Finally Rally above 5458 after Volatility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Mar 05 to Mar 09,2012)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD,weekly and Monthly charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 5 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in next week:-

1- Blasing Rally above 5458
2- Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week
3- For Decisive Break out more Preparation within 5298-5458
4- Correction Fate Decider 5340-5415

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long term trend is up,Short term trend is down and fate of next long term moves deciding Intermediate term trend was sideways between 5268-5458 in previous week. All the possibilities regarding break out side direction and supports/resistances have already been discussed in above topics.

It is clear from previous week intraday charts analysis that good supporta at lower levels. Although selling at higher levels but intraday patterns of previous week are suggesting consolidation formations therefore breaking out and sustaining above 5458 is high.

Assembly election results will be declared on 06-03-2012 as well as negative results for Congress will certainly badly hamper sentiment therefore coming sessions may be highly volatile also but until Nifty will not sustain below 5268 till then any decisive down move will not be considered.

Expected that Nifty will not sustain below 5120 and Long term trend will not turn down in worst sentiments also but on the other hand very much expected also that Nifty will not sustain below 5268 and finally rally above 5458 will be seen in the coming week/weeks

Blasting Rally above 5458

It is clear from both previous topics that Indian markets are technically not prepared for any side decisive break out and weekly closing in the center of previous week range after both selling at higher levels and buying at lower levels. Indian markets will prepare in the coming 1/2 sessions for next moves and follow up buying/selling will trigger break out/down.

Rally begun on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 and correction started from 5629.95 after 1098.80 Nifty Points rally in 45 sessions. Immediate technical positions of this rally are as follows:-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

1- Resistance after 3 days selling between 5588-5625
2- Strong support between 5340-5415
3- Mixed trading positions between 5268-5458 in previous week.

Only one resistance range above previous week trading range and sustaining above 5458 will be confirmation of correction completion as well as testing of above mentioned resistance range with high possibility of sustaining as well as blasting rally also above 5625 because fresh impulsive wave will develop above 5458 after correction completion.

Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week

Mixed trading positions in previous week 5268-5458 and Assembly election results will be declared on 06-03-2012 as well as negative results for Congress will certainly badly hamper sentiment therefore coming sessions may be highly volatile and follow up selling after any nervous news may result slipping below 5340/5268 also. Keep in mind all following 7 Supports of 2012 Rally with their strength:-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415

Sustaining below 5340/5268 will mean retracement of 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

Sustaining below 5340 will mean intermediate term trend turning down and that will mean:-


1- 3 weeks to 3 months down trend and more down moves possibility within this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.

Most Important Support Range

Next support range(5120-5190) below 5340 is most important and long term trend decider also because it is containing little above and within it following crucial levels:

1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day EMA - today at 5192
3- 200-Day EMA- today at 5185
4- 200-Day SMA- today at 5167

Sustaining below 5340 will be first strong indication and sustaining below 5268 will be confirmation of deeper correction also and above mentioned levels will prove most helpful in thst situation.

For Decisive Break out more Preparation within 5298-5458

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb 27 to Mar 01,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1-Pennant Formation in 5 days intraday chart.
2- Higher Bottoms formations
3- Lower tops formations
4- Panic bottom at 5268 on 27-02-2012
5- Support at 5298
6- Top at 5458
7- Consolidation between 5298-5332
8  Selling between 5422-5458
9- Positive divergence in MACD
10- 5 Days trading between 5268-5458

Conclusions from 5 days intra day chart analysis 

Nifty traded between 5268-5458 and technical positions within this range will decide big moves after the break out of this range because Intermediate term trend decider 5340 is within this range.

Top of 5 days range is at 5458,bottom is at 5268 and weekly closing is at 5359 which is in the centre of both these levels. Selling at higher levels and buying at lower levels is clearly visible in 5 days intraday chart therefore Indian markets are not technically prepared for any side break out and more preparation is required in the coming 1/2 sessions for decisive break out.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next direction between 5298-5458. 

Correction Fate Decider 5340-5415

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally above Rising Trendline.
2- 3 Sessions Selling.
3- Correction confirmation after Rising Trendline broken down.
4- Whole week trading near 5340-5415.
5- Weekly Closing at 5359.35 within 5340-5415.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on after 3 days selling at the top of rally. Long Tern trend is up,Short term trend is down and Intermediate term trend is sideways.

Sustaining beyond 5340 will decide the fate of Intermediate term trend and its importance has already been told more than 15 times in previous week and Nifty hovered it around whole week also.

Following lines were told on 26-02-2012 in the Weekly Outlook(Feb 27 to Mar 02,2012):-

1- strong supports also between 5340-5415 therefore complete distribution is must for slipping below 5340
2- Indian markets will firstly prepare minimum 2/3 sessions within sideways moves

Indian markets were sideways in previous week and hovered around 5340-5415 as well as closed also at 5359.35 within mentioned range.

Our Previous week projection proved 100% accurate and sustaining beyond 5340-5415 will decide the fate of Intermediate term trend as well as generate big moves towards breaking out direction.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(02-Mar-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Bullish Hammer candle formation.
2- Benchmark Indices closed with minor gains.
3- Intraday support at lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.00
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-Mar-2012): 18.99

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1404
BSE Declines : 1505
NSE Advances :  697
NSE Declines :  745

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Mar)- -6700(-0.32%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Mar)- +321500(+4.33%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Mar)- +8400(+0.41%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Mar)- +366050(+5.69%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Mar)- +206500(+6.54%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Mar)- -43150(-1.17%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Mar)- +80450(+1.92%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Mar)- -165250(-5.17%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,359.35(+19.60 Points & +0.37%)
Sensex- closed at 17,636.80(+52.83 Points & +0.30% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,650.95(+12.85 Points & +0.17%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,827.66(-6.19 Points & -0.09%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-Mar-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-Mar-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 02-Mar-2012 2395 1816.35 578.65

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 02-Mar-2012 994.28 1064.76 -70.48

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5472
R2 5432
R1 5395
Avg 5355
S1 5318
S2 5278
S3 5241

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5436     Trgt 2
H5 5419     Trgt 1
H4 5401     Long breakout
H3 5380     Go Short
H2 5373
H1 5366
L1 5351
L2 5344
L3 5337    Long
L4 5316     Short Breakout
L5 5299     Trgt 1
L6 5281    Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5522
R2 5480
R1 5435
Avg 5393
S1 5348
S2 5306
S3 5261

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5478     Trgt 2
H5 5458     Trgt 1
H4 5438     Long breakout
H3 5414     Go Short
H2 5406
H1 5398
L1 5383
L2 5375
L3 5367     Long
L4 5343     Short Breakout
L5 5323     Trgt 1
L6 5303     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 05-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11109
R2 10892
R1 10702
Avg 10485
S1 10295
S2 10078
S3 9888

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10928     Trgt 2
H5 10832     Trgt 1
H4 10735     Long breakout
H3 10623     Go Short
H2 10586
H1 10549
L1 10474
L2 10437
L3 10400     Long
L4 10288     Short Breakout
L5 10191     Trgt 1
L6 10095     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(02-03-2012)

Following line was told in the Weekly Outlook(Feb 27 to Mar 02,2012) on 26-02-2012:-

strong supports also between 5340-5415 therefore complete distribution is must for slipping below 5340.

Importance of 5340 was also told daily in whole of this week and Nifty hovered it around only this level and did not sustain below it also in this week.

We also told today for support at 5298 and Nifty traded whole day above it. Although selling at higher levels in this week but support also at lower levels and Intermediate term trend decider 5340 is intact therefore rally hopes after correction completion near 5340 are very much alive.

Mid-session Outlook-2(02-03-2012)

Following line was told in Mid-session Outlook(02-03-2012)

sustaining above will be strong indication of rally after correction completion.

Nifty moved above 5380 but could not sustain and again slipped below therefore not given correction completion confirmation. Sustaining beyond following ranges should be watched for next moves confirmations:-

1- 5298-5380(Two days range with lower levels good support)(For first indication)
2- 5298-5458(Three days range with lower levels good support and higher levels good selling)(For confirmation)

Cautions approach is also required because market will be volatile and will react Assembly election results also results in next week.

Mid-session Outlook(02-03-2012)

Sentiment was nervous today morning due to the issue of ONGC disinvestment only by LIC therefore market slipped but got support at lower levels today. As today intraday support is above yesterday support therefore yesterday support has strengthened.

Next very short term move confirmations range of 5298-5380 was given within 15 minutes after opening and today trading range at this moment is 5315.05-5378.30. Today intraday charts are showing support at lower levels as well as up moves with consolidation formation therefore finally moves above 5380 is expected and sustaining above will be strong indication of rally after correction completion.

Trading session on Saturday(03-03-2012)

Indian Stock Markets(NSE & BSE) will remain open from 11:00 a.m.( inclusive of Pre-opening )till 12:45 p.m. on  March 3, 2012 on Saturday

Fresh position in MarginPlus in BSE will not be allowed in Saturday Trading session

You can place overnight orders in cash segment and also trade in Futures & Options

Spot facility would be disabled for Saturday trading session

Post-open Outlook(02-03-2012)

Sentiment completely disturbed today due to ONGC issue therefore flat Indian markets today. Good support at lower levels yesterday but lack of confidence due to mentioned news and ONGC is more than 3.45% down immediately after opening.

Sentiment is nervours today morning therefore firstly watch sustaining beyond 5298-5380 for next very short term move confirmations.

Rally continuation after correction completion

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb27 to Mar 01,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 sessions intraday charts

1- Hovering around Intermediate term deciding 5340
2- Support at 5298 in last 4 days
3- Resistance at 5458 in last 4 days
4- selling between 5458-5422 on 29-02-2012
5- Support and consolidation betwen 5298-5332 on 01-03-2012
4- Positive divergence in MACD

Conclusions

Intermediate term deciding level is 5340 and its importance is being told daily for the last 5 days. Nifty is hovering it around as well as closed exactly at 5,339.75 today. 

5340 broken down in last 4 sessions but could not sustain and recovered also after intraday Support and consolidation betwen 5298-5332 on 01-03-2012 and until Nifty will not sustain below 5298 till then down moves will not be considered.

Correction is on after 1098 Nifty points rally and both lower levels support and higher levels selling seen in last 4 days seen between 5298-5458. As support and Positive divergence seen in Intraday chart today therefore up moves are expected tomorrow and correction completion hopes at 5340 is still alive.

Although premature to say at this moment but last 4 sessions intraday charts have started to show consolidation indications therefore possibilities of rally above 5458 increased after some more consolidations between 5298-5458.

Rally continuation is expected in the coming weeks after on going correction completion.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 01-Mar-2012

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Mar-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1  All the Indices closed in Red except HC.
2- Whole day negative zone trading after weak opening.
3- Bullish Hammer Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Mar-2012): 18.92

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1228
BSE Declines : 1626
NSE Advances :  561
NSE Declines :  874

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Mar)- +34800(+1.69%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Mar)- -65300(-0.86%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Mar)- +356450(+21.32%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Mar)- +225800(+3.64%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Mar)- +760900(+30.80%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Mar)- -174200(-4.52%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Mar)- +401650(+10.56%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Mar)- -15300(-0.48%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,339.75(-45.45 Points & -0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 17,583.97(-168.71 Points & -0.95% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,663.80(- 41.80 Points & -0.54%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,833.85(-26.12 Points & -0.38%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 01-Mar-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 01-Mar-2012 2133.21 2259.73 -126.52

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 01-Mar-2012 998.54 1008.51 -9.97

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5450
R2 5411
R1 5375
Avg 5336
S1 5300
S2 5261
S3 5225

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5414     Trgt 2
H5 5397     Trgt 1
H4 5380     Long breakout
H3 5359     Go Short
H2 5352
H1 5345
L1 5332
L2 5325
L3 5318     Long
L4 5297     Short Breakout
L5 5280     Trgt 1
L6 5263     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5517
R2 5472
R1 5431
Avg 5386
S1 5345
S2 5300
S3 5259

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5476     Trgt 2
H5 5457     Trgt 1
H4 5437     Long breakout
H3 5413     Go Short
H2 5405
H1 5397
L1 5382
L2 5374
L3 5366     Long
L4 5342     Short Breakout
L5 5322     Trgt 1
L6 5303     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 02-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 10754
R2 10626
R1 10505
Avg 10377
S1 10256
S2 10128
S3 10007

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10636     Trgt 2
H5 10578     Trgt 1
H4 10520     Long breakout
H3 10452     Go Short
H2 10429
H1 10406
L1 10361
L2 10338
L3 10315     Long
L4 10247     Short Breakout
L5 10189     Trgt 1
L6 10131     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(01-03-2012)

Although Indian markets slipped whole day from higher levels and traded in Red but without intraday selling patterns therefore we never told for today intraday selling. Lower levels support was projected in Mid-session Outlook and sharp more than 57 Nifty points recovery was seen from lower levels.

Although first 4 hours trading range lowest was at 5313 but we were expecting support at lower levels therefore we gave 5300 for down move confirmation and Nifty reversed exactly from 5297.50.

Nifty is hovering around 5340 for the last 4 sessions and lower levels support also seen after last 2 sessions higher levels selling therefore next moves preparation and next trend confirmation range is 5298-5458.

Mid-session Outlook(01-03-2012)

As 5340 is Intermediate term trend decider therefore its importance is being continuously being today daily for the last one week and Nifty is hovering it around for the last 4 days.

Nifty is trading between 5313-5349 since opening today and preparing for next decisive move. Although Nifty could not sustain at higher levels but getting support at lower levels also. If Nifty slips below 5300 then it will be deep down confirmation and sustaining above 5349 will be confirmation of today consolidation as well survival of Intermediate term uptrend.

Post-open Outlook-2(01-03-2012)

Nifty slipped below 5346/5340 and sustaining below confirmations will mean deeper correction possibility after Intermediate term trend turning down.

All the important points and crucial levels for a market below 5340 have already been been discussed and updated on 27-02-2012 in following topic:-

Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 
5120-5190

Just click above topic link and prepare yourself for Intermediate term down trend

Post-open Outlook(01-03-2012)

As selling yesterday therefore Following 4 projections were given today in 5346-5390 break out for correction continuation/completion confirmation:-

1- More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422
2- market require more consolidation to cross 5458
3- As good selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher
4- until Nifty will not sustain above 5458 till then next up move will not be considered.

Weak opening today therefore Intermediate trend turning down risk turned high.

5346-5390 break out for correction continuation/completion confirmation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb 28 and Feb 29,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 sessions intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours trading between 5346-5390 on 28-02-2012
2- More than 2 hours trading between 5346-5390 on 29-02-2012
3- More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422 on 29-02-2012
4- Minor support between 5357-5372 on 29-02-2012
5- Technical position of 28-02-2012 has been updated in Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390 on 28-02-2012

Conclusions

Correction of 1098 Nifty Points rally is on and Short term trend is confirm down. Intermediate term trend is at stake and sustaining beyond 5340 will decide its fate.

Nifty traded more than 7 hours between 5346-5390 in last 2 sessions with mixed intraday patterns and sustaining below 5346 will mean intermediate term trend turning down and sharp down moves will be seen to test next support ranges. Sustaining above 5390 will mean rally continuation after correction completion.

More than 3 hours good selling between 5458-5422 and lower level minor support on 29-02-2012 therefore market require more consolidation to cross 5458. As good selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher and until Nifty will not sustain above 5458 till then next up move will not be considered.

More than 7 hours trading between 5346-5390 in 2 previous sessions with buying at lower levels and selling at higher levels within and above this range therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between this range and sustaining below this range will give deeper correction confirmation after sustaining below 5346 and correction completion first indication above 5390 and confirmation will be above 5458.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(29-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Most Indices closed with minor gains or minor loss.
2- Most Indices slipped from intraday higher levels and closed little above intraday lows.
3- Black Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(29-Feb-2012): 19.09

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1573
BSE Declines : 1329
NSE Advances :  844
NSE Declines :  600

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,385.20(+9.70 Points & +0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 17,752.68(+21.56 Points & +0.12% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,705.60(+94.30 Points & +1.24%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,859.97(+42.06 Points & +0.62%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 29-Feb-2012 3666.24 3086.61 579.63

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 29-Feb-2012 1113.77 1544.84 -431.07

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5550
R2 5504
R1 5444
Avg 5398
S1 5338
S2 5292
S3 5232

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5491      Trgt 2
H5 5467    Trgt 1
H4 5443    Long breakout
H3 5414     Go Short
H2 5404
H1 5394
L1 5375
L2 5365
L3 5355    Long
L4 5326    Short Breakout
L5 5302     Trgt 1
L6 5278     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5524
R2 5491
R1 5465
Avg 5432
S1 5406
S2 5373
S3 5347

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5498     Trgt 2
H5 5484     Trgt 1
H4 5471     Long breakout
H3 5455     Go Short
H2 5449
H1 5444
L1 5433
L2 5428
L3 5422     Long
L4 5406    Short Breakout
L5 5393     Trgt 1
L6 5379     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 01-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11004
R2 10835
R1 10677
Avg 10508
S1 10350
S2 10181
S3 10023

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10851     Trgt 2
H5 10775     Trgt 1
H4 10698     Long breakout
H3 10608     Go Short
H2 10578
H1 10548
L1 10489
L2 10459
L3 10429     Long
L4 10339     Short Breakout
L5 10262     Trgt 1
L6 10186     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(29-02-2012)

Nifty traded  more than 5 hours yesterday with Mixed intraday Patterns between 5346-5390 and higher levels selling was shown also in intraday charts yesterday in Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390. As higher levels selling yesterday therefore market could not sustain at higher levels after gap up opening today and slipped as well as trading for the last 2 hours within yesterday 5 hours trading range.

Follow up selling again today after yesterday higher levels selling therefore correction continuation risk turned higher. As Nifty traded almost 2 fours between 5346-5390 and also got support also within this range therefore sustaining beyond this range will be firstly watched tomorrrow for next moves confirmation and until Nifty will not sustain above 5450 till then next upmove will not be considered.

Lalit Sir is busy in is urgent work and Outlooks will be available after 2 hours.

Staff

Firstly Watch Correction fate decider 5346-5390

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(28-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most of the time trading above 5340(Intermediate term trend decider)
2- More than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns between 5346-5390
3- Whole day trading between 5308-5390

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but range shifted to 5268-5410 after negative flow on 29-02-2012. As yesterday down down move was due to negative news therefore equally sharp recovery seen today after positive news.

Correction is on and undecided Nifty is hovering around Intermediate term trend decider 5340,sustaining it beyond will give confirmation to correction continuation/completion. Nifty traded almost whole day above 5340 with intraday mixed patterns between 5346-5390.

Adverse news led 2 volatile sessions with more than 5 hours mixed intraday patterns are suggesting that Indian markets are not prepare for any side decisive moves and will trade more time between or near about 5346-5390 for catching next direction.

As good consolidation patterns at lower levels today therefore expected that follow up consolidation will be seen in the coming sessions and Nifty will finally sustain above 5340 after correction completion confirmation.

Sustaining beyond 5346-5390 will firstly decide the fate of on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(28-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green except IT and FMCG.
2- Whole day upmoves after positive news led strong opening.
3- Long White Candle.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.08
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-Feb-2012): 19.05

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 2170
BSE Declines :  748
NSE Advances : 1238
NSE Declines :  234

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +84300(+5.31%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- -551900(-8.64%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +36100(+1.60%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- +448700(+12.99%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Feb)- +149800(+4.03%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Feb)- +164150(+5.76%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,375.50(+94.30 Points & +1.79%)
Sensex- closed at 17,731.12(+285.37Points & +1.64% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,611.30(+259.50 Points & +3.53%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,317.42(+207.90 Points & +3.40%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 28-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Feb-2012 2937.55 2209.96 727.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Feb-2012 1283.87 1871.08 -587.21

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5493
R2 5442
R1 5408
Avg 5357
S1 5323
S2 5272
S3 5238

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5461     Trgt 2
H5 5441     Trgt 1
H4 5421     Long breakout
H3 5398     Go Short
H2 5390
H1 5382
L1 5367
L2 5359
L3 5351     Long
L4 5328     Short Breakout
L5 5308     Trgt 1
L6 5288     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5585
R2 5522
R1 5481
Avg 5418
S1 5377
S2 5314
S3 5273

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5546     Trgt 2
H5 5522     Trgt 1
H4 5498     Long breakout
H3 5469     Go Short
H2 5460
H1 5450
L1 5431
L2 5421
L3 5412     Long
L4 5383    Short Breakout
L5 5359     Trgt 1
L6 5335     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 29-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 11277
R2 10995
R1 10812
Avg 10530
S1 10347
S2 10065
S3 9882

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11112     Trgt 2
H5 10999     Trgt 1
H4 10885     Long breakout
H3 10757    Go Short
H2 10715
H1 10672
L1 10587
L2 10544
L3 10502    Long
L4 10374     Short Breakout
L5 10260     Trgt 1
L6 10147    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-02-2012)

It was expected that Nifty will not slip below 5340 and complete correction within strong support range 5340-5415 and side ways market will be seen but negative Global cues and crude rates hike news led sharp fall seen yesterday but Sentiment reversed today after recovery in Global markets and reduction in Crude rates by more than .50% therefore equally strong recovery seen today and Nifty is trading above 5340 for the last 5 hours.

Intermedia term trend was at stake after slipping below 5340 but survived after more than 5 hours trading above it today. News based highly volatile markets for the last 2 sessions correction completion confirmation is required yet.

Nifty is hovering around 5340 for the last 2 sessions and last 5 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns also today therefore possibility of sustaining above 5340 has increased but confirmation of correction completion is left through sustaining above.

Only watch sustaining above 5340 tomorrow for next wave of rally after correction completion.

Mid-session Outlook(28-02-2012)

Deeper correction on the back of negative news and slipping below 5340 yesterday but not sustained and moved above today after sentiment improvement due to:-

1- Dow's futures more than 45 points up today.
2- Most Asian markets in Green today.
3- Reduction in Crude rates by more than .50%.

Question of sustaining above 5340 has to be replied yet and that will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival as well as rally continuation possibility after correction completion. 

Post-open Outlook(28-02-2012)

Strong opening and trading above the top of mentioned first trading range(5280-5340). Coming hours intraday charts patterns formations and sustaining above 5340 will give confirmation of Intermediate term trend survival and then high possibility rally continuation after correction completion.

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5340 today for next moves confirmations.

Firstly Watch 5280-5340 today in Improved Sentiment

Pre-open Outlook(28-02-2012)

Asian markets are positive after the slipping of Crude by more than .50% therefore sentiment little improved today morning and Green opening will be seen. Sharp fall and panic bottom yesterday in ongoing correction and firstly its stopping as well as consolidation is required for correction completion confirmations.

Yesterday sharp fall was on the back of negative news flow but sentiment improved today morning and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation is left also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5340 has to be watched today and in the coming sessions because next big moves will depend on it.

Sentiment improved today morning therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 5280-5340 and prepare for next moves. Break out of this range will firstly decide the fate of Intermediate term trend as well as will give first strong indication of correction continuation/completion. 

Sustaining below 5280 will mean high Possibility of

Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 

5120-5190

Bull/Bear Match Deciding Over between 5120-5190

Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(27-Feb-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD and today intraday charts

1- 1098 Points rally in 45 sessions.
2- Rising Trend line broken down.
3- Strong support(5340-5415) broken down today.
4- Whole day down move in Falling Channel.
5- Long Marubozu Candle today.
6- Whole day trading between 5269-5449 today.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1098 Points strong rally but could not cross 5600-5700 resistance and retraced after 3 sessions good selling between 5588-5625. As such strong rallies completes correction between sideways market therefore correction completion possibility near the lowest of strong support range(5340) was considered but following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets:-

1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures traded more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.

Strong support of 5340 has been broken down today therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally were updated on 25-02-2012:-

1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415

5340 broken down forcefully today and given strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and its confirmation will mean:-

1- As Intermediate term trend confirmation means a trend from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore more down moves upto this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.

Correction is on and no indication of its completion yet as well as today lowest(5268.15) is not much above next support range(5120-5190) therefore its testing possibility can not be ruled out. As following most crucial levels are placed between/little above this range therefore this range will decide the fate of Long term trend:-

1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172

Testing of 5120-5190 will mean Intermediate term downward confirmation and Long term trend will be at stake therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched for next big moves confirmation.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 27-Feb-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 27-Feb-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 27-Feb-2012 2957.94 2628.85 329.09

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 27-Feb-2012 1206.72 1905.86 -699.14

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(27-Feb-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Whole day down moves.
2- Long Black Candle.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except FMCG.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.07
Nifty P/E Ratio(27-Feb-2012): 18.50

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  600
BSE Declines : 2278
NSE Advances :  180
NSE Declines : 1289

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Feb)- +265700(+15.12%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Feb)- +1513450(+31.64%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Feb)- +364050(+29.820%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Feb)- +1035800(+19.20%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Feb)- +693100(+40.28%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Feb)- -168950(-4.42%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,281.20(-148.10 Points & -2.73%)
Sensex- closed at 17,445.75(-477.82 Points & -2.67% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,351.80(-236.50 Points & -3.12%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,633.64(-223 Points & -3.26%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5578
R2 5513
R1 5397
Avg 5332
S1 5216
S2 5151
S3 5035

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5462     Trgt 2
H5 5421     Trgt 1
H4 5380     Long breakout
H3 5330     Go Short
H2 5314
H1 5297
L1 5264
L2 5247
L3 5231    Long
L4 5181    Short Breakout
L5 5140     Trgt 1
L6 5099     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5587
R2 5532
R1 5435
Avg 5380
S1 5283
S2 5228
S3 5131

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5490     Trgt 2
H5 5455     Trgt 1
H4 5421     Long breakout
H3 5379     Go Short
H2 5365
H1 5351
L1 5324
L2 5310
L3 5296     Long
L4 5254     Short Breakout
L5 5220     Trgt 1
L6 5185    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-02-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 10908
R2 10754
R1 10483
Avg 10329
S1 10058
S2 9904
S3 9633

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10639     Trgt 2
H5 10543    Trgt 1
H4 10446     Long breakout
H3 10329     Go Short
H2 10290
H1 10251
L1 10174
L2 10135
L3 10096     Long
L4  9979    Short Breakout
L5  9882   Trgt 1
L6  9786   Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(27-02-2012)

Following most negative factors triggered sharp declines in Indian markets and almost confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning downward:-

1- All the Asian markets Red closing except SSEC.
2- All the European markets big gap down opening.
3- Dow's Futures more than 50 points down.
4- Sharp surge in crude rates and possibility of Petroleum rates hike by Indian Oil Companies.
5- As inflation will increase due to Petroleum rates hike therefore interest rates decreasing possibility turning lower in RBI Credit Policy.

Strong support of 5340 has been broken down and intermediate term trend turning down therefore Indian markets will retrace 20-Dec-2011 begun rally and its Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

Next crucial levels are as follows:-

55-Day DMA - 5160
200-Day DMA- 5177
200-Day SMA- 5172

As correction is on therefore All 7 following supports of 2012 Rally was updated on 25-02-2012:-

1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415

Next support range is 5120-5190 and between/little above this range following most crucial levels are placed:-

1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day DMA - 5160
3- 200-Day DMA- 5177
4- 200-Day SMA- 5172

Range of 5120-5190 will be watched for the survival of all the Up Trends

Mid-session Outlook-2(27-02-2012)

Indian markets are alreay in corrective mode and global markets weakness triggered sharp declines today. Nifty slipped sufficiently below 5340 therefore intermediate term trend downward possibility turned stronger and that will mean more down moves confirmations for the period from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Mid-session Outlook-2(27-02-2012)

Indian markets are alreay in corrective mode and global markets weakness triggered sharp declines today. Nifty slipped sufficiently below 5340 therefore intermediate term trend downward possibility turned stronger.

Sustaining below 5340 will be firstly watched because that will mean more down moves confirmations for the period from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2012)

Short term correction is on and Nifty slipped below 5340 after continuous down moves since opening today. Sustaining below 5340 will be firstly watched for survival of Intermediate term up trend survival confirmations.

Firstly Sideways and then Blasting Indian Markets

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Feb 27 to Mar 02,2012)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 3 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in next week:-

1- Immediate Strong Supports and Resistances

2- All 7 Supports of 2012 Rally

3- Correction confirmation of 2012 Rally

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction commenced after good selling between 5588-5625 therefore complete consolidation is required to cross 5625 and in the same manner strong supports also between 5340-5415 therefore complete distribution is must for slipping below 5340.  Although Nifty tested mentioned support range and closed above it but both supports and resistances both are sufficiently strong and market require complete preparation for breaking out of these 2 Resistance/support ranges.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade minimum 2/3 sessions between 5340 and 5625 and prepare for next moves and sustaining below 5340 will mean deeper correction after breaking down of strong support ranges,sustaining above 5625 will mean strong rally after correction completion.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up and Short term trends is down after 3 sessions selling between 5588-5625. As correction commenced after good selling therefore complete consolidation is required to cross 5625 and in the same manner strong supports also between 5340-5415 therefore complete distribution is also must for slipping below 5340. Although Nifty tested mentioned support range and closed above it on 24-02-2012 but both supports and resistances both are sufficiently strong and market require complete preparation for breaking out either of these 2 Resistance/support ranges.

Following 2 ranges should be kept in mind:-

1- 5370-5530(Expected that Nifty will trade between this range in the next 2/3 sessions and prepare for next moves. Sustaining beyond this range will be first indication of correction continuation/completion)
2- 5340-5625(Sustaining beyond will be confirmation of correction continuation/completion)

Sustaining below 5340 will mean deeper correction after breaking down of strong support ranges as well as Intermediate term trend turning down. Sustaining above 5625 will mean strong rally after correction completion. Indian markets will firstly prepare minimum 2/3 sessions within sideways moves and then sharp moves will be seen after break out of mentioned ranges.

It is the character of Bull markets that markets does not moves deep down and completes correction at higher levels consolidations therefore expected that fresh consolidation will start in the coming week and on going rally will remain continued above 5625 without sustaining below 5340.