Falling Trendline broken out 6th time on 22-07-2011

Technical Analysis and Research For 25-07-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(22-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Falling trend line begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338 and and since then Nifty tested and retraced 5 times earlier. Nifty again tested it on 22-07-2011 and hovered around 4 hours between 5606-5636 with intraday consolidation patterns

Sustaining above 5636 will be next rally first strong indication,as consolidation seen near it between 5606-5636 on 22-07-2011 therefore its break out and finally sustaining above possibility turned higher. 

Rally confirmation level is sustaining beyond 5636 within couple of sessions.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 25-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(22-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between- 5568-5581
2- Last 4 hours intraday consolidations between 5606-5636 but little selling at higher levels.

Conclusions

Nifty traded last 4 hours between resistance range of 5606-5636 and intraday charts are suggesting most of the time consolidations. Although minor selling felt at higher levels but expected that Nifty will finally sustain above 5636 and rally will be seen in the next week.

As news based violent global voltality is being seen therefore  sustaining beyond 5606-5636 will be watched first for next move confirmations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 22-Jul-2011 2718.66 2273.75 444.91

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 22-Jul-2011 1329.71 1086.66 243.05

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(22-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except Consumer durables.
3- Closing at last 10 days highest.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.93
Nifty P/E Ratio(22-Jul-2011): 20.57

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1686
BSE DECLINES : 1244
NSE ADVANCES : 913
NSE DECLINES : 498

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- -2205400(-32.37%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +299150(+2.74%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -3242100(-33.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +2815500(+44.59%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- -781700(-7.91%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +2557750(+93.41%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,633.95(+92.35Points & +1.67%)
Sensex- closed at 18,722.30(+286.11 Points & +1.55% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,153.90(+105.75 Points & +1.31%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,463.49(+69.19 Points & +0.82%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5736
R2 5689
R1 5661
Avg 5614
S1 5586
S2 5539
S3 5511

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5708     Trgt 2
H5 5691     Trgt 1
H4 5674     Long breakout
H3 5653     Go Short
H2 5646
H1 5639
L1 5626
L2 5619
L3 5612     Long
L4 5591     Short Breakout
L5 5574     Trgt 1
L6 5557     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5752
R2 5702
R1 5673
Avg 5623
S1 5594
S2 5544
S3 5515

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5725     Trgt 2
H5 5706     Trgt 1
H4 5688     Long breakout
H3 5666     Go Short
H2 5659
H1 5652
L1 5637
L2 5630
L3 5623     Long
L4 5601     Short Breakout
L5 5583     Trgt 1
L6 5564     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11610
R2 11470
R1 11390
Avg 11250
S1 11170
S2 11030
S3 10950

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11533     Trgt 2
H5 11482     Trgt 1
H4 11431     Long breakout
H3 11370     Go Short
H2 11350
H1 11330
L1 11289
L2 11269
L3 11249     Long
L4 11189     Short Breakout
L5 11137     Trgt 1
L6 11086     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading01trategy(Jul 25 to Jul 29,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5781
R2 5711
R1 5672
Avg 5602
S1 5563
S2 5493
S3 5454

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5743     Trgt 2
H5 5718     Trgt 1
H4 5692     Long breakout
H3 5662     Go Short
H2 5652
H1 5642
L1 5623
L2 5613
L3 5603     Long
L4 5573     Short Breakout
L5 5547     Trgt 1
L6 5522     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(22-07-2011)

Range bound between mentioned resistance range 5606-5636 for the last 4 hours with intraday consolidations but little selling also felt at higher levels therefore this range break out will be watched for next moves confirmations in next week and break out above 5636 possibility is higher as well.

Post-open Outlook(22-07-2011)

Indian markets opened and trading with good gains but not strong and under performing global markets immediately after opening today. Coming hours intraday charts will give confirmation of consolidation or distribution and break out of 5555-5600 will give next move first indiction but:-

1- Resistance between 5606-5636 above 5600
2- Support between 5535-5553 below 5555

Next trend confirmation 101 point range is 5535-5636 and expected that Nifty will trade between this range in couple of sessions and prepare for next moves. Next trend deciding broader range is 5496-5740 but break out of 5535-5636 will be almost confirmation of mentioned broader range crossing.

9 days range bound market and 3 following crucial ranges are for confirmation of next trend of Indian markets and break out of these ranges will give next moves confirmation one by one:-

1- 5555-5600(Indication consolidation/distribution)
2- 5535-5636(First indication next trend)
3- 5496-5740(Next trend confirmation)

As today intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore rally expectations are very much alive.

Strong Global cues inviting Bulls

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook For 22-07-2011

Nifty-Weekly Chart(21-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly  charts

1- Continuation Pattern Pennant formation
2- Falling Trend Line
3- 19 Months Rising Trend Line
4- MACD upward cross over

Conclusions

Bullish patterns in Weekly chart and weekly MACD upward cross are suggesting rally but correction is on for the last 3 weeks and high voltality is being seen in Indian and global markets. Daily new conflicting news from European countries and all the global markets are reacting on all that. As EU agrees on Greek aid therefore US Stocks advanced yesterday and in reactions all the Asian stocks are strong today morning.

As  Nifty consolidated between 5535-5553 yesterday and Global markets are rallying today morning therefore indian markets will also open with good gains and firstly trade between 5565-5605 as well as prepare for next moves. Immediate resistance above this range is between 5606-5636 and today intraday consolidation between mentioned both ranges will mean beginning of rally above 5650 after 9 days sideways market. Weekly MACD is showing positive market signals and today intraday consolidation will mean rally after 5650 crossing.

Strong global news and cues and possibility of Greece problem solution therefore expected that Indian markets will consolidate today and strong rally above 5650 will be seen within couple of sessions.

Strong Global cues inviting Bulls therefore Whole day positive markets and Green closing with good gains expected today and for precaution sustaining beyond next resistance range of 5606-5636 will be watched for confirmations.

US Stocks advance as EU agrees on Greek aid

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks advanced Thursday, following news that European leaders may have reached an agreement in Brussels to contain Greece's debt crisis.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/21/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 22-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(21-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Range bound trading between 5532.70-5578.90
2- Selling between- 5558-5573
3- Condolidation between- 5535-5553

Conclusions

Whole day range bound trading with higher levels selling and lower levels consolidations indications. Nifty has to struggle for up moves above 5580 and fast steep fall will be seen after sustaining below 5530.

Mentioned range(5530-5580) break out will be next trend strong indication and should be watched first for next moves confirmation tomorrow.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 21-Jul-2011 1627.54 2205.18 -577.64

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 21-Jul-2011 1223.92 815.56 408.36

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(21-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Doji like small Black Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except IT,FMCG and Power.
3- Range bound trading today.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(21-Jul-2011): 20.25

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1150
BSE DECLINES : 1730
NSE ADVANCES : 479
NSE DECLINES : 930

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +1532750(+28.68%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +689150(+6.38%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +1205800(+13.55%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- -377150(-5.49%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,541.60(-25.45 Points & -0.46%)
Sensex- closed at 18,436.19(-66.19 Points & -0.36% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,048.15(-60.05 Points & -0.74%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,394.30(-38.04 Points & -0.45 %)

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5630
R2 5608
R1 5576
Avg 5554
S1 5522
S2 5500
S3 5468

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5598     Trgt 2
H5 5585     Trgt 1
H4 5573     Long breakout
H3 5558     Go Short
H2 5553
H1 5548
L1 5539
L2 5534
L3 5529     Long
L4 5514     Short Breakout
L5 5502     Trgt 1
L6 5489     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11381
R2 11305
R1 11186
Avg 11110
S1 10991
S2 10915
S3 10796

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11262     Trgt 2
H5 11218     Trgt 1
H4 11174     Long breakout
H3 11120     Go Short
H2 11102
H1 11084
L1 11049
L2 11031
L3 11013     Long
L4 10959     Short Breakout
L5 10915     Trgt 1
L6 10871     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5614
R2 5596
R1 5568
Avg 5550
S1 5522
S2 5504
S3 5476

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5587     Trgt 2
H5 5576     Trgt 1
H4 5566     Long breakout
H3 5553     Go Short
H2 5549
H1 5545
L1 5536
L2 5532
L3 5528     Long
L4 5515     Short Breakout
L5 5505     Trgt 1
L6 5494     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(21-07-2011)

Nifty traded whole day between mentioned range(5530-5580) and slipped from higher levels after minor selling at higher levels between 5558-5573 but lower levels patterns are indicating consolidation also. US markets may slip today because selling intraday patterns in US markets intraday charts.

Sentiment may be depressed tomorrow morning and sustaining beyond today trading range will be next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(21-07-2011)

Following line was told in Pre-open Outlook today:-

"Nifty will first trade and prepare for next moves between 5530-5580 after flat to negative opening"

Nifty traded in first hour today between 5536.25-5578.90 and preparing for next moves and voltality is being seen within this range. Good seliing above this range and follow up selling today will mean sharp declines and follow up buying will mean beginning of fresh slow rally through consolidations above 5580.

Foundation of next moves will be laid between 5530-5580 in the coming hours today and its break out implications will be on above mentioned lines.

Pre-open Outlook(21-07-2011)

Technical Positions,today Outlook and next possibilities have already been explained in following topic in the Blog yesterday therefore not being repeated today:-

1- Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(21-07-2011)
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 21-07-2011

Nifty is volatile between little broader range of 5500-5650 for the last 7 sessions therefore next decisive moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond this range,as good support at lower levels and strong resistance at higher levels also therefore its break out not expected today.

Asian markets are little weak today morning after US markets Red closing yesterday therefore sentiment is subdued and Nifty will first trade and prepare for next moves between 5530-5580 after flat to negative opening and :-

1- 5530-5580 break out will be next moves first indication.
2- 5500-5650 break out will be next trend strong confirmation.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(21-07-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Bullish Formations

1- Double bottom at 5496
2- Good intraday consolidation between 5500-5573
3- Wave 3 range bound between 5496-5655

Bearish Formations

1- Lower top formations at 5655
2- Tripple top formation at 5655
3- Selling between 5595-5653
4- Engulfing Bearish Candle today.

Conclusions

Sub Wave-3 is on after corrective Sub wave-2 completion at 5496 and range bound between 5496-5655 for the last 7 sessions,Good support between 5500-5573 and resistance between 5595-5653 within this range. Implication of 5595-5653 break out are as follows:-

1- Sustaing above 5653 will be confirmation of impulsive Sub Wave-3 contunuation and upmoves will be expected after crossing 5740.

2- sustaining below 5496 will be confirmation of Sub Wave-3 failure and corrective Sub Wave-2 continuation and sharp down moves will be seen between 5195-5496

Conflicting global news flow and sentiments therefore news based voltality is being seen for the last few sessions. Next trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5496-5655 and should be watched first because lower levels support and higher levels resistance within mentioned 156 points range. Expected that Nifty will trade between mentioned range and firstly prepare for next moves near 5573.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 21-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(20-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5606-5636
2- Selling between 5575-5595
3- Last 1 hour mixed Patterns between 5556-5573

Conclusions

Whole day selling at higher levels. 5600-5650 was already resistance and again intraday selling seen between 5606-5636 and in this manner resistance range becomes stronger. 5500-5577 is strong support range but Nifty entered between it after again selling between 5575-5595. Niifty traded between 5556-5573 in last 1 hour with intraday mixed patterns.

Confirm selling between 5575-5650 and lower levels buying between 5500-5573. Indian markets are range bound,follow up buying/selling tomorrow and the coming sessions as well as break out of 5500-5650 will form next trend.

Indian markets are extremely global cues based,beginning of tomorrow market and first trading range will be decided after understanding tomorrow morning global cues and will be posted accordingly before opening.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Jul-2011 1876.93 1967.37 -90.44

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Jul-2011 1198.73 1178.25 20.48

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Whole day down moves and lost all the yesterday gains.
2- Black Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except Reality and FMCG.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.96
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Jul-2011): 20.34

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1171
BSE DECLINES : 1732
NSE ADVANCES : 467
NSE DECLINES : 962

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +1438000(+36.67%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- -721700(-6.26%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +1969100(+27.63%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- -495750(-6.56%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +1302600(+14.31%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- -461500(-13.06%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,567.05(-46.50 Points & -0.83%)
Sensex- closed at 18,502.38(-151.49 Points & -0.81% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at  8,108.20(-104.70 Points & -1.27%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,432.34(-30.58 Points & -0.36%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5713
R2 5679
R1 5623
PIVOT 5589
S1 5533
S2 5499
S3 5443

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5657     Trgt 2
H5 5636     Trgt 1
H4 5616     Long breakout
H3 5591     Go Short
H2 5583
H1 5575
L1 5558
L2 5550
L3 5542     Long
L4 5517     Short Breakout
L5 5497     Trgt 1
L6 5476     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5737
R2 5697
R1 5633
PIVOT 5593
S1 5529
S2 5489
S3 5425

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5673     Trgt 2
H5 5649     Trgt 1
H4 5626     Long breakout
H3 5597     Go Short
H2 5588
H1 5578
L1 5559
L2 5549
L3 5540     Long
L4 5511     Short Breakout
L5 5488     Trgt 1
L6 5464     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 21-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11583
R2 11493
R1 11336
PIVOT 11246
S1 11089
S2 10999
S3 10842

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11426     Trgt 2
H5 11370     Trgt 1
H4 11314     Long breakout
H3 11246     Go Short
H2 11224
H1 11201
L1 11156
L2 11133
L3 11111     Long
L4 11043     Short Breakout
L5 10987     Trgt 1
L6 10931     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(20-07-2011)

Weakness after good higher levels selling and entry into support range( 5500-5577). Follow up buying/selling tomorrow will decide next moves beyond 5500-5577.

Mid-session Outlook(20-07-2011)

Although Indian markets were trading with good gains but doubts were shown in following words and trend confirmation range of 5600-5650 was given in Post-open Outlook today:-

Indian markets does not opened much strong

5600-5650 broken down and Nifty is trading below 5600 after intraday selling betweeen 5606-5636. As this selling is between resistance range therefore sharp fall seen. 5505-5577 is strong support range therefore until Nifty will not slip below 5506 till then view will not be bearish.

Market is showing range bound character between 5500-5650 and follow up selling seen between 5577-5606 today therefore more down moves are possible but 5500-5577 is strong support and Nifty will not easily slip below 5577.

Post-open Outlook(20-07-2011)

Most of the Asian markets slipped from intraday higher levels and SSE(China) is in Red as well as Hangsang is flat therefore Indian markets does not opened much strong and trading between resistance range(5600-5650). Highly fluctuating global cues nowadays and markets are reacting to that therefore next moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond resistance range(5600-5650) between which nifty is trading since opening today.

Rally triggering by Strong Global Markets

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-07-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(19-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally(Sub-Wave-1) begun on 20-06-2011 from 5195
2- Correction of this rally started on 08-07-2011 from 5740 after good selling between 5700-5740 and Sub-Wave-2 started.
3- Nifty is trading between 5497-5653 for the last 6 sessions with intraday consolidation at lower levels between 5505-5577 and selling between 5600-5650.
4- Sustaining above 5653 will be confirmation of correction(Sub-Wave-2) completion at 5497 and beginning of Sub-Wave-3

Conclusions

Good consolidations at lower levels and strong global cues today mean that Nifty will trade at or above last 6 sessions range(5497-5653). As global cues finally turned strong therefore expected that Nifty will consolidate near or above 5653 today and will test next resistance range 5700-5740 in the coming sessions.

As sustaining above 5653 will be confirmation of correction(Sub-Wave-2) completion at 5497 and beginning of Sub-Wave-3 therefore rally above 5740 will also be expected after fresh consolidations between 5700-5740.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Jul-2011 1922.8 1629.51 293.29

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Jul-2011 802.67 1029.59 -226.92

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 20-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(19-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between-5558-5577
2- Last 2 hours mixed Patterns between-5615-5627.

Conclusions

Rally after lower levels intraday consolidation and today up moves are the result of strong global cues also therefore crossing and sustaining above 5640 will be confirmation of next rally for testing of resistance range between 5700-5740.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- White Candle.
2- Upmoves after lower levels consolidations.
3- Strong global cues led rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Jul-2011): 20.57

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1656
BSE DECLINES : 1226
NSE ADVANCES :  883
NSE DECLINES :  530

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- -397700(-9.21%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +935200(+8.75%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -669150(-8.44%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +1110750(+16.64%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +84050(+0.91%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +712150(+24.01%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,613.55(+46.50 Points & +0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,653.87(+146.83 Points & +0.79% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,208.20(+15.60 Points & +0.19%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,462.92(+68.97 Points & +0.82%)

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11566
R2 11472
R1 11408
Avg  11314
S1 11250
S2 11156
S3 11092

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11503     Trgt 2
H5 11467     Trgt 1
H4 11430     Long breakout
H3 11387     Go Short
H2 11372
H1 11358
L1 11329
L2 11315
L3 11300     Long
L4 11257     Short Breakout
L5 11220     Trgt 1
L6 11184     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5771
R2 5716
R1 5670
Avg  5615
S1 5569
S2 5514
S3 5468

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5726     Trgt 2
H5 5702     Trgt 1
H4 5679     Long breakout
H3 5651     Go Short
H2 5642
H1 5633
L1 5614
L2 5605
L3 5596     Long
L4 5568     Short Breakout
L5 5545     Trgt 1
L6 5521     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5711
R2 5669
R1 5641
Avg  5599
S1 5571
S2 5529
S3 5501

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5683     Trgt 2
H5 5667     Trgt 1
H4 5651     Long breakout
H3 5632     Go Short
H2 5625
H1 5619
L1 5606
L2 5600
L3 5593     Long
L4 5574     Short Breakout
L5 5558     Trgt 1
L6 5542     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(19-07-2011)

Indian markets were subdued since opening today and started to move after strong opening of European markets and strong US Futures trading.(Dow futures is +90 at this moment). Volatile moves are being seen due to fast changing global news flow and sentiments. Nifty crossed last 3 days range of 5595. Lower levels buying seen between 5558-5577 and mised patterns between 5605-5620 in last 2 hours of trading between resistance range of 5605-5740.

Strong up moves with lower levels intraday consolidation seen today.As these moves are the result of global cues also therefore crossing and sustaining above 5640 will be confirmation of next rally for testing of resistance range between 5700-5740.

Mid-session Outlook-3(19-07-2011)

Dow's futures is trading 63 points up and European markets are strong today therefore sharp break out and strong global markets led rally is being seen in Indian markets. 5595 broken out and sustaining above will be correction completion confirmation for next rally toward 5700.

Mid-session Outlook-2(19-07-2011)

Only 5573 was given was given for watching and Nifty is dancing around it since opening today. Last 3 days range is 5555-5595 and both selling and buying seen within this range. Today buying seen at lower levels also and follow up buying within 5573-5595 will mean break out of 5595.

Voltality betwen 5555-5595 in last 3 sessions and its break out will be next strong move confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(19-07-2011)

Only 5573 was given in Post-open Outlook today but Nifty is not ready to leave it and again hovering around after one hour moves above it. Selling indications at higher levels today and sustaining below it will mean down moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(19-07-2011)

Sentiment improved because Dow's futures is trading 38 points up and Asian markets also recovered from levels today morning therefore Nifty is trading yesterday selling range of 5573-5595. Any upmove confirmation will be sustaining above 5595 and that will be possible after complete consolidations. Fristly sustaining between 5573-5595 will be watched,as selling between this range therefore sustaining below it today will be down moves strong indication.

Nifty is hovering around 5573 today and sustaining beyond will be watched first for next moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(19-07-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(18-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Resistance at falling trend line
2- Lower top formation(Bearish pattern)
3- Support(5343)
4- Support(5178)

Conclusions

Nifty faced resistance and after that lower top formation(Bearish pattern) seen in last 3 seesions,as these two bearish confirmation on EOD chart therefore it is coorection confirmation and next supports are as follows:-

1- 5500-5550(Good consolidation)
2- 5320-5343(Gap)
3- 5250-5320(Good Consolidation)

Strong rally was seen in June 2011 between 5195-5740. Fibonacci retracement levels of this rally are as follows;-

13.0%-5669
23.6%-5611
27.0%-5592
38.2%-5531
50.0%-5467
61.8%-5403
70.7%-5354
76.4%-5323
78.6%-5311
88.6%-5257

Resistances

1- 5573-5595
2- 5605-5740
3- 5710-5740

Global markets are melting and bearish formations got confirmations after higher levels selling yesterday therefore more down moves possibility can not be ruled out. Indian markets are trapped between strong supports and resistances and today fresh selling will mean deeper correction and confirmation will be slipping below 5500.

Nifty will first trade between 5500-5573,Red closing and weaker market expected today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(18-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts:-

1- Selling between 5573-5595
2- Mixed Patterns between 5561-5567


Conclusions

Nifty traded last 2 days between 5561-5595 with intraday selling at higher levels between 5573-5595 and lower levels buying between 5566-5580 last Friday. Mixed patterns between 5561-5567 today. Higher levels selling today and tanking all the global markets today therefore possibility of Indian markets slipping turned higher now and expected that last 2 days range(5561-5595) will be broken down tomorrow.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- Higher levels selling.
3- Most Indices closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 20.40
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Jul-2011): 0.88

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1565
BSE DECLINES : 1326
NSE ADVANCES : 745
NSE DECLINES : 663

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +4350(+0.10%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +503100(+4.94%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +134500(+1.73%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +281100(+4.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,567.05(- 14.05 Points & -0.25%)
Sensex- closed at 18,507.04(-54.88 Points & -0.30% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,197.30(+22.10 Points & +0.27%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,393.95(+ 30.73 Points & +0.37%)

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11403
R2 11353
R1 11301
PIVOT 11251
S1 11199
S2 11149
S3 11097

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11351     Trgt 2
H5 11328     Trgt 1
H4 11305     Long breakout
H3 11277     Go Short
H2 11267
H1 11258
L1 11239
L2 11230
L3 11220     Long
L4 11192     Short Breakout
L5 11192     Trgt 1
L6 11146     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5649
R2 5629
R1 5600
PIVOT 5580
S1 5551
S2 5531
S3 5502

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5621     Trgt 2
H5 5610     Trgt 1
H4 5598     Long breakout
H3 5585     Go Short
H2 5580
H1 5576
L1 5567
L2 5563
L3 5558     Long
L4 5545     Short Breakout
L5 5533     Trgt 1
L6 5522     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5638
R2 5617
R1 5592
PIVOT 5571
S1 5546
S2 5525
S3 5500

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5613     Trgt 2
H5 5602     Trgt 1
H4 5592     Long breakout
H3 5579     Go Short
H2 5575
H1 5571
L1 5562
L2 5558
L3 5554     Long
L4 5541     Short Breakout
L5 5531     Trgt 1
L6 5520     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(18-07-2011)

Nifty traded most of the time between 5561-5595 with higher levels selling indications and lower levels buying signals. In fact market is not prepared for any side move therefore did not tanked despite deep Red European markets opening.

Global sentiment is bearish therefore slipping possibility can not be ruled out after higher levels selling indications today. and next strong moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond last 2 sessions trading range(5561-5595).

Although last 2 sessions Red closing but view is not bearish because lower levels consolidation signals in last 2 sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(18-07-2011)

Trading range of 5566-5595 was given in all the Pre-open and Post-open Outlooks today and Nifty is trading within this range for the last 3 hours.

Intraday patterns are mixed today therefore repeating same which has already told in all 3 previous looks;-

Watch sustaining beyond 5566-5595 for next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(18-07-2011)

Nifty is trading within mentioned range(5566-5595) since opening today. US Futures started to move down again after some recovery and Asian markets also slipping from intraday higher levels. Although Indian markets are outperforming global markets but uncertain global news flow and weaker global markets therefore sustaining above 5595 is must for next up moves confirmation .

NIFTY-JUL F&O-1ST BUYING OF 15-07-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JUL F & O(BOUGHT ON 15-07-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5584

Pre-open Outlook-2(18-07-2011)

US futures traded 67 points down today morning therefore Asian markets are trading negative and sentiment is depressed today. Bullish formations on EOD and Weekly charts but glogal markets mood completely dampened due to US futures led weakness in Asian markets therefore Indian markets will open in Red today.

Global cues led weakness is possible today therefore sustaining beyond last Friday trading range(5566-5595) will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmation.

Pre-open Outlook(18-07-2011)

US futures traded 67 points down today morning therefore Asian markets are trading negative and sentiment is depressed today. Bullish formations on EOD and Weekly charts but glogal markets mood completely dampened due to US futures led weakness in Asian markets therefore Indian markets will open in Red today.

Global cues led weakness is possible today therefore sustaining beyond last Friday trading range(5566-5595) will be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmation.

Bullish Pattern & Trend deciding 2 Crucial Trend Lines

Technical Analysis and Research For Jul 18 to Jul 22,2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling trend line which gave resistance 4 times in last 8 previous months.
2- Rising trend line which gave support 7 times in last 19 previous months.
3- Continuation pattern big Pennant formmation

Conclusions

Break out and sustaining beyond these 2 trend lines will give confirmation to long term trend. Nifty tested falling trend line in previous week but retraced sharply and expected that up moves will be seen in the beginning of coming week and it will be retested again. Next 2 resistances are as follows:-

1- 5630-5654
2- 5705-5730

Sustaining above 5730 will be falling trend line break out confirmation and also expected that this time Nifty will sustain above 5730 and rally will be seen because continuation Pattern big Pennant formmation also which is telling for continuation of on going uptrend and this pattern is Bullish in on going market.

Confirmation is must therefore above mentioned resistances should be watched also.

Bullish Markets Strong Indications from Weekly Charts

Technical Analysis and Research For Jul 18 to Jul 22,2011

Nifty-Weekly Chart(15-Jul-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- ABC correction of Wave-4 completed.
2- Wave-5 is on.
3- Sub Wave-3 is on.
4- Weekly MACD line intersected above the above the Average line and given buying signal but both lines are below zero line therefore telling that trend is weak.
5- Resistance at falling trend line(5654) which started from the top on ongoing rally and Nifty retraced 4 times from this line.

Conclusions

Impulsive Wave-5 is on after completion of corrective 'ABC' Wave-4. Weekly MACD has also given positive signal and Sub Wave-3 is on after completion of correction. Bullish markets strong indications from Weekly charts therefore upmoves are expected and rally confirmation is sustaining above next resistance of falling trend line(5654) which produced resistance 4 times earlier.