8695 Will decide Depth of Correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 02 to Feb 06,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

 Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)
3- Wave-2(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)
4- Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-v of Wave-3 started after correction completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 
2- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,996.60 on 30-01-2015
3- 143.45(1.60%) correction on 30-01-2015 with Bearish Engulfing Candle formation

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

All trends are up and Bullish rally is very much on and new life time high formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015 but immediate after that 1.60% correction was seen which will be understood intraday/Very Short Term correction. Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation and this wave will be correction after Short Term correction confirmation. Wave-v of Wave-3 started from 7961.35 and correction started after high formation at 8,996.60,Fibonacci retracement levels of this Wave are as follows:- 

[0.130] 8,862.0200(Done)
[0.236] 8,752.2800
[0.270] 8,717.0800
[0.382] 8,601.1300
[0.500] 8,478.9800
[0.618] 8,356.8200
[0.707] 8,264.6800
[0.764] 8,205.6700
[0.786] 8,182.8900
[0.886] 8,079.3700

Bearish Engulfing Candle formation on 30-01-2015 which signifies that the uptrend has been hurt and the bears may be gaining strength. Next supports are as follows:-

1- Supports between 8796-8815
2- Gap support between 8775-8795
3- Supports between 8727-8755
4- Supports between 8695-8720

As Short Term Oscillators were overbought after strong rally in last 10 sessions and sentiment turned heated after Dow Jones 225 points rally on 29-01-2015 therefore intraday correction was seen on 30-01-2015 for cooling down. As Bearish Engulfing Candle formation which closed at 5 sessions lowest after 5 sessions lowest formation therefore view is cautious and firstly sustaining beyond lowest of above supports will decide deeper correction beginning below(8695) or correction completion above(8695).

2 Supports just below today Lowest

Mid-session Outlook-2(30-01-2015)

Firstly 176 points sharp fall from intraday higher levels in first 2 and half hours and after that sideways market today. Intraday correction is being seen today and Nifty is trading between 8820-8855 for last 2 hours which is near the lower levels of last 4 sessions. Next supports just below today lowest are as follows:-

1- Supports between 8796-8815
2- Gap support between 8775-8795

Firstly sustaining beyond 8775-8855 should be watched now for:-

1- Intraday/Very Short Term Correction completion above 8855
2- Short Term Correction continuation below 8775

As good consolidation between 8862-8893 yesterday therefore expected that Nifty will not easily sustain below 8862 as well as will get supports near about above mentioned 2 supports. Today intraday charts have also not shown as such good selling therefore expected that today started correction will complete within next 2/3 sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(30-01-2015)

As Short Term Oscillators were overbought after strong rally in last 10 sessions and sentiment turned heated after Dow Jones 225 points rally of yesterday therefore intraday correction is being seen immediately after opening today. Intraday correction may retrace upto following levels:-

[0.130]- 8,874.7800
[0.236]- 8,886.0200
[0.270]- 8,889.6200
[0.382]- 8,901.4900

As good consolidation between 8862-8893 yesterday therefore Nifty will not easily sustain below 8862 as well as expected that Nifty will get supports within or near about this range. At present intraday charts of first 2 hours are suggesting that it is only that correction which should complete within 2/3 sessions.

Rally continuation in Uncharted Territory after 8880 broken Out

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(30-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Jan 29,2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- Testing of 8880 in last 3 sessions
2- Consolidation near about 8880 in last 3 sessions.
3- Selling at higher levels on 28-01-2015
3- 3 Sessions actual trading between 8826-8985

 Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Importance of 8880 was updated in following topic on 24-01-2015:-

Sustaining of Nifty above 8880 will mean Next 20 months Rally

Nifty tested 8880 all the next 3 trading sessions after the posting of above topic and consolidated near about 8880 in all the last 3 sessions as well as Nifty most time hovered around 8880 today.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours consolidation between 8862-8893(Immediate Supports)
2- Nifty most time hovered around 8880.
3- Sharp up and 8880 broken out confirmation in last hour.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8862-8966

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Most time hovered around 8880 and forcefully broken out in last hour after more than 5 hours consolidation and strong indication of fresh rally beginning today.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day on 28-01-2015 but we were not Bearish because lower levels good consolidation patterns and supports were also seen therefore we posted following topic yesterday;-

Rally Continuation

Although Most Asian markets were in deep Red after Dow Jones closing 195 points down but in that Bearish sentiment also we were not Bearish therefore we told following lines within 1st hour today in Post-open Outlook(29-01-2015):-

1- until Nifty will not sustain below 8790 till then even Very Short Term correction will not be considered 
2- good consolidation patterns formations yesterday
3- Until complete selling patterns will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen.

We have posted only Bullishness in all the previous Outlooks and strong rally is very much on. As next resistances are between 8947-8985 which are just above today highest therefore some more consolidation is required for next up moves but expected that finally rally will remain continued in uncharted territory because good consolidation near about 8880 in last 3 sessions and its forceful break out confirmation in last hour today.

Post-open Outlook(29-01-2015)

As Dow Jones closed 195 points down after FOMC statement therefore and in reaction all the Asian markets are in Red,resultant weakness in Indian markets. Reaction of FOMC statement has to be firstly understood and until Nifty will not sustain below 8790 till then even Very Short Term correction will not be considered because good consolidation patterns formations yesterday. Until complete selling patterns will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen.

Rally Continuation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(29-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between 8892-8916 (Immediate Supports)
2- Selling between 8947-8985 (Immediate Resistances)
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 2 hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 8875-8985

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Neither we were Bullish nor Bearish for today market therefore we posted following topic for today trading and Nifty closed flat at 8914.30 within mentioned trading range(8790-8925) in the given topic:-

Key of Next Trend between 8790-8925

Although Nifty could not sustain at higher levels after strong intraday rally and higher levels selling patterns were also seen but lower levels good consolidation patterns and supports were also seen therefore expected that rally will remain continued despite today closing near the lower levels of the day.

Key of Next Trend between
 8790-8925
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(28-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8852-8860
2- Buying between 8826-8841
3- 1 Hour Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8826-8925

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Indian markets under performed immediately after opening therefore we told following line at 09:15 AM in Post-open Outlook(27-01-2015):-

view is cautious and firstly sustaining beyond 8790-8880 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. 

Although closing near the highs of the day after last hour sharp rally but today intraday charts are showing Mixed Patterns formations because following both buying and selling patterns formations today:-

1- Nifty slipped into Red after more than 1 hour hour selling.
2- Almost 1 hour lower levels buying.
3- Last 1 Hour Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

Following line was told on 24-02-2014 in 'Sustaining of Nifty above 8880 will mean Next 20 months Rally':-

As some selling was seen just below 8863 last Friday therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required and once sustaining above 8880 will mean fresh rally

As follow up selling below 8863 and and Bearish Rising Channel pattern formations above 8863 therefore sustaining above 8880 is must for fresh rally despite closing above 8880 today.  

Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive after Mixed patterns formations today and expected that Nifty will trade and firstly prepare for next decisive moves between 8790-8925 and valid break out above 8925 after follow up consolidation will mean next fresh phase of up moves. As minor selling till now therefore at present only Very Short Term correction  will be considered after valid break out below 8790.

Post-open Outlook(27-01-2015)

Although positive Indian markets but under performing therefore view is cautious and firstly sustaining beyond 8790-8880 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations.