Cautious View after Clear Selling Patterns Formations Today

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(01-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 7755-7777(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7702-7777

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As clear selling patterns formations between 7755-7777 today therefore it will be immediate resistance of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain above 7777 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves above today highest will not be seen despite flat closing today after last half hour strong recovery from lower levels.

RBI Credit Policy on 05-04-2016 and Nifty will prepare in next 2 sessions for next decisive moves after its announcements. Certainly only one day today selling is not sufficient for the correction of post Budget 952 points March 2016 rally but if follow up selling develops in next 2 sessions then deeper correction will be seen after this event.

Up moves above 7749 was told in both previous Outlooks and it was seen today but view is cautious after selling patterns formations today and until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(7777) after fresh consolidation till then immediate rally will not be considered.

View will be wait and watch for next 2 Pre-RBI Policy sessions and let follow up moves develop between 7702-7777 then next Short Term Trend will be considered according to intraday patterns formations within and near about this range and its valid break out will be confirmation of:-

1- Below 7702 will mean Post Budget rally correction beginning.
2- Above 7777 will mean Fresh strong Rally beginning after Long Term Trend and all tends turning up confirmations because Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA is today at 7775.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated but Mid-session Outlook may be posted during trading hours.

Rally continuation after Follow up Consolidations 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(30-03-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Mar-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 7628-7645
2- Support between 7583-7599
3- Selling between 7625-7652
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
5- Whole day actual trading between 7583-7652

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Finally Rally continuation after follow up Consolidations in the coming Sessions":-

1- Supports between 7587-7610 
2- Firstly sustaining beyond today supports range(7587-7610) should be watched for today started correction completion. 

Market moving into consolidation phase will be understood because Nifty got supports yesterday between 7587-7610 and almost whole day traded within and above this range today with follow up supports within this range between 7583-7599 therefore yesterday supports range(7587-7610) has been strengthened today because consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels was also seen within and above yesterday supports range. 

As some selling was also seen at higher levels today therefore possibility of slipping below today lowest(7583) can not be ruled out under consolidation process but until Nifty will not sustain below today lowest till then deeper correction will not be considered and once sustaining above today highest(7652) will mean strong indication of yesterday started correction completion.

Still same view which was expressed yesterday that Nifty will trade and prepare for next trend between 7518-7749 in the coming sessions of this week for post RBI Credit Policy next big moves and finally valid break out of this range will decide next Trend. Still expected that finally rally above yesterday highest(7749) will remain continued in next week after follow up consolidations between 7518-7749 and sustaining above today highest(7652) will be strong indication of yesterday started correction completion.

Finally Rally continuation after follow up Consolidations in the coming Sessions 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 29 to Apr 01,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Mar-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Pull Back Rally beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Recent top of Pull Back rally formations at 7749.40 on 28-03-2016
3- Correction of Pull Back rally beginning with recent bottom formations at 7587.70 on 28-03-2016

Inverse Head And Shoulders formations

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Mar-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern formations in 48 sessions with its Neckline at 7600
2- Head formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 
3- Neckline broken out on 21-03-2016
4- Neckline broken down with closing above it on 28-03-2016 

Fibonacci Retracement levels of Post-Budget Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Mar-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-03-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Mar-2016):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Supports between 7587-7610 
3- Whole day actual trading between 7587-7749

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Pull Back Rally beginning on 29-02-2016 after Union Budget-2016 which remained continued without any deeper correction but strong intraday correction was seen on 28-03-2016 which will be seen according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Post-Budget Rally(6826-7749)

1- 13.0%- 7629(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 7531
3- 27.0%- 7499
4- 38.2%- 7396(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7287(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7178(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7096
8- 76.4%- 7043
9- 78.6%- 7023 
10-88.6%- 6931 

Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern formations in 48 sessions with its Neckline at 7600 and its Neckline was broken out on 21-03-2016 and Nifty remained above it in last 3 sessions of previous week but its Neckline was broken down with closing above it on 28-03-2016 therefore firstly sustaining beyond Neckline(7600) should be watched in the coming sessions because confirmation of sustaining above it will mean next target of Nifty at 8374.20. Just click following topic link to understand the calculations of mentioned target:-   

48 Sessions Bullish Pattern showing Nifty target at 8374.20

Certainly view will be cautious because today Nifty moved and closed below following levels in a single day today correction:- 

1- Last 3 sessions lowest(7618)
2- 13.0% retracement level(7629)

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7518-7568
2- 7410-7443
3- 7347-7375

Correction beginning today and no confirmation of its completion yet but whole day today Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels and got supports also near about Neckline(7600) between 7587-7610 as well as today closing also above Neckline at 7615.10 therefore hopes are alive for fresh rally beginning after correction completion near about Neckline. 

As last 3 sessions levels broken down in today crash and more consolidation is required for decisive rally above today highest as well as more down moves in consolidation process can not be ruled out therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched for today started correction completion:-

1- Firstly sustaining beyond today supports range(7587-7610) should be watched for today started correction completion. 
2- Finally 7518-7749 will decide the fate of Post Budget Pull Back Rally. 

Nifty will trade and prepare between 7518-7749 in the coming sessions of this week for post RBI Credit Policy next big moves and finally valid break out of this range will decide next Trend. Still expected that finally rally above today highest(7749) will remain continued in next week after follow up consolidations between 7518-7749 despite 101 points down moves today.   

Firstly watch valid break out of last 3 sessions trading range

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(28-03-2016)

As now out of station and will be able to reach my native place at 06:00 tomorrow therefore updating only tomorrow Outlooks without charts analysis.

Following lines were told at 09:46 AM on 23-03-2016 in "Post-open Outlook(23-03-2016)":- 

Next supports are between 7630-7670 which should be firstly watched today for the confirmation of today started down moves continuation/completion.

Supports between 7630-7670 were told and Nifty got support at 7670.60 that day as well as closed flat after some recovery from lower levels.

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7766-7835
2- 7912-7960

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 7630-7670
2- 7518-7568
3- 7410-7443
3- 7347-7375

As Bearish Hanging Man Candlestick formation on 23-03-2016 therefore view will be cautiously Bullish and firstly valid break out of last 3 sessions trading range(7618-7728) should be watched in the coming 1/2 sessions for next decisive moves confirmations.