Most Bullish news led Strong Rally require Confirmation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(16-01-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 28 Sessions Correction

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

28 Sessions Correction was seen within 'Pennant Pattern' and its upward line was broken out forcefully and got intraday support also on it today but on the back of most Bullish news of RBI repo rates cut therefore sustaining above it should be firstly watched for on going correction completion after break out of 'Pennant Pattern'.

As today strong moves were on the back of most Bullish news therefore Waves will be recounted according to sustainability at higher levels and will be updated accordingly in the coming sessions's Outlooks

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8400-8437
2- Last 3 hours range(8469-8527) broken down after higher levels Profit Booking
3- Whole day actual trading between 8381-8527

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although good selling in last 2 sessions and correction continuation was expected also but RBI cuts repo rates by 25 basis points a fortnight ahead of the scheduled date of monetary policy announcement on February 3. As RBI has been keeping the benchmark interest rate at elevated level at 8 per cent since January 2014 therefore this news most happily surprised and huge gap up opening seen today. As Bull markets consolidate at higher levels also therefore Nifty consolidated firstly because selling was seen in previous sessions.

Last 3 hours trading between 8469-8527 and this range broken down therefore higher levels Profit Booking  will be considered and firstly sustaining above today highest should be watched for next up moves confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and Indian markets are most Bullish but corrections are technical requirements which is being seen for the last 29 sessions. As correction was within  Pennant Pattern formations therefore its importance was updated on 12-01-2015 in "Nifty will give First Strong Indication of Next Big Moves from Pennant Pattern Break Out".  

Although Waves structure was suggesting more down moves but Pennant was forcefully broken out today. As whole day trading of today was Most Bullish news led therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched in the coming sessions for:-

1- Next strong rally after correction completion above 8527 because last 3 hours selling below it 
2- For correction continuation towards and below 7961 because Nifty got supports exactly at upper line on 8381 and its broken down will mean most Bullish news led false break out

Rate Cut by RBI

As positive surprise by RBI and Repo rates reduced by 25 bps therefore huge gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets because it is beginning new Rates Cut Cycle after a long time also. 

Correction continuation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(15-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8300-8326 (Immediate Resistances)
2- Support between 8237-8264 (Immediate Supports)
3- Pennant Pattern formations
4- Whole day actual trading between 8237-8326

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Both higher levels selling patterns and lower levels supports with high intraday volatility therefore no clear signals from today intraday patterns. As Pennant Pattern formations today therefore valid break out of its lines will be next immediate moves first indication but more consolidation is firstly required for any decisive up moves. 

Wave'c' of Wave'C' started yesterday after good selling and its continuation is expected towards 7961 because as such consolidation was not seen today which may suggest any decisive up move.

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Intraday Levels and Trading Strategy 
For 15-01-2015 

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Trading Policies of "Levels" and "Trading Strategy

Strong Indication of Fresh Down Moves beginning

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(14-01-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8336-8356 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8268-8356

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 5 hours selling within 20 points range between 8336-8356 and this range broken down forcefully therefore this range will be immediate Resistance of Nifty and it is strong indication of fresh down moves beginning towards/below 7961 as well as until complete consolidation will not happen till then Nifty will not sustain above 8356.

Wave'b' of Wave'C' continuation with its recent top formation at 8356.65 on 13-01-2015 and follow up selling as well as finally sustaining below 8336 will mean Wave'b' of Wave'C' completion and Wave'c' of Wave'C' beginning for fresh down moves below 7961.

As Dow's Futures is trading more than 100 points up and most European markets are also trading more than 1% up as well as SGX Nifty is 47 points up at this moment therefore if such Bullishness maintains in Global markets tomorrow then Indian markets may open strong nad close in Green on 14-01-2015 but our view is same which has been updated above. 

Nifty will give First Strong Indication of Next Big Moves from Pennant Pattern Break Out 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(13-01-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (12-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 8626.95 on 04-12-2014 and 'ABC' correction beginning.
2- Wave'A'(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
3- Wave'a' of Wave'B'(8364.75 on 23-12-2014)
4- Wave'b' of Wave'B'(8147.95 on 26-12-2014)
5- Wave'c' of Wave'B'(8445.60 on 05-01-2015) 
6- Wave'a' of Wave'C'(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
7- Wave'b' of Wave'C' continuation with its recent top formation at 8332.60 on 12-01-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

It should also be kept in mind that 26 Sessions Correction continuation with Pennant Pattern formations and valid break out of Pennant line(Upper or lower) will be strong indication of correction completion/continuation.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Jan-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8287-8297
2- Buying between 8275-8283
3- Consolidation between 8253-8369
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 8245-8332

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow's Futures recovered more than 100 points from lower levels and traded more than 80 points up after 12:30 PM and all European markets started to trade with good gains after positive opening therefore sentiment improved and Indian markets recovered from lower levels and closed near the higher levels of the day.

Although Nifty closed 0.46% up but as such consolidation was not seen and selling patterns were also seen therefore view will not be Bullish because today up moves were on the back of Global markets Bullish sentiments and not after complete consolidation as well as Up moves were with Bearish Rising Channel.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

26 Sessions Correction between 7961-8626 with lower levels supports/consolidations and higher levels Resistances/selling therefore some more preparations(fresh positions formations) is still required for valid break out of this range and confirmation of deeper correction continuation below 7961 or correction completion above 8626. As correction continuation with Pennant Pattern formations therefore valid break out of its lines will give first strong indication of next big moves.

As Waves theory is suggesting that Wave'C' is on for down moves below 7961 therefore expected that Nifty will not move above Wave'c' of Wave'B'(8445.60) and will slip below 7961 after follow up selling in the coming sessions.  

Mid-session Outlook(12-01-2015)

As Nifty is trading almost flat for the last 2 hours between 8275-8297 with mixed patterns formations(means both buying and selling) therefore view is cautious and firstly valid break out of this range should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations because Indian markets will react to IIP and CPI also.