13 Months correction after Obama visit in 2010 but 13 Sessions correction in 2015

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 09 to Feb 13,2015)

13 Months Correction after Obama visit in Nov 2010

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Rally beginning after 2008 correction completion) 
2- President Obama's visit between 6-11-2010 and 9-11-2010 and correction beginning after Rally completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 13 Months correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011

Correction started after Obama visit in Jan 2015

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally continuation from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
2- President Obama's visit between 25-01-2015 and 27-01-2015 and correction beginning after Rally completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
3- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8645.55 on 06-02-2015

Waves Structure of on going Wave

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8445.60 on 05-01-2015) 
7- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
8- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
9- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formation at 8645.55 on 06-02-2015

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Feb 09 to Feb 13,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 8 Sessions intraday charts

1- 8 Sessions Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 8645-8726

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Certainly 13 months correction after Obama's visit to India in 2010 and Correction again started after 2015 visit also.. 2010 correction lasted 13 months and 2015 correction is being seen for the last 6 sessions. As high expectations from Obama visits and sentiment turned heated therefore correction started for cooling down but difference between 2010 and 2015 is that there was as such no big agreements in 2010 while big deals and most successful visit in 2015.

As 2010 correction started after 5 waves completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010 therefore it corrected whole that rally which 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 but at present Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation and its Wave-5 is still left which should move above Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3(8996.60)

Strong supports were lying at 8695 and it has been broken down on 06-02-2015 but its broken down technical confirmations is still left through:-

1- 3% down moves or
3- 3 sessions down closing.

As Intraday charts patterns of last 8 sessions are showing consolidation pattern of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and only minor selling patterns are seen as well as consolidation pattern of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel was seen on 06-02-2015 therefore expected that;-

1- Nifty will not sustain below 8695
2- Correction will complete near about 8695
3- Deeper correction will not be seen. 
4- Fresh rally towards new life time high will start in next week

Although after Obama visit 2010 Correction remained continued for 13 months but in 2015 correction will complete within 13 sessions.

Nifty is Ready for Fresh Rally Towards New all time High 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(06-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8738-8766
2- 154 Points Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8684-8838

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following projections proved 100% accurate which were done yesterday in "Cautiously Bullish view with Pull Back Rally possibility":-

1- View is cautiously Bullish with Pull Back Rally possibility
2- Pull Back Rally possibility will be considered up to 8852

Following intraday moves of today proved that our above projections were 100% accurate:-

1- Nifty traded 114 up in above mentioned Pull Back Rally. 
2- Today highest is at 8838.45 and Pull Back Rally possibility was considered up to 8852.
3- We were cautiously Bullish and Nifty slipped 154 points from higher levels and closed 12 points down. 

Following Weekly analysis topic was posted on 30-01-2015:-

8695 Will decide Depth of Correction

Nifty tested 8695 today and closed at 8711.70 after lowest formation at 8,683.65 today and now following questions have to be answered:-

1- Will correction complete near about 8695?
2- Will deeper correction will be seen after sustaining below 8695 and Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmation?

As per our view correction will complete near about 8695 because:-

1- More than 3 hours consolidation today. 
2- 154 Points Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel which is a consolidation pattern.
3- Intraday patterns of last 3 sessions are showing good consolidation pattern and minor selling patterns.
4- Nifty traded in the range of last 3 sessions with consolidation patterns today.

As big fall of 30-01-2015 was not supported by huge selling and good selling was not seen before that day also therefore final conclusion after today consolidation is that:-

Nifty will not sustain below 8695 and correction will complete near about 8695 as well as fresh rally towards new all time high will generate from this and near about 8695. 

Cautiously Bullish view with Pull Back Rally possibility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(05-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Minor selling between 8760-8772
3- Slow down moves in last 40 minutes.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8705-8792

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty slipped 69 points in last 40 minutes and Red closing near the lower levels of the day but down moves were slow which is a consolidation indication. As both higher levels minor selling and down moves in  Bullish Falling Channel were also seen therefore if follow up consolidation develops tomorrow then up moves will be seen above today highest.

View is not Bearish despite 0.38% down closing today and emergence of supports getting possibility between next 2nd support range(8695-8720). Pull Back Rally possibility will be considered up to 8852 but correction completion confirmation is still required through sustaining above following levels:-

1- 8772
2- 8852

Although last 3 sessions of this week closed in Red but as such selling patterns were not seen and on the contrary consolidation patterns were also seen therefore View is cautiously Bullish with Pull Back Rally possibility and next trend view will be formed after next 1/2 sessions intraday charts patterns formations watching.

Next Big Moves require Some More Technical Positions Formations

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(04-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8727-8758(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation Pattern of all Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 8727-8837

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line with resistances were updated yesterday in "Pull Back rally Possibility within Sideways market":-

As following resistances therefore firstly consolidation is required for next rally above 9000:-

1- Resistance between 8820-8852
2- Resistance between 8918-8936

Although strong opening but above resistances therefore Nifty could not cross 1st resistance and slipped after highest formation at 8,837.30 and closing near the lower levels of the day. Following supports were updated on 30-01-2015 in "8695 Will decide Depth of Correction 8695 Will decide Depth of Correction":-

1- Supports between 8727-8755
2- Supports between 8695-8720

Although sharp down after RBI Credit policy but Nifty got support exactly at above 1st support after lowest formation at 8726.65.

As lower levels buying with consolidation Pattern of all Down moves with Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore emergence of first correction completion signal but follow up consolidation is must because above resistances are lying at higher levels.

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is down and Nifty is sideways between  8695-8996. As higher levels resistances and lower levels supports within this range therefore Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves. Follow up moves for technical positions formations and finally sustaining beyond 8695-8996 will decide following next big moves:-

1- Sustaining below 8695 after follow up selling will mean sharp Correction after Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmations.
2- Sustaining above 8996 after follow up consolidation will mean fresh up moves above 9000 after all Trends turning up confirmations.

No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest only that is always updated. Let market prepare for next trend and decisive moves then will be updated from intraday charts patterns formations in the same manner as being down for the last more than 4 years.

Pull Back rally Possibility within Sideways market

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(03-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8752-8770
2- Consolidation Patterns between 8776-8802
3- Whole day actual trading between 8752-8840

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Red closing after most time negative zone trading but lower levels good consolidation therefore Pull Back Rally will be seen tomorrow. As following resistances therefore firstly consolidation is required for next rally above 9000:-

1- Resistance between 8820-8852
2- Resistance between 8918-8936

As lower levels supports and higher levels resistances between 8695-8996 therefore Nifty will be understood sideways within this range and Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next trend within this range. All trends are up but Oscillators are overbought therefore correction is very much due which was seen last Friday and 8695 will decide depth of correction. Follow up moves with sustaining beyond 8695-8996 will be next trend confirmations and should be firstly watched for next trend confirmations .