Pull Back Rally Possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8105-8152
2- Consolidation between 8057-8084
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8119-8140
4- Whole day actual trading between 8057-8152

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing in a volatile day today but whole day good consolidation and Bullish Hammer candlestick formation therefore Pull Back rally is expected in the coming sessions and once sustaining above today trading highest(8152) will mean today consolidation levels turning into strong supports.

As all the European markets are trading moe than 1% down and Dow Futures is also now 110 points down therefore sentimental weakness may be seen tomorrow morning if such weakness reflects in Asian markets also and in that situation Nifty may firstly trade within today trading range. As whole day good consolidation Patterns formations today therefore until fresh selling will not develop till then down moves below today lowest will not be considered.  

Long Term Trend at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
2- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-'C'(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- 31 sessions between 7997-8505
6- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210)

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said on monsoon yesterday that India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its earlier April prediction from 93 per cent to 88 per cent this month.

As soon as above statement came out Indian markets started to move down and Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) today,finally sustaining it beyond will decide next trend will decide next trend because:-

Nifty tested and hovered around 200 Day EMA 11 sessions from 28-04-2015 to 14-05-2015 and finally sustained above it last 13 sessions but again moved below it today.

As market came under firm grip of Bears after negative news of Weaker monsoon and final impact of this news on Indian markets have to be decided yet because as per our view 12 per cent less monsoon will not create as such havoc and drought like situation. 

As Nifty traded last 31 sessions between 7997-8505 and hover around 14 days Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8210) therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of Long Term Trend also and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions. 

Slipping below 7997 will mean 5 Waves correction confirmation and in that situation Waves structure of on going correction will be as follows:-

1- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
2- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
3- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
4- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
5- Wave-5 continuation after slipping below 7997

Certainly Long Term Trend is at stake after Weaker monsoon forecast and slipping below 7997 will be Wave-5 as well as deeper correction.

Pull Back Rally within Sideways Market between 8201-8489

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Volatility after 25 BPS rates cut by RBI.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after RBI rates cut.
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 3 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8227-8445

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although we were expecting Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS today but well prepared also for down moves if rate are cut by 25 BPS therefore we told following line yesterday;-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.

Firstly volatility after 25 BPS rate cut and after that Huge fall was seen today but all the down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel therefore expected that Pull Back Rally will be seen in the coming sessions.

Weekly Analysis topic with Crucial levels were updated on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded  between 8201-8489 in last 7 sessions with lower levels good supports therefore Nifty could not slip below 8201 despite huge fall today.

As almost 4 hours today down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore Pull Back rally is expected tomorrow and still Nifty will be understood sideways Trading between 8201-8489 and next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond 8201-8489. 

Rally above 8467/8489 after Repo Rates cut by 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow

 Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(02-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8440-8467(Immediate Resistances)
2- Last trading rate at the trading lowest of the day
3- Last 2 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8422-8467

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:16 PM on 01-06-2015 in "Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)":-

1- Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment.
2- but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also.
3- view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy.

When Nifty was trading near the higher levels the day then we told for selling and Nifty closed near the lowest trading levels of the day today.

We told following lines also on 30-05-2015 in "Pull Back Rally continuation Possibility towards 8762.55":-

1- selling possibility can not be ruled out on the back of all around accepted RBI Rates cut on 2nd June
2- follow up consolidation is must because 5 hours mixed Patterns formations on 29-05-2015.

Selling possibility was told and it was seen between 8440-8467 today and it will be immediate resistance of Nifty. Crucial levels were updated in following Weekly Analysis topic on on 23-05-2015 in "Firstly Short Term Correction but Sideways Trading between 8201-8489 in Next Week":-

Nifty traded within above mentioned range between 8271-8467 in last 6 sessions with lower levels good supports and higher levels selling therefore technically Nifty has to trade and prepare yet for next decisive moves beyond 8201-8489.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow and our expectations with market reactions will be as follows:-

1- 25 BPS rate cut is confirm and discounted in present rates also therefore if it is announced then market will fall.
2- 50 BPS rate cut is possible and if it is announced then market will shoot up but before that Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.
3- 75 BPS and above rates cut can not be ruled out because Governor Rajan is known for surprises also. If it happens the Nifty will shoot up above 8467/8489 and will consolidate at higher levels but before than Nifty has to consolidate between 8370-8467 and high volatility may also be seen before Credit Policy.

As now Indian Economy Growth ball is in the court of RBI and expected that RBI Governor will fulfill his responsibility after watching WPI,CPI,IIP and GDP figures. We are expecting rates cut by RBI between 50 BPS to 100 BPS tomorrow as well as rally above 8467/8489 because today last 2 hours Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel also. A strict caution is that market may be highly volatile before Credit Policy therefore trade carefully.

Mid-session Outlook(01-06-2015)

Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels the day at this moment but today intraday charts are showing selling patterns also therefore view is cautious before RBI Credit Policy.