8269 will decide the life and depth of on going correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 27 to Apr 30,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C' continuation with recent bottom formation at 8273.35 on 24-04-2015
10- Long Term Trend 200 Day EMA(today at 8186)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern formations in 67 sessions with Neckline at 8269

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 for the last such long 27 sessions.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 21 to Apr 24,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8419-8460 on 21-04-2015
2- Mixed Patterns between 8371-8449 on 22-04-2015
3- Support between 8284-8318 on 22-04-2015
4- Selling between 8483-8504 on 23-04-2015
5- Mixed Patterns between 8361-8455 on 23-04-2015 
6- Mixed Patterns between 8321-8366 on 24-04-2015
7- Consolidation between 8274-8304 on 24-04-2015
8- 4 Sessions most time trading between 8321-8460 
9- 4 Sessions actual trading between 8274-8504 

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Last 4 sessions most time trading between 8321-8460 with mixed Patterns formations within it therefore valid break out of this range will be first strong indication od next big moves. As selling above it up to 8504 and consolidation below it up to 8274 therefore sustaining beyond 8274-8504 will be confirmation of next big trend.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 for the last such long 27 sessions.
3- Long Term Trend is up and its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8186.

Now Wave-'C' of 'ABC' correction continuation and no indication of its completion yet. Wave-'A' corrected 850 points and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then on going Wave-'C' which started from 8844 may correct up to 7994(8844-850). 

Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 for the last 27 sessions with recent bottom formation at 8273.35 in previous trading session(24-04-2015) which is just above 8269. Although 56 points immediate fast recovery after after bottom formation at 8273.35 on 24-04-2015 but sustaining beyond 8269 should be firstly watched in the coming week for the confirmation of Intermediate Term Trend in following manner:-

1- Sustaining below 8269 will mean Intermediate Term Trend turning down and correction continuation confirmation.
2- Sustaining above 8269 will mean sideways Intermediate Term Trend confirmation between 8269-8844.

Last 4 Sessions most time trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8321-8460. As some selling just above it up to 8504 and consolidation just below it up to 8274 therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves between 8274-8504 and should be firstly watched in next week.

As Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations in last 67 sessions with Neckline at 8269 which will decide Intermediate Term Trend also therefore once sustaining below 8269 will mean high possibility of deeper correction. In this situation Long Term Trend will be at stake because its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8186 which is only 83 points below 8269 therefore 8269 has become most crucial and next trend decider.  

Correction is on,no confirmation of its completion yet and 8269 will decide the life and depth of on going correction. It should be kept in mind that once sustaining below or forceful breaking down of 8269 will mean emergence of deeper correction possibility therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in next week.

Sustaining beyond 8284-8504 will decide Next Trend

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(24-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8583-8504
2- Selling between 8408-4455
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Most time trading between 8361-8455
5- Whole day actual trading between 8361-8504

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 22-04-2015 in "Pull Back Rally possibility above 8469":-

1- As mixed patterns were seen at higher levels in last 2 sessions therefore
2- firstly sustaining above the highest of last 2 sessions(8469) is must for the confirmation of Pull Back Rally 
3- Mixed Patterns between 8419-8460 on 21-04-2015
4- Mixed Patterns between 8371-8449 on 22-04-2015

Pull Back Rally was seen above 8469 immediately after opening but Nifty could not sustain at higher levels and slipped fast after intraday highest formation at 8504.95.

As mixed patterns were seen between 8371-8460 in last 2 sessions and Nifty traded most time within this range between 8361-8455 today with mixed patterns formations again within this range therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves within or near about 8361-8460. As buying was seen below 8361 between 8284-8318 on 22-04-2015 and selling was seen above 8460 between 8583-8504 on 23-04-2015 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8284-8504 will decide next trend.

Pull Back Rally possibility above 8469

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(23-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 21 & Apr 22,2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8419-8460 on 21-04-2015
2- Slow down moves with buying indications on 21-04-2015
3- Mixed Patterns between 8371-8449 on 22-04-2015
4- Slow down moves with buying indications on 22-04-2015
5- Support between 8284-8318 on 22-04-2015
6- Strong up moves in last hours on 22-04-2015 
7- Bullish Hammer Candle formation on 22-04-2015 
8- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8284-8469 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Importance of 8352.70 and 8269 was updated in following topic on 21-04-2015:-

4 Crucial levels will decide the Life of on going Correction

Although Nifty slipped below 8352.70 but recovered 144 points after getting supports just above 8269 at 8284.70 and Bullish Hammer Candle formation also on 22-04-2015 therefore market saved today from 2 most Bearish following patterns:-

1- 8 Months long Bearish Broadening Rising Channel(Closing above lower rising line of Channel at 8352.70) 
2- Support and strong up moves above the Neckline(8269) of Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern. 

Although Nifty slipped 185 points from higher levels in last 2 sessions but as such selling patterns were not seen and lower levels supports with consolidation patterns were also seen in last 2 sessions therefore first indication of correction completion and Pull Back Rally beginning possibility. 

As mixed patterns were seen at higher levels in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining above the highest of last 2 sessions(8469) is must for the confirmation of Pull Back Rally beginning and fresh up moves towards following resistances:-

1- 8522-8564
2- 8640-8468
3- 8690-8750 
4- 8802-8844

4 Crucial levels will decide the Life of on going Correction

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(22-04-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (21-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 8 Months rally in Broadening Rising Channel
2- Retesting of lower rising line of Broadening Rising Channel on 21-04-2015 
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8180)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 11-04-2015 in Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week:-

1- Broadening Rising Channel formation started on 08-08-2015 and since then rally continuation within this channel. 
2- As Rising Channel therefore it is a Bearish pattern and its valid breaking down will mean possibility of deeper correction like 2008 because Channel is such 8 months long. 
3- Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore view is cautious and sustaining beyond lower rising line of this channel should be watched in the coming weeks for first strong signal of next Long Term Trend.

Lower rising line of Broadening Rising Channel was retested at today lowest(8352.70) and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions because sustaining below it will mean emergence of deeper correction strong possibility.

Importance of 8269 and 7994 has already been updated in following Weekly Analysis topic on 18-04-2015:-

Correction Continuation & 3 crucial levels are Big Trend Decider of Nifty 

8269 is Neckline of 64 sessions Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern and its valid break down will mean deeper correction confirmation. As 7994 is 100% of Wave-'A' therefore correction continuation possibility up to this level is alive

Correction is on,its continuation is expected and no signal of its completion yet. Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8180 and finally sustaining it beyond will give correction completion / deeper correction confirmation therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. Importance of following 4 Levels have been updated above and expected that Bulls and Bears fight will be seen near about these 4 Crucial levels as well as finally sustaining beyond these levels will decide the life of on going correction:-

1- 8352.70
2- 8269
3- 8180
4- 7994

Finally sustaining above 8352.70 will mean strong indication of correction completion and sustaining below 7994 will mean deeper correction confirmation after slipping below 7961. As Wave-5 begun from 7961 and once slipping below it will mean deeper correction confirmation because that will be Long Term Trend turning down confirmation also after sustaining below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8180).  

Correction continuation with Technical Bounce back Possibility 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(21-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Sharp fall immediately after opening
2- 4 Hours Selling patterns formation between 8522-8564 
3- 100 Points down moves after 4 hours selling
3- Whole day actual trading between 8422-8619

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 50 points slipping within first 6 minutes and after that more than 4 hours selling between 8522-8564 therefore 100 points down moves in last hours and closing near the lower levels of the day. 

Correction is on and it continuation is still expected but very short term indicators have turned oversold therefore technical bounce back possibility can not be ruled out. As 8522-8564 has developed immediate resistance therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 8564 and until Nifty will not sustain above 8564 till then next rally will not be considered.