh rally beginning towards the top(8295) of last 10 sessions trading range but decisive up moves will be seen only after valid break out of 1st resistance range(8315). 
2- Finally sustaining below 8112 after complete follow up selling will mean  little deeper but Short Term correction of that rally which started from 7715.80 on 24-05-2016 and completed at 8252.05 on 08-05-2016. Retracement levels of this rally are as follows:- 

1- 13.0%- 8182
2- 23.6%- 8125
3- 27.0%- 8107
4- 38.2%- 8046(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7983(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7920(Crucial)