Confirmation from Only One Level will mean Fresh Strong Rally 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 13 to Jul 17 ,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally with recent top formation at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its correction continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that its 5 waves correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Pull Back Rally continuation with its Wave-i completion at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and its corrective Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015.

Wave-5 with correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
3- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
4- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
5- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
6- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
7- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-i(8561.35 on 07-07-2015)
9- Wave-ii continuation with its recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-5 begun after Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 which completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 which is just below the bottom of Wave-4(7961.35) and strong Pull Back Rally begun which is a strong indication of correction completion.

Wave-i(Pull Back Rally) started after Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 which terminated at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015 and now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015,till now no confirmation of its completion. 

Retracement levels of Wave-i(7940-8561)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 13.0%- 8480
2- 23.6%- 8414
3- 27.0%- 8393
4- 38.2%- 8323(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 8250(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 8177(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 8121
8- 76.4%- 8086
8- 78.6%- 8072
10-88.6%- 8010

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial because Nifty tested and formed bottom near about it in last 2 sessions and it finally sustaining it beyond will form next big moves. 

3 confirmations of strong rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
3- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation
4- Bullish Flag Pattern broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it
5- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it 
6- Last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Following 3 confirmations of strong rally after correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015:-

1- The correction which started from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 was in Bullish Flag Pattern which has been broken out and last 15 sessions sustaining above it therefore first confirmation of correction completion and fresh Bullish market beginning.
2- As last 16 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224) therefore Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and fresh rally beginning as well.
3- Falling Trend Line of correction broken out and last 15 sessions closing above it therefore correction completion confirmation.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 09 & Jul 10,2015)

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Minor selling at higher levels on 09-07-2015
2- More than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 09-07-2015
3- Consolidation between 8316-8334(Immediate Supports) on 10-07-2015
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 10-07-2015
5- 2 Sessions actual trading between 8316-8377 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although higher levels minor selling on 09-07-2015 but good consolidation patterns formations in last 2 sessions also therefore technically strong indication of fresh rally in next week but Indian completely under performed Global markets in following manner:-

1- Shanghai closed more than 11% up in last 2 sessions. 
2- Hang Seng closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions. 
3- Most European markets traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 5% up in last 2 sessions.
4- Dow's Futures traded during Indian trading hours and closed more than 300 points up in last 2 sessions.

When there was problems from Greece and China then Indian market moved down with Global markets but did not participated strong Global markets rally and remained flat in last 2 sessions therefore in this manner Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions. 

As last 2 sessions technical patterns and markets psychology are showing contrary indications therefore valid break out of last 2 sessions actual trading range(8316-8377) will decide next decisive moves. Next supports are lying between 8300-8325 and finally sustaining beyond 8300-8377 will decide next big trend therefore should be firstly watched in next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All Trends are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend turned up after last 16 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8224).

As above mentioned 3 confirmations of fresh strong rally and last 2 sessions testing as well as closing above 38.2% retracement levels(8323) therefore 38.2% retracement levels at 8323 has become most crucial support,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend.

EOD Charts are suggesting high possibility of fresh rally after Wave-ii correction completion at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015 and last 2 sessions intraday consolidation patterns formations are also suggesting it but Indian markets completely under performed Global markets and selling on the back of such strong Global cues led heated sentiments can not be ruled out in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8300-8377 should be watched for next trend confirmations in next week.

4000 Points rally(5118.85-9119.20) correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Wave-i begun which completed at 8561.35 on 07-07-2015,now its correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8315.40 on 10-07-2015. Confirmation of on going correction completion is still required through sustaining beyond 8300-8377 and should be firstly watched in next week,once sustaining above only one level(8377) will mean fresh strong rally beginning towards and above life time high(9119.20) after 4000 points rally correction completion 

Indian markets slipping Despite Strong Global markets

Mid-session Outlook(10-07-2015)

At the opening time of Indian markets all the Asian markets were Green and following most Bullish positions of some markets were also seen:-

1- Shanghai was trading more than 5% up 
2- Hang Seng was trading more than 2% up 
3- Dow's Futures was trading more than 150 points up 

As such strong Global market therefore Indian markets opened with some gains but could not sustain at higher levels and started slipping after highest formation at 8376.35. Recent lowest formation at 8323 and next supports are just below it between 8300-8325.

As same formations also today like yesterday that Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in most heated sentiments therefore firstly valid break out of 8300-8374 should be watched for next trend confirmation which may be for big moves also. 

Just go through yesterday posted following topic again to understand intraday charts analysis with market psychology. 

Firstly Watch 8323-8374 for Next Trend Confirmation

Firstly Watch 8323-8374 for Next Trend Confirmation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling at higher levels
2- More than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day trading between 8323-8400

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although more than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel with minor selling at higher levels but Indian markets completely under performed Global markets in following manner:-

1- At the opening time of Indian markets Hang Seng was more than 700 points up and Shanghai was in Green but Indian markets moved into Red within 15 minutes after little positive opening and in this manner under performed immediately after opening.
2- All the Asian markets closed after strong recovery from lower levels and following closing was of main markets:-

1- Shanghai closed 5.79% up 
2- Hang Seng closed 3.73% up 

When above 2 markets were down yesterday then Indian markets were sharply down but today  Indian markets traded flat to negative despite such strong closing of these markets therefore in this manner completely under performed today.  
3- All the European markets opened and traded more than 1% up and Dow's Futures was also most time more than 150 points up but no positive reaction from Indian markets and Red closing after slipping therefore in this manner completely under performed today.  

As such high under performance by Indian markets today therefore possibility of whole day selling on the back of strong Global cues led sentiment can not be ruled out today. Only slight hope for the Bulls is more than 5 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore firstly valid break out of today actual trading range(8323-8374) should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmation.

Firstly watch next supports amid Negative News Globally crashing like situation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(09-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly higher levels Mixed Patterns formations
2- Consolidation and supports between 8342-8364(Immediate Supports)
3- Follow up consolidation after recovery
4- Slipping in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 8342-8457

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the lower levels of the day after most Bearish Asian cues led huge gap down opening and 1.74% Red closing but selling patterns were not seen today and on the contrary consolidation with lower levels supports were also seen therefore view will not be Bearish because today huge fall was on the back of most negative Chinese news based and not on technical.

If fresh selling develops on the back of such most Bearish news flow and Nifty sustains below today lowest then Nifty will be understood sideways between 7941-8561 and down moves within this range will be considered because that will be confirmation of;-

1- Whipsaw(false signal) of Neckline break out of 31 sessions Inverted Head and Shoulders Bullish Pattern.
2- Whipsaw(false signal) break out of 54 Sessions trading range(7941-8505)

As following positive developments in previous weeks therefore view is not Bearish and still expected that fresh rally will develop in the coming sessions after follow up consolidation:-

1- whole correction from 9119.20 to 7940.30 was with Bullish Flag Pattern formation.
2- Last 14 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8222).

As series of negative news flow therefore Globally crashing like situation and all the Asian markets closed from 1.10% to 5.91% down today and now Dow Jones is also in Red by more than 200 points,if such fall is seen in Asian markets tomorrow also then firstly following supports should be watched:- 

1- 8300-8325
2- 8196-8261

Just Watch valid break out of 8387-8550 under the shadow of Chinese problems   

Pre-open Outlook(08-07-2015)

As sudden eruption of Chinese problems therefore all the Asian markets are 1% to 4% down today morning and in reaction huge gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Chinese problems impact on Indian markets has to be understood yet and Nifty will remain sideways between 8387-8550 as well as prepare for next decisive moves within this range therefore valid break out of this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.

Finally Rally Expectations above Today Highest after Follow up Consolidations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling Patterns between 8540-8550(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8484-8561

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing with minor losses but higher levels selling patterns formations were also seen therefore view is cautious and follow up technical positions formations will be firstly watched tomorrow for the confirmation of next decisive moves because last confirmation is still required through sustaining above 8505 and should be firstly watched for next decisive big rally.

As Greece news led Global markets uncertainty is still alive therefore volatility may remain high and traders should be careful because in such situations both side Stop Loss are also triggered.

Whatsoever volatility but Nifty will remain sideways between 8387-8550 and prepare for next decisive moves within this range. As those Bullish patterns formations which have been updated in both previous Outlooks therefore still expected that finally rally will remain continued above today highest(8561.35) after follow up consolidations despite 1% to 2% fall at this moment in all US and European markets.

Rally continuation amid Greece news led high volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(07-07-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 8387-8438(Immediate Supports)
2- Up moves beginning after less down opening of European markets
3- Up moves amid Greece news led depressed most sentiments. 
4- Whole day actual trading between 8387-8533

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As 'No' victory with big margin in Greece referendum therefore emergence of uncertainty and following negative trading of global markets was seen today:-

1- Most Asian markets were trading more than 1.5% down
2- European markets Futures were more than 3% negative.
3- Dow's Futures Red trading by more than 200 points.

As most dampened sentiments therefore huge gap down opening and more than 3 hours sideways trading between 8387-8438 which finally proved lower levels supports today. European markets Futures were more than 3% down today morning but markets opened .50% to 1.5% down at 12:30 PM which generated the rays of hopes in the mind of Bulls and up moves started which remain continued til the end of trading.

As lower levels supports amid most depressed sentiments and up moves continuation despite all around Global markets weakness and negative news flow as well therefore it is clear that Indian markets have shown strength today.

54 Sessions trading between 7941-8505 and today closing above it after recovery of 146 points amid most Bearish sentiments therefore emergence of strong signal for fresh up moves beginning after confirmation of sustaining above 8505.

Following lines were told yesterday in Blasting Rally towards and above Life Time High(9119.20):-

1- If 'No' comes from Greece referendum today Mid Night then a down can not be ruled out next Monday but Nifty will not sustain at lower levels 
2- emergence of strong indication of correction completion confirmations last Friday
3- emergence of correction completion strong signal at the bottom of correction at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015
4- once valid break out of 8505 will mean strong blasting rally.
5- once valid break out of 8490 will mean strong blasting rally.
6- strong Blasting rally will be seen in the coming week after all trend turning up

As Nifty could not sustain at lower levels today despite all around weakness and closed above 8505 therefore expected that rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations at higher levels but Greece issues have not resolved yet and its uncertainty led volatility may remain high.

Blasting Rally towards and above Life Time High(9119.20)

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 06 to Jul 10,2015)

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Falling Trend line of correction broken out
8- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8497.75 on 03-07-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

5 Waves of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally continuation with full retracement of Wave-4(8489.55) after recent top formation at 8497.75 on 03-07-2015 but closing just below at 8484.90. It means that emergence of strong indication of correction completion confirmations last Friday.

Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
3- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 
4- Last 11 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8214).

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation and last 11 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8214)therefore Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and emergence of correction completion strong signal at the bottom of correction at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015.

54 Sessions trading between 7941-8505

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 54 Sessions trading between 7941-8505

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

54 Sessions trading between 7941-8505 and last Friday closing just below the top of this range at 8484.90,once valid break out of 8505 will mean strong blasting rally.

Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern formations

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jul-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Inverted Head and Shoulders Bullish Pattern formations in last 31 sessions

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern formations in last 31 sessions with its Neckline at 8490 and last Friday closing just below it at 8484.90, once valid break out of 8490 will mean strong blasting rally.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All Trends are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend turned up after last 11 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8214).

As following patterns formations therefore strong blasting rally is expected:-

1- Whole correction from 9119.20 to 7940.30 is in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 
2- Falling Trend line of correction broken out
3- Inverted Head and Shoulders Bullish Pattern formations in last 31 sessions
4- Long Term Trend turning up confirmations after last 11 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8214).

As above 4 Bullish developments therefore expected that finally 54 Sessions trading range (7941-8505) will be broken out above 8505 and strong Blasting rally will be seen in the coming week after all trend turning up.

If 'No' comes from Greece referendum today Mid Night then a down can not be ruled out next Monday but Nifty will not sustain at lower levels and finally rally will develop towards and above life time high(9119.20) after whole rally(5118.85-9119.20) correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015