Strong GDP news led rally continuation & correction beginning only after fresh selling patterns formations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Mar 04 to Mar 07,2024)
Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (01-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22353.30 on 01-03-2024.
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and from this level Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun. Impulsive Wave-1 of this waves structure completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and corrective Wave-2 started from this level which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023. Impulsive Wave-3 begun from 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and now its Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22353.30 on 01-03-2024 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts and Weekly charts.
Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (01-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising in Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 94.14 & %D(3)- 84.50.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 1106.91 & EXP(9)- 1059.11 & Divergence- 47.80
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows;-
1- As in Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising in Over bought zone therefore on going rally continuation is expected expected in the coming week.
3- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone therefore it is clear that this indicator is confirming upward trend with up moves continuation possibility.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(01-Mar-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Up moves after positive opening
2- Consolidation between 22146-22210
3- Sharp up
4- Last 4 hours up moves with downward corrections
5- Whole day actual trading between 22048-22353
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
The data released by the Ministry of Statistics and programme Implementation on February 29 showed that:-
1- India's GDP growth zooms to 8.4% in Q3. This is the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2022, beating forecasts of 6.6%.
2- The NSO, in its second advance estimate of national accounts, pegged the country's growth at 7.6 per cent for 2023-24.
As such strong GDP growth rate data released on 29-02-2024 therefore on next day ie last Friday firstly up moves were seen after positive opening and fresh consolidation developed at intraday higher levels as well as after this Nifty moved up sharply. Last 4 hours up moves were with downward corrections which means that fresh consolidation at intraday higher levels also and intraday selling patterns were not seen last Friday therefore more up moves are expected in the coming sessions.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is up.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22353.30 on 01-03-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts. As Intermediate Term indicators are suggeting on going rally continuation and in traday charts of last Friday is also showing only consolidation patterns therefore on going rally will remain continued in the beginning of coming week
As Weekly indicator Stochastic is in Overbought zone and MACD is near life time high therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are mature for Intermediate Term correction. Let selling patterns complete on EOD charts and complete selling patterns develop on intradat charts then Short to intermediate term correction will be seen. Nifty closed near life time highest last Friday therefore there is no resistances. Immediate supports below last Friday closing aae as follows:-
1- 22146-22210
2- 21861-21962
3- 21795-21860
4- 21653-21690
5- 21544-21628
New life time top formations with 356 points gains was seen last Friday after the news of India's GDP growth zooming to 8.4% in Quarter-3 of FY24 and FY 2023-24 growth pegged at 7.6%. AS intraday selling patterns were not seen last Friday therefore strong GDP news led on going rally will remain continued in the coming sessions and correction beginning will be considered only after fresh selling patterns formations on intraday charts and on going selling patterns completion on EOD charts.
