Correction Continuation & 3 crucial levels are Big Trend Decider of Nifty 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2015)

Huge correction of Nifty was seen in 2008 which started on 08-01-2008 from 6357.10 and completed at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and Wave-1 started. Its waves structure with detailed analysis was updated in following topic of previous week Outlook:-

Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week

Its Wave-3 started  after Wave-2 correction completion on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15. Now Wave-3 is on and its waves structure is as follows:- 

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)- Wave-2 beginning('ABC' correction)
7- Wave'A'(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave'B'(5093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave'c'(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)- Wave-3 beginning Wave after 'ABC' correction completion)
10- Wave-3 recent top formation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction continuation
11- Recent bottom of on going correction formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015

Waves structure of Sub Wave-3 of  Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction completion(Wave-A) with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- Pull Back rally completion(Wave-B) with recent top formation at 8844.40 on 15-04-2015

Waves structure of Wave-5 and on going Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC'correction beginning
7- Wave-'A'(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-'B'(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-'C' continuation with recent bottom formation at 8596.70 on 17-04-2015

62 Sessions sideways Trading between 8269-9119

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Head and Shoulders Bearish Pattern formations in 62 sessions with neckline at 8269

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Wave-3 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013,its 5 waves completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that correction started. As correction begun after completion of 5 waves therefore Nifty may correct whole 4000 points rally in accordance of following retracement levels:-

1- 13.0%- 8,598(Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8,174
3- 27.0%- 8,038
4- 38.2%- 7,590(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7,118(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 6,646(Crucial)
7- 70.0%- 6,290
8- 76.4%- 6,062
8- 78.6%- 5,974
10-88.6%- 5,574

Now 'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 8269-9119. Waves movements within this range are as follows:-

Wave-'A' corrected 850 points(9119-8269)
Now Wave-'C' correction is on after Wave-'B'completion at 8844 and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then:- 
Wave-'C' may correct up to 7994(8844-850)

Following levels are lying near 7994:-

1- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175)
2- Bottom of Wave-5(7961.35)
3- Bottom of Wave-'A'(8269.15)

Wave-'C' correction continuation and expected that war between Bulls and Bears will be seen near about above 4 levels as well as finally sustaining beyond 7961 will decide next Big moves because:-

1- If Nifty sustain below 7961 then much deeper correction may be seen because that will be Long Term Trend turning down confirmation after sustaining below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8175) also.  
2- If Nifty sustain above 7961 then that will be strong indication of not only Wave-5 correction completion but also of correction completion of that Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013. 

Long Term Trend is up, Short Term Trend is down and Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 8269-8844 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide Intermediate Term Trend as well as give first strong indication of next big moves because:- 

1- Nifty is sideways between 8269-9119 for the last 62 sessions with Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern formations within it and its neckline is at 8269 therefore sustaining below 8269 will mean first strong indication of deeper correction.  
2- As following 2 resistances are above 8844 which have turned weaker after 27 sessions correction below it therefore sustaining above 8844 will mean first strong indication of fresh strong rally above life time high(9119.20) after correction completion.  

1- Resistances between 8920-8943
2- Resistances 9023-9096

'ABC' correction of Wave-5 of Wave-3 continuation between 7961-9119 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide next big trend in above mentioned manner. Now Wave-'C' correction is on and if Wave-'C' corrects 100% of Wave-'A' then it may correct up to 7994 which is just above 7961 therefore possibility of correction completion above 7961 after 'ABC' correction completion is still alive and should be firstly watched. As many times Bull markets complete its correction in narrow range sideways market with Time wise correction also therefore correction completion within sideways markets between 7961-9119 can not be ruled out.

Correction is on and its continuation is expected. As its life and length will be decided through sustaining beyond 8269,7994 and 7961 therefore sustaining beyond these 3 levels should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks. Above mentioned next big Trends possibilities should be kept in mind and these 3 crucial levels will give strong indications of its beginning as well as these levels will be proved those big moves decider. 

As busy therefore today Outlook is not being updated

Strong Signals of More Weakness in Indian Markets

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(16-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 09 to Apr 15,2015):-

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Following selling above 8740 was told in all last 3 sessions Outlooks:-

1- Selling between 8740-8763 on 09-04-2015 
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour on 09-04-2015 
3- Selling between 8761-8781 on 10-04-2015
4- Selling between 8754-8768 on 10-04-2015
5- Selling between 8777-8787 on 10-04-2015
6- Selling between 8777-8784 on 13-04-2015
7- Selling between 8810-8825 on 13-04-2015
8- Selling between 8825-8841 on 13-04-2015
9- Nifty slipped below 8740 in sharp fall of only 45 Minutes on 15-04-2015 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8802-8844
2- 121 Points sharp fall in last 45 Minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8723-8844

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Selling above 8740 was continuously updated in following 3 previous sessions Outlooks:-

1- Topic posted on 14-04-2015:- Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive 
2- Topic posted on 11-04-2015:- Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week
3- Topic posted on 09-04-2015:- 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider 

We cautioned and told selling in following words again and again:-

In Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive:-

1- whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation.
2- Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive
3- Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains

In Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in Next Week:-

1- higher levels good selling in last 2 sessions therefore emergence down moves possibility 
2- strong signals of fresh down moves within first 2 sessions of next week.
3- good intraday selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions and Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick formations also in last 2 sessions therefore Strong Signals of Short Term Correction in the beginning of Next Week

In 8825 is Next Trend and Big moves Decider:-

1- selling patterns formations were also seen at higher levels today
2- some selling patterns were also seen and next resistances are little above today highest therefore follow up consolidation is must.

As selling above 8740 in all last 3 sessions and follow up more than more than 5 hours selling today therefore Nifty slipped below 8740 in only 45 Minutes and above mentioned selling ranges between 8740-8844 will be strong resistances as well as complete consolidation will be required for fresh rally above 8844. 

Long and Short Term Trends are still up and now Intermediate Term is sideways between 8269-8844,expected that Nifty will trade within this range in the coming week/weeks as well as will prepare for next big moves beyond this range.

If follow up selling develops then that will be strong indication of corrective Wave-C formation for fresh down moves below the bottom of on going correction(8269.15). As good selling in last 4 sessions and last 2 sessions trading range broken down with Engulfing Bearish Candle formation today therefore strong signals of more weakness and fresh down moves are expected also in the coming sessions.

Short Term Correction Possibility still Alive

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(15-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8777-8784
2- Selling between 8810-8825
3- Selling between 8825-8841
4- Whole day actual trading between 8763-8841

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing near the higher levels of the day but whole day selling patterns formations and selling was seen in previous 2 sessions also therefore strong signals of selling phase continuation. Last 3 sessions are showing selling patterns and it should be kept in mind that length of correction will depend on the size and days of selling patterns. As Short Term indicators are also in Overbought zone therefore Short Term correction possibility is very much alive and market will be healthy after its completion for fresh rally. 

Long and Short Term Trends are up and Intermediate Term was sideways between 8269-8788 for the 15 sessions and last Monday closing was above it at 8834. As selling patterns formations is previous 3 sessions therefore follow up consolidation is must for sustaining above 8788. Let it happen then fresh rally will be considered towards and above life time high(9119.20) after fresh consolidation near about following resistances:-

1- 8920-8943(weak)
2- 9023-9096(strong)

Short Term Correction possibility is still alive despite previous Nifty closing with 0.61% gains and fresh decisive moves will be considered after fresh follow up consolidation patterns formations.